Armenia warns about Turkish influence in Europe

Turkey is currently making headlines all over the world. News about Syria, Libya, the tension in the eastern Mediterranean, the fight against the Kurds together with Iran on Iraqi territory, the European migration crisis, the support to Qatar and now their support to the Azeris in the war in Azerbaijan. 

A week ago, two days before the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh broke out again, social networks published a photograph of Turkish militiamen on a plane. Rumours said they were being flown in from northern Syria and Libya to Azerbaijan. At first it looked like a hoax, but it has now been confirmed by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH): Turkey is present in Azerbaijan with soldiers and weapons. 

The Ottoman country's intervention in this territorial war between Armenians and Azeris over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh is causing the Armenians, who had 20% of the Azeri country invaded since 1994, to withdraw. This has provoked a total rejection among the Armenian ranks who have been denouncing the constant intervention of Turkish F-16 fighters. 

The Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian warned on Sunday that Europe could face pressure from “Turkey next to Vienna” if the international community misjudges the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Armenian leader is thus asking for a clear position of the European Union towards the conflict, trying to make them condemn Turkey's actions against their troops. 

“I hope for a precise position. If the international community takes a wrong geopolitical approach in this situation, Europe should expect to run alongside Vienna to Turkey,” said Pashinian in an interview with the German daily ‘Bild’.

For his part, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has since Friday reiterated his country's full support for Azerbaijan in its confrontation with Armenia, and has predicted that the struggle "will continue until the liberation of Nagorno-Karabakh", the separatist enclave of the Armenian population in Azerbaijan.
 

Turkey and Armenia share a 268-kilometre border, with countries such as Georgia to the north and Iran to the south. For Pashinian, “Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia are the front lines of civilization”. “The Armenians in the South Caucasus are the final obstacle to Turkey’s expansion north, south-east and east. Turkey’s imperialist policy extends well beyond the Caucasus,” he warned.

Despite the fact that the Turkish president has an excellent relationship with the Azeri president Ilham Aliyev, Pashinian considers Armenia as the territorial block that holds Turkey back. Pashinian has stressed that the current escalation of the conflict, which began a week ago, is “much worse” than it was in 2016. “At its worst, it can be compared to what happened in 1915, when the first genocide of the In the 20th century, more than 1.5 million Armenians were murdered, “he said. 

The Turkish state is moving towards “a new genocide”. “The world needs to know what is happening in Nagorno-Karabakh,” he added. The war between Armenia and Azerbaijan during 1987 and 1994 left approximately 30,000 dead and more than a million displaced. When the ceasefire was declared, Armenia had gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh, which became independent as the Republic of Artsaj and, moreover, occupied 20% of Azeri territory to ensure control of this new Armenian enclave.

The international community attempted to create a climate of dialogue through the Minsk Group and the Madrid Agreements, but after years of insolvency and political stalemate, the countries at odds have decided to take up arms again. The surprise here is Turkey's role in directly supporting Aliyev's troops. 

Hundreds of casualties and injuries are currently being reported on both sides, but the figures have yet to be confirmed. Armenia has banned all men aged between 24 and 55 from leaving the country, and this weekend the leader of the Republic of Artsaj, Araik Aratunian, appears to have been seriously wounded on the front. 

The capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, Stepanakert, is suffering its third day of unremitting siege. The first shells fell on the city (home to some 50,000 inhabitants) at around 06:30 local time (02:30 GMT), with intervals of about ten minutes. The bombardment later moved to the outskirts of Stepanakert, where the fog makes it difficult for the Azeri armed forces' drones to operate. Last Sunday, the Karabakh capital was also attacked three times with rockets. 

Artsrun Hovhannisyan, spokesman for the Armenian Ministry of Defence, said that in yesterday's attacks the Azeri forces used Polonez and Smerch rocket systems, which considerably damaged the city's infrastructure. According to the NKR authorities, 18 civilians have been killed and 80 injured on this territory since September 27, when the military action broke out.
 

The Armenian leader recalled Ankara's interventions in the eastern Mediterranean, Libya, the Middle East, Iraq and Syria. Turkey "transfers terrorists from Syria to fight against Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, and the Turkish army is involved in the war," the Prime Minister denounced once again.  

"This is a sign of an imperialist attitude that seeks to restore the Ottoman Empire", the Armenian leader reiterates. It is exactly 97 years since this empire was dissolved and the new world and political order seems to make things very difficult for Erdogan to regain the territorial influence he had in Turkey centuries ago. 

But his actions leave many leaders who do not understand what the strategic lines of the Turkish country are. As for the European Union, Turkey has always intended to become a member country, a fact rejected on several occasions by the Commission.  

Despite this, Turkey is Europe's great migratory buffer. Erdogan is holding thousands of refugees in exchange for European funds to prevent them from crossing borders and settling in the unitary countries. This great migratory responsibility, together with the presence of gas pipes that cross the Anatolian country to supply heating to Northern Europe, are the main reasons why Europe does not feel comfortable sanctioning and criticising Turkey.

This is well known to President Erdogan, who has been walking two large oil exploration ships around the eastern Mediterranean waters all summer with the excuse that Libya has given him the sea bed to operate at will. In view of these activities, which were violating the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Greece and Cyprus, the three countries began to raise the political tension that reached the stage of debate within the European Commission in September.  

The European Union has raised the tone against Turkey by leaving the door open to the possibility of dialogue. The Commission met last week to discuss Turkey, Belarus, the Brexit and other issues of economic recovery. No unanimous conclusions were reached on Turkey and it is "too late" until December to respond to Ankara's "provocative game in the Eastern Mediterranean", a senior EU official reported on Friday. 

We will have to wait another two months to see how the Union acts in all the Turkish situations that are causing the EU-27 discomfort, from the migratory crisis and gas and oil supplies to the eastern Mediterranean, particularly the recent clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh, which could leave news with devastating figures in the coming days.