China conducts new military exercise in Taiwan Strait

China has conducted a new military exercise in the Taiwan Strait between 6 and 8 May, according to an official statement from the People's Liberation Army (the Chinese armed forces). Both its air force and navy were reportedly involved in the exercise, in territories to the east and southwest of the island of Taiwan. The objective, according to the PLA, was to improve their joint operations capabilities.

China reportedly deployed up to five destroyers, a frigate and a replenishment ship, led by the aircraft carrier Liaoning, one of two such ships in Beijing's possession, according to the Taipei Times, citing Japanese and Taiwanese officials. 

During these exercises, the Taiwanese Defence Ministry announced daily incursions by Chinese air forces from 3-9 May into its Air Defence Identification Zone, a large geographical area beyond Taiwanese airspace, which Taipei uses to monitor potential threats. 

This is not the first time China has taken such an action, but has become a regular occurrence that it repeats every few weeks.

Taiwan, or the Republic of China, its official name, is a state of limited recognition separated from the rest of mainland China during the country's Civil War (1927-1949), following the withdrawal to the island of the Nationalist Kuomintang government led by Chang Kai-shek. 

Both Taipei and Beijing claim to constitute the real China, although Taiwanese pro-independence sentiment, which aspires to establish a state of its own, has grown strongly in recent decades, with increasing support from the United States and its allies, who nevertheless only recognise the People's Republic of China (PRC). 

According to Xulio Ríos, director of the Observatory of Chinese Policy (OPCh), with this type of exercise "China intends to send a message to the Taiwanese government and its supporters of its determination to achieve unification". In this case, Ríos continues, Beijing is responding to the visit of a delegation from the party of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to the island, as well as statements made by Kishida himself in London in which he warned of a possible Chinese emulation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a fear that has been gaining weight in Taipei and Western chancelleries.

Meanwhile, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu told CNN that "Taiwan is prepared to defend itself against China" and called for more US weapons to do so, emulating the Ukrainian example. 

Meanwhile, CIA Director Williams Burns said that the initial failure of the Russian invasion is affecting Chinese calculations about Taiwan. "I don't think at all that this has eroded Xi's [Jinping] determination to take control of Taiwan in the future, but I think it is something that is affecting his calculus about how and when," Burns concluded.

Officially, China continues to emphasise "peaceful reunification" with the island. This was mentioned by President Xi Jinping, who last December declared that "national reunification by peaceful means is in the overall interest of the Chinese nation, including our compatriots in Taiwan" and again proposed the idea of "one country, two systems", the formula used to reintegrate Hong Kong and Macao, which implies a broad regime of autonomy.

However, Beijing has never renounced the military route, which it reserves for itself in the event of a declaration of independence for the island in accordance with its 2005 Anti-Secession Law. Moreover, 2049, the centenary year of the establishment of the PRC, is seen as a possible deadline for reunification, although some analysts have even suggested that China could seek a solution by 2027, the centenary year of the PLA.

But China's plans seem to have been upended by the electoral triumph of the pro-independence People's Democratic Party (PDP) on the island, whose leader, Tsai Ing-wen, won both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections against the KMT, China's preferred partner. Since the PDP came to power, relations between Beijing and Taipei have broken down, and the CCP has opted for increased pressure and isolation of the island, after a period of rapprochement under the KMT's Ma Ying-jeou (2008-2016) presidency.

Xulio Ríos points to the importance of the 2024 presidential elections, which could be a turning point if independence once again wins, encouraging supporters of a military solution. 

This option would, however, entail many risks for China, and could disrupt, among other things, its economic development plans or its positioning as a global power.

"What is clear," concludes Ríos, "is that the CCP will not easily give up reunification, but neither will it sacrifice everything it has achieved so far on the continent to achieve this goal, however important it may be"