Biden in Poland marks the beginning of a new phase in the Ukrainian war
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has served to clean up Poland's external image. Perceived until February last year as an uncomfortable partner of the West because of its illiberal drift, the democratic retreat set in motion in the country in the face of criticism from the European Union by the Law and Justice party (PiS) of former president Jarosław Kaczyński and his successor Andrzej Duda has been relegated to the background by the new role that Warsaw has assumed as a spearhead against the threat of Russia on NATO's eastern flank.
Together with the Baltic states, Poland has led the EU's campaign to support Ukraine, taking in more than 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees and armouring its armed forces with a record increase in defence spending of more than 3% of GDP. Moreover, on the eve of the first anniversary of the invasion, Warsaw has provided Kiev with more economic, military and humanitarian assistance than most Western countries, second only to London and Washington, and has adopted a much more aggressive rhetoric than it has used against Moscow in recent decades.
The Polish government has turned the country into a logistical centre for channelling the flow of Western arms received by the Ukrainian army and has defended tooth and nail the imposition of harsher sanctions against the Russian economy by EU institutions. For Warsaw, Moscow poses an existential threat. It is a product of history, inherited since Tsarist Russia annexed parts of Poland in the late 18th century. In fact, Poland did not regain independence until the end of the Great War, although it would lose it again during the Second World War. In 1945, Soviet victory brought with it the imposition of a communist regime, which Poland managed to leave behind in 1989, becoming the first European country to leave the Eastern Bloc.
"Poland's geostrategic importance is undeniable and its response to Russia's war of aggression has improved its international standing," writes Soňa Muzikárová, a political economist and advisor to the Slovak Foreign Ministry, on the Project Syndicate blog. "With leaders who understand the nuances and complexities of dealing with Russia, it can serve as an effective intermediary for Central and Eastern European interests in Brussels and for Europe's interests in the world."
US President Joe Biden is aware of Poland's strategic importance. That is why he has chosen its capital, Warsaw, as the venue for the second stop on his latest European tour, aimed at convincing his Western partners to speed up the delivery of arms to Ukraine to stop the imminent offensive by Russian troops in the east of the country and, if possible, to repel the blow with a major counteroffensive that will tip the balance of the war. It is a complicated undertaking, but the White House occupant has the strong backing of the countries on NATO's eastern flank.
The visit has also been interpreted as an unequivocal message of US support for Poland, a country that has previously warned its Western partners, especially its European neighbours, of the Kremlin's methods. "The Poles have been particularly alarmed by signs of deepening ties between Berlin and Moscow, and openly opposed the German partnership in Russia's Nord Stream II pipeline," recalls analyst Diane Francis at the Atlantic Council. "They warned that the pipeline allowed Putin to bypass Ukraine's gas transit system and would expose the country to a full-scale invasion, leaving all of Europe vulnerable to Russian energy blackmail."
Few heeded the words of Warsaw, whose scaremongering was seen as an outburst of intransigence conditioned by decades of Russian imperialism, occupation and oppression, which the Baltic states also suffered. But 24 February marked a turning point. European countries are now beginning to comply with the Polish government's demands. Just a few weeks ago, Polish pressure on Olaf Scholz's German government was decisive in unblocking the delivery of Leopard battle tanks to Kiev. Polish diplomacy is not satisfied and is now working to unblock the shipment of F-16 fighter jets.
Biden has expressed his gratitude for the gesture by visiting the country for the second time in less than a year. The US president was already in Warsaw in March last year to make Washington's presence in Eastern Europe more visible. This time, the White House wants to use Biden's surprise visit to Kiev on Monday to reiterate its commitment to Ukraine and galvanise its European allies. It did so on the same day that Putin delivered his State of the Nation address from the Kremlin.
Polish President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki received Biden and members of his administration in Warsaw. They will discuss new ways to assist Ukraine and expand the number of US troops deployed in the country. The US has about 10,000 troops on Polish soil. In June 2022, Biden announced the establishment of a permanent military base in Poland with the goal of "enhancing US-NATO interoperability on the eastern flank", according to the White House.
"Poland has used Russia's invasion of Ukraine to improve its international standing and effectively lobby for Central and Eastern European interests," Muzikárová notes. "But to be taken seriously, it must defend democratic values and freedoms at home with the same determination it has shown in its support for Ukraine". The Slovak political economist refers to the controversial reforms that the ruling PiS has been passing since 2015.
The Kaczyński government ended the independence of the judiciary, stifled independent media, curtailed access to abortion and passed measures against women's and LGBT rights. The European Commission, in fact, went so far as to freeze pandemic recovery funds because of attacks on the rule of law. President Duda has reversed some of these measures to free up some of the allocated funds, but the loss of civil rights remains palpable. So much so that Biden himself held up Poland as an example of the 'rise of totalitarian regimes around the world' alongside countries such as Aleksandr Lukashenko's Belarus and Viktor Orbán's Hungary just over a year ago. However, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Warsaw's unequivocal support for Kiev put this perception to bed.
General elections in Poland are scheduled for autumn this year. They will serve to take the pulse of the country. "But to emerge decisively as a new force in the European Union, it will have to work harder to win the trust of other Western governments. That means shedding its image as Hungary's illiberal fellow traveller and addressing its own democratic shortcomings head-on," Muzikárová stresses.
The US president will use his stay in Warsaw to meet with the leaders of the Bucharest Nine, the group founded eight years ago after Russia's invasion of Crimea and made up of former Warsaw Pact members now in NATO. The list is long. It comprises Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, Romania and Slovakia. It is the Eastern axis that forms the backbone of the West's response to Russian aggression, with a few exceptions.
Although it has gained political weight in recent months, the balance of power has not shifted entirely eastwards. Washington remains the dominant power in the Atlantic Alliance. Behind it are several Western European capitals. "Without the Germans, things don't move, without the Americans, things don't move for sure," a senior Western European diplomat told Politico. Asked about the shift of NATO's centre of gravity eastwards at the Munich Security Conference, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that "what has shifted eastwards is NATO's presence".
That is the main handicap on the eastern flank. Another weakness is the Hungarian presence. The Hungarian prime minister has not even severed ties with Russia. Orbán has made it difficult to pass successive rounds of sanctions in the European Council. He is also the only one who has not agreed to provide military aid to Kiev, and when Zelenski visited Brussels last week, he refused to greet him publicly. He avoided all possible contact in front of the cameras. His ideological proximity to Putin is undeniable. Nothing to do with Poland, his former partner in the Visegrad group, with which he used to form a common front against the EU for its illiberal drift.
America Coordinator: José Antonio Sierra