Carlos Berzosa: "Europe must have inclusive policies for all refugees"

In the latest edition of 'De cara al mundo', on Onda Madrid, Atalayar's radio programme, we had the intervention of Carlos Berzosa, professor emeritus at the Complutense University of Madrid (UCM). Berzosa analysed in the microphones of 'De cara al mundo' the economic consequences that the war between Russia and Ukraine will have for Spain. In addition, the UCM professor pointed out the need to create inclusive policies regarding the situation of refugees in the European Union.

Will the sanctions imposed on Putin, Russian oligarchs and others be enough to stop Russia's invasion of Ukraine?

I don't think so, experience shows that sanctions have little influence on politicians' decision-making. However, we must realise that sanctions will create a major problem for the Russian economy and above all for its citizens, who will suffer from these restrictions and whose living conditions will decline. In a large part of the Russian population, living conditions are low enough that they are now getting worse, and this could lead to a situation in which citizens' unease at what is happening generates a desire for change. In Russia we are seeing that there are minorities who are demonstrating against what is happening and are being arrested, repression is very strong and people are afraid. Maybe hunger and shortages are making the population more mobilised and that could be a brake. Not so much the restrictions themselves, but the consequences of the restrictions, really, if the population protests and demonstrates in the face of the shortages of products that could come upon them.

Several Russian oligarchs distance themselves from the position taken by the Russian government...

Indeed, there are several oligarchs who have distanced themselves from Putin, clearly expressing their opposition to this war, saying that it is not possible to continue down this path because it will harm them and their business. This part of the oligarchy, which we don't know how many of them there are, can have a great deal of influence because they are the ones who have economic power and an important decision-making capacity, and in some way they can have an impact on Putin's actions. 

Maybe that's why we saw the image of Putin yesterday, where his collaborators were standing a few metres away. Does he fear that someone could make an attempt on his life?

It is possible; on the one hand there is the secret service, and on the other hand there is the military, and they are not always in agreement with each other. What we are seeing now is that many Russian soldiers who are very young are dying and that can also influence the army. Similarly, we have to take into account the influence of society when coffins start arriving in Russia, even if they are hidden, there will always be families or environments that find out about them and that creates a certain unease, and that can also create fissures among the ruling elite.

Can you specify how these sanctions will affect us in Spain?

Fundamentally, we are going to notice the rise in the price of energy, electricity, gas and oil, and of course this generates costs for families, companies and transport. In addition to the uncertainty generated by a war, this causes a drop in investment and a slowdown in economic growth. To put this in context, we have come out of an economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and just as we were recovering, now comes inflation as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war, but also uncertainty for investors when it comes to making investment decisions on expanding their facilities, improving their technologies, etc. All of this can have a big impact on employment, so the future for the economy is really going to be quite negative.

You have experience with refugees, as manager of the Spanish Commission for Refugee Aid, do you think the European Union's decision is the most appropriate?

In principle I think it is right, we have a great human tragedy before us, according to UNHCR we have more than a million refugees in just a few days, the number continues to grow and therefore the response of the EU at this time is very different to what it has been in other cases such as Afghanistan, Syria, etc. It has also been very different in other countries such as Hungary and Poland, in the case of Germany Merkel even decreed "open doors" for refugees, Spain has not been very generous, although it has not opposed the arrival of refugees. At the moment the EU's position is very positive, we are seeing the case of Poland, which is a country that has always refused the arrival of refugees, just like Hungary, right now, there are many volunteers who are helping at the border to provide food, clothes, to all those who arrive.

Of course, but this opens the debate about whether the reaction is from the governments or rather from civil society...

Of course we can open the debate that it is up to society to react and not the governments, but the regime has not closed borders and has opened two more, so at the moment the region is admitting Ukrainians. There will always be the reading: "Yes to the Ukrainians because they are our people", white, blond, tall, etc, and those who are not our people, such as the Syrians who have another religion, no, that is a problem and that is what the ultra-right is proposing. The other day VOX in Parliament said that some are, but others are not, I believe that Europe must change in this respect, we cannot discriminate because both are human beings, among whom there are many children. We cannot begin to distinguish between one and the other and we must have inclusive policies for refugees. 

Indeed, there is a need for more inclusive policies...

According to statistics, the countries that receive the most refugees are the underdeveloped ones, contrary to what everyone thinks, which is that they are the developed ones. The first European country to receive refugees, Germany, is in fifth place in the ranking of countries that receive the most refugees. Therefore, we must ask ourselves why the majority of refugees are not in our territories and why we can and should receive them because it is a very low number compared to the total population. We have to make a very different policy, during the 2008 crisis the European Union had two failures: the austerity policies as a way out and the refugee policy. Now it has changed and in the face of these austerity practices it has launched expansionary policies and in the face of refugees it seems to be changing the tone of action, and this will hopefully be achieved with a more united Europe.

In the end, this only strengthens Europe's position...

That's right, this creates a stronger European Union because countries are beginning to see the horns of the bull, especially those bordering Russia, and this can make us more effective and united.