The arms embargo on Iran has come to an end

In 2007, the United Nations imposed a formal arms embargo on the Iranian theocracy amid growing tensions over the country's nuclear programme.

Tehran's response was to suspend its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and move forward with its nuclear programme despite UN "intimidation".

The sanctions imposed included: the purchase or acquisition of dollars; trade in Iran's gold or precious metals; oil-related transactions; those linked to the energy sector; and the embargo on arms transfers.

For a long time, Iran's armed forces have been surviving on what they had. Although the United States and the United Kingdom sold weapons to the pro-Western Shah in the 1960s and 1970s, the Islamic Republic that followed him lost more than half of that equipment in Saddam Hussein's eight-year war with Iraq.

UN sanctions were coupled with European Union trade restrictions. All this deepened the economic crisis that was already affecting the regime.

In 2015, however, the far-reaching nuclear agreement was reached between Iran and six world powers: the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France and Germany. The agreement was signed after more than two years of negotiations. Known as the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA), it was considered a milestone in the foreign policy of the then president of the United States, Barak Obama.

The pact envisaged lifting the economic sanctions against Teheran in exchange for it limiting its atomic energy programme. This programme had aroused certain concerns among the international powers about its possible use in a hypothetical nuclear war.

Yet, in 2018 it seemed that everything was falling apart. The arrival of ultra-conservative Donald Trump at the White House, who was already talking during the 2016 presidential campaign about withdrawing the 2015 agreement, signified the departure of the world's leading power.

This meant that the Trump Administration was defying its European allies, who warned that this measure could have devastating humanitarian consequences; meanwhile, the Trump Administration imposed new sanctions on Iran's financial sector.

London, Paris and Berlin, continued their dialogues with Tehran to save the JCPOA. "Together, we emphasize our continuing commitment to the JCPOA. This agreement remains important for our shared security", reads a joint communiqué from the Governments of France, the United Kingdom and Germany.

Since Iran accepted the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), it has been looking forward to the scheduled lifting in October 2020 of a UN embargo on arms transfers. But, according to Barbara Slavin, senior researcher at the Atlantic Council, Iran has shown a significant ability to develop systems on its own, reducing the need for expensive imports. Its purchases will likely be limited, therefore, by both economic and geopolitical constraints, including the impact of US sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic and caution on the part of potential suppliers.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that October 18 is the day when the UN arms embargo against his nation will be expired to enable Tehran to start weapons trade.

“On the next Sunday, we will announce this good news to the nation that 10 years of the unjust arms embargo is lifted,” Rouhani said while addressing a cabinet session on Wednesday. And added “we have fought the United States for four years over this issue", as reported by the Iranian news agency Mehr.

The United States was determined to ensure that Iran could neither buy nor sell weapons. When the end of the arms embargo loomed in August, Washington attempted to push through a resolution at the UN Security Council that would have extended it indefinitely. China and Russia opposed the resolution, while France, Germany and the United Kingdom abstained from voting, isolating the United States and highlighting its marginal position on Iran.

The Islamic Republic is now in the process of looking for possible sellers. Iran could encourage trade with Russia to supply new weapons by granting it greater access to Iranian military bases. In the 1990s, it sought equipment from the Eastern Bloc after the end of the Cold War, but was hampered by political pressure from the United States and lack of funds. 

In 2019, the US Defence Intelligence Agency announced that Iran would start buying high-quality military equipment from Russia, and this week Levan Jagarian, Russia's ambassador to Iran, said his government would consider selling one of its advanced S-400 missile systems to the ayatollahs' regime.