Chad's future is at stake
"The marshal has just breathed his last breath defending territorial integrity on the battlefield," said Azem Bermandoa Agouna, spokesman for the army of the Republic of Chad. These were the first official statements to confirm that President Idriss Déby Itno had died on the battlefield in his fight against the Front for the Alternation and Concord of Chad (FACT). This group entered Chadian territory on 11 April, the day of the elections in Chad, and launched an attack in the regions of Kanem and Tibesti. On that day, fierce fighting began between this rebel group and government forces, particularly in the north of the country. After the death of the former president, it is his son Mahamat Idriss Déby who has taken over the situation, but not before dissolving the government and parliament. He is part of a military transitional council that will hold power for 18 months before free elections are called.
Déby took power in December 1990 following a rebellion against his predecessor Hissène Habré. Since then, Déby has ruled the country with an iron fist, winning elections on six different occasions, the most recent of which was held on 11 April.
During his almost 30 years in office, the now ex-president has faced numerous coup attempts, one of which nearly toppled him in 2008, when rebels reached as far as the capital, N'Djamena. Internal rebellions and the growing threat of jihadism, especially in the last 10 years, have also been a constant. Despite ample oil reserves, the country's endemic corruption and volatile environment have contributed to its underdevelopment. According to UN figures, around 80 per cent of Chadians live below the poverty line.
On the one hand, the situation became even more tense from February onwards, when Déby stood as a candidate for the elections. This tension was transferred to the streets, where numerous demonstrations were held and repressed by the police, resulting in numerous injuries and arrests. On the other hand, an already weak and divided opposition, which was also unable to articulate a common front, suffered the harsh repression that also led to arrests and caused some of the main opposition candidates to withdraw their candidacy. All this meant that Idriss Déby's re-election was never in jeopardy regardless of the growing discontent mentioned above. Although the result was relatively clear beforehand, it was not made public until 18 April by the Independent National Electoral Commission, which stated that the government candidate had won with 79.32% of the vote.
As noted above, the FACT-led rebel offensive that culminated in the death of the Chadian president began on the same day as the elections. This group, reportedly made up mostly of Toubous, entered Chad from Libya, where they have their base of operations. This group has been supported by the Union of Resistance Forces (UFR), which has twice put the country in check. The first in 2008, when only a French bombing deprived them of overthrowing Déby after arriving in the capital, and the second in 2019, when they were bombed by French planes as they entered the country from Libya. Although the Chadian minister initially stated that the military situation was under control by the army, the various countries with embassies in the country asked their citizens and non-essential personnel to leave for fear that the situation would escalate. Due to the complicated terrain and the isolation of certain areas, the information that has arrived over the last few days has been contradictory, and it is not known for certain what has happened on some occasions.
Despite the contradictory information, the FACT claimed to have taken the entire Kanem region. Subsequently, on 18 April, and apparently in the face of the rebels' advance towards the capital, the army deployed in the most important points of N'Djamena. That same day, the FACT withdraws northwards after suffering numerous losses in combat in the Kanem region.
After a few days of fighting, the last piece of news to be expected was the death of Idriss Déby, which came as a real surprise. This news has come as a bitter shock to government supporters. This death follows Déby's decision to command the Chadian army on the front line itself, although the exact circumstances of his death are not known.
Chad's future is uncertain. Déby has been a strong ally of Western powers, especially the US and France. France has described Déby as a "courageous friend" and said in a statement that "Chad is losing a soldier and president who has worked tirelessly for the security of the country and the region for 30 years". He also offered his condolences to the family. President Macron had planned to accompany his counterpart in Chad, which has earned him criticism from different media, accusing him of being the guarantor of a predatory and corrupt regime.
Western powers have found in Déby a tireless fighter against jihadism. In recent years, the Chadian army has engaged in numerous clashes around Lake Chad against Boko Haram and the Islamic State of West Africa as well as Al-Qaeda affiliates in the Sahel region. While it is assumed that Mahamat Idriss Déby will follow in his father's footsteps in the fight against jihadism, it is unclear whether Western partners will have the same confidence in him as in his predecessor.
Another question to consider is how this will affect the Sahel G5, to which Chad contributes troops. This framework of regional cooperation is increasingly questioned by France and the US as they see that violence is not decreasing but increasing over time. The death of this strongman may cause these countries to rethink various questions, especially whether it is profitable to continue deploying soldiers in such remote places, and even more so with such discreet results.
The geographical situation of the country is also complicated. Chad is completely surrounded by very unstable countries in which there are different conflicts, and in which Chad is more directly or indirectly involved. For example, to the north it borders Libya, where it collaborated with LNA forces fighting for Haftar. This is not its only influence over Libya, as it also acts as a buffer to stop migrants trying to reach Libya and use it as a bridge to Europe. To the east is Sudan, and more specifically the unstable Darfur region, which is home to more than a million refugees on Chadian soil. To the south is the Central African Republic, a country bled dry by a civil conflict that has been raging for years and where Chadian soldiers, rebels and mercenaries have all been involved in the fighting at one time or another. To the southwest Cameroon and Nigeria. The former is embroiled in a battle in the Anglophone Ambazonia and the latter in a fight against the Islamist insurgency in the border areas with Chad. Finally, there is Niger, where Chad has many troops deployed in the west of the territory and has already suffered dozens of casualties.
All of this, together with the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, could put an end to years of attempts to pacify the region. If this happens, we could be facing a far worse scenario than what we have seen so far and become a kind of highway for the various jihadist and criminal groups of all kinds.
For the time being, in addition to the dissolution of parliament and the government, it has been agreed to establish a curfew between 18:00 in the evening and 05:00 in the morning and the closure of all air and land borders. The first reaction of the Front for Change and Concord in Chad has been to announce that it will continue its offensive on N'Djamena and overthrow Déby, which has also been joined by the Military Command Council for the Salvation of the Republic, another rebel group based in Libya.