The Cold War being fought in the skies of Syria

Oil is and has always been the desired wealth of the Middle East. The much-prized black gold, a relatively scarce resource in Syria compared to other countries in the region, has marked the evolution of some of the bloodiest conflicts of the 21st century. In recent years, Syria has become the scene of combat between the United States and Russia. However, in recent months, the war has moved to heaven, especially after the US announced last May its decision to withdraw from the Open Skies treaty, a document framed within the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, OSCE, and in which 34 countries participate. This pact allows the signatory countries to fly over any part of the territory of another member state. 

"Russia has no friends. They fear our immensity. We have only two friends who can be trusted: our army and our navy'. This sentence, pronounced by Tsar Alexander III of Russia more than a hundred years ago, still marks the foreign policy of the country presided by Vladimir Putin. Moscow's military and diplomatic campaign in Syria has been the most important Russian operation since the end of the Cold War, a political, economic, social and military confrontation that divided the world after World War II. Its presence in the conflict that ravaged the country led by Bachar Al-Asad, an important regional partner, has largely transformed Russian military thinking, which has decided in recent years to expand its influence in the Middle East, and to focus on the development of its arms industry.

On 27 May, the United States Africa Command (Africom) revealed that Russia had flown over Libya with 14 MiG-29 and Su-24 fighter planes to support the offensive of the leader of the Libyan National Army (LNA), Khalifa Haftar, against the United Nations-backed National Accord Government (NAG). Moscow has denied these allegations, but has confirmed the delivery of more MiG-29 fighter planes to Syria.

The Russian Embassy in Damascus has announced through the social network Twitter that a "second batch" of MiG-29 fighter planes have been delivered to the Syrian military "in the framework of cooperation in the field of defence". "The Russian side delivered the second batch of MiG-29 fighter planes in their advanced and modernized version to the Syrian Arab Army," a Syrian military source told the SANA news agency. 

These planes were handed over in a ceremony held at the Hemeymim base in the Syrian province of Latakia. The effectiveness of the MiG-29 fighters is greater than its previous generation, according to this news agency which has highlighted that "from June 1, 2020, Syrian pilots will begin to carry out missions in these planes in Syrian airspace". Meanwhile, the US roadmap for Syria is led by the opening of a new base in the enclave of Deir Ezzor, in the east of the country, to reinforce its positions in the conflict that this nation has been suffering since 2011. 

At the same time that Russia announced the delivery of MiG-29 fighter planes, the international coalition that the US leads to fight the terrorist group Daesh in Syria deployed a Patriot anti-missile system around the Koniko gas plant in the Deiz Ezzor region, in the northeast of the region; a deployment that took place several days after the SANA news agency reported that "a plane of the American occupation forces has dropped several heat balloons on the agricultural lands of the Shaddadi field, south of Al-Hasaka, setting fire to the wheat crops in this province". 

Russia, a staunch ally of the Syrian government, launched a military air campaign in 2015 to help Damascus recover parts of the country that were in rebel hands, backed by Turkey among other countries. Since then, Moscow has repeatedly insisted that the presence of the US-led coalition is "illegal". 

The creation of this coalition, which aims to coordinate various military operations to stop Daesh's advance, was announced in December 2015. A correspondent for the Syrian Observer newspaper said two weeks ago that coalition militias have been working around the Koniko plant, annexing an area of approximately 1,000 dunams to the field (10 dunams is equivalent to one hectare). The latest moves by the North American giant in the region show the interest this country is arousing in the United States, although they argue that its presence in northeast Syria is fundamental to keeping the country's oil fields out of Daesh's hands. ​​​​​​​

In recent months, the US has increased its military presence in Syria and has come to control several positions in oil and gas fields in the region in the face of the alleged threat of Daesh's resurgence in the region. In this context, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has reported this Thursday the death of at least three members of the regime's forces in an attack perpetrated by Daesh in the area of al-Rawda, east of Aqirbaat in eastern Hama. This London-based institution with a network of informants on Syrian soil has reported another attack on a checkpoint belonging to the regime's forces in the rural area of the city of Al-Sukhna in the Homs desert, in which at least four people have been killed. 

In this scenario, Russia has made clear its intention to expand into the US-controlled northeast region of Syria, an event that has led to increased tensions between the two powers. A week ago there was a clash between American and Russian troops in northeast Syria, after a Russian convoy moved through the territory controlled by the US-led international coalition. The clash blocked local civilian traffic for hours, prompting local police authorities to try to intervene, the daily Al Monitor reported. 

Several hours later, the standoff moved to the skies over the country. At least two helicopters, one Russian and one belonging to the US-led coalition, flew over the scene. This confrontation - the second one recorded in the area in recent days - comes after the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights assured that the Russian army is building a new military base in Qeser Dib, a village on the outskirts of Derik, which could pose a challenge to US influence in the region.  In recent months, Russia and the US have shared a series of tense encounters in the skies over northeast Syria, a fact that has led US authorities to accuse the Kremlin of testing Washington's determination. 

The latest events show how difficult it is to find a way to create a lasting change in diplomatic relations between Washington and Moscow, a diplomacy that in a way directly affects other countries such as Syria or Libya. The fact that this relationship is defined in terms of competition rather than cooperation jeopardises the future of this region. However, if the confidence-building measures that were successful during the Cold War were taken in a truly tense international context, it is possible to reach an agreement under the present circumstances.