China and Russia monopolise reactions to Biden's Afghanistan speech

After cancelling his holiday and cloistering himself in the Camp David compound, from where he followed the evolution of Afghanistan during the Taliban avalanche, US President Joe Biden travelled to the White House on Monday to answer to the American people for the abrupt abandonment of the Asian country and Washington's ineffective actions over the last two decades. The explanations, however, reached all corners of the globe, especially Beijing and Moscow, two of the capitals that are trying to establish a path of dialogue with the insurgents and thus capitalise on the influence of the region after the departure of the US.

Biden consistently defended his decision to leave the country. "This is what I firmly believe: it is wrong to order US troops to intervene when Afghanistan's own armed forces would not do so. Afghanistan's political leaders were incapable of coming together for the sake of their people, incapable of negotiating their country's future when the chips were down. They would never have done so as long as US troops remained in Afghanistan bearing the brunt of the fighting for them. And our real strategic competitors, China and Russia, would like nothing better than for the United States to continue channelling billions of dollars in resources and attention to stabilising Afghanistan indefinitely."

Without a trace of self-criticism, Biden underpinned a speech that left no one indifferent. Although the bulk of the justifications were aimed at US public opinion, the Democrat launched several messages between the lines addressed to the international community. Beyond the direct appeal to the Chinese and Russians, the president reinforced Washington's new position in Afghanistan: "We will continue to support the Afghan people. We will lead with our diplomacy, our international influence and our humanitarian assistance. We will continue to advance regional diplomacy and engagement to prevent violence and instability. We will continue to stand up for the basic rights of the Afghan people, women and girls, as we do around the world.

Like sharks on the scent of blood, Beijing and Moscow caught the moment of weakness of their main geopolitical contender. Biden himself acknowledged during his speech that the Taliban advance "developed faster than we had anticipated", although he blamed the Afghan forces. In this sense, the profuse comparisons between the images of the Kabul airport and the fall of Saigon have a point: to highlight the shortcomings of the US military in fighting an enemy that is waging a guerrilla war on uncharted terrain. A second Vietnam.

"Some insist that it is not a good time to leave. But when will it be a good time to leave," Biden asked in April. The answers started coming in on Monday. The first to speak out was China's foreign ministry, which denounced the negative impact of the "hasty" withdrawal of US troops. China's foreign policy chief, Wang Yi, told his counterpart Antony Blinken. In the telephone conversation, Wang criticised Washington's strategy of "arbitrarily applying a foreign model to a country with different cultural and historical conditions".

The Chinese foreign minister assured the secretary of the US State Department that the Asian giant is willing to work together in a coordinated manner to avoid a new civil war or a humanitarian disaster in Afghanistan. In any case, Beijing has been paving the way for some time and is practically ready for the new scenario. Its main interest in Afghanistan, beyond investments, is to shield its security in relation to the Uighur Muslim minority in the Xinjiang region, which is heavily persecuted in China, and to wrest the sceptre from the United States as an influential force in the country. For this reason, Wang himself met with Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar in Tianjin at the end of July. Their policy of non-interference is an endorsement of the fundamentalists.

Nor was the Kremlin's reaction swift. Moscow, in search of stability in its backyard, seems to be more comfortable with the presence of the Taliban than with Ghani in power. At least that is how the Russian ambassador to Afghanistan, Dmitry Zhirnov, put it, reflecting Russia's interest in sealing ties with the insurgents. Zhirnov described the approach adopted by the Taliban in the first hours after the occupation of the capital as "good, positive and practical". In this regard, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that it will keep its embassy in Kabul operational.

The radical group will hold talks with the Russian delegation deployed in the country on Tuesday. So far, the Taliban have ensured the protection of diplomatic personnel and, according to Moscow, the West's concerns have not yet materialised. However, Putin's aspirations in Afghanistan include keeping border threats at bay. This explains the Kremlin's collaboration with the Taliban over the past decade despite having labelled the rebels a "terrorist organisation" in 2003. The Kremlin's plans are to minimise US capabilities in Central Asia and set its agenda. 

"The defeat and withdrawal of the United States in Afghanistan should be an opportunity to restore life, security and peace in Afghanistan," said Iran's new president, Ebrahim Raisi. Relations between the Islamic Republic and the Taliban are not entirely clear, but Tehran has admitted to hosting delegations of Sunni radicals in the past. Anti-Western sentiment seems to unite them and, in this scenario, Iran will seek to defend its interests in the country at all costs.

"I stand firmly behind my decision," Biden said towards the end of the speech. "I know my decision will be criticised. But I would rather bear all that criticism than pass this decision on to another president of the United States, another one, a fifth. Because it's the right one, it's the right decision for our people". Only time will tell if the US leader is right. The clock is ticking and Washington's competitors seem to have a clear strategy.