La Guerra Fría del norte de África

In the latest edition of "De Cara al Mundo" on Onda Madrid, we had the participation of Gustavo de Arístegui, diplomat and international analyst, who reviewed current international affairs, with the focus on North Africa and the interplay of interests that has become a Cold War in the region. 

Are you concerned about the presence and activity of Russia and now Iran with the support of Algeria in North Africa and the Sahel? 

To the extent that all this worrying news is confirmed by various sources. Indeed, this is an extremely worrying escalation. There is a confluence of extraordinary risks in the Sahel and the Maghreb. This necessarily extends to Europe. It also obviously projects towards the Atlantic and, consequently, towards the American continent. Let's look at what might happen if Iran's influence and presence in this region continues to grow.  

Iran is by no means a disinterested ally; it gives aid in return for something. It knows very well that the weakest area to defend Europe is the Maghreb and the Sahel and it helps terrorist groups, even those that are its theoretical enemies, such as al-Qaeda, which is deeply anti-Shia. I do not believe that such an alliance will happen, but it is never impossible that some kind of connection will be established. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.  

But that is not the point. The point is that the effect of the presence of Iran and its henchman Hezbollah in this region of the world is frankly worrying. Of course, the withdrawal of many countries and multinational forces in this region does not help at all. Let us take into account, for example - and these are official figures - that in Burkina Faso more than 60%, if not nearly 70% of its territory is dominated by jihadist groups. Be it al-Qaeda in the Sahel or even cells close to the Islamic State.  

If to all this we also see that any coup d'état, insurrection or any other country that does not affect to get into the Russian orbit, then automatically Wagner's mercenaries help the opponent against those who are allies of the West. This has clearly become a particularly important chessboard in the global geopolitical game, in the geostrategic game of global stability. 

In a recent report by the Coordenadas Institute of Governance and Applied Economics, Jesús Sánchez Lambás, who is its vice-president, pointed out that the available information allows us to predict a double scenario of instability that makes it easier for Russia to build a pincer on the European Union: Ukraine in the north and the Sahara to the south, aggravating the energy supply crisis. Does this assessment by Mr Sánchez Lambás deserve credit? 

There is no doubt in my mind that this is the case. Russia has for many years been seeking to increase its presence and strength in different parts of the world. Sahelian Africa is one example, West Africa and East Africa is another. Whether through military agreements, arms supplies or commercial presence, although obviously Russia's foreign trade is much weaker than it seems and obviously it cannot play with oil and gas in those parts of the world either because it is not profitable. They are doing the same in Latin America, with much more force, of course, in the case of China, whose geo-economics and investment policy is one of its most important weapons of influence.  

Indeed, the pincer to which he refers seems to me not to be misplaced and is something that Western intelligence services and governments should take much more seriously and much more seriously into account.  

As for Algeria, the war rhetoric with which it has responded to a publication like Maroc Hebdo, which we all know to be very provocative, might suggest that somewhere in the Moroccan government there is some concern about a military move by Algeria against Morocco. 

Here the tension is evident. Diplomatic relations are broken. The rhetoric is extraordinarily virulent and let us hope that sanity and good sense prevails because frankly this, a confrontation between two countries that are trade and political allies of Europe, would be a disaster for Europe. This would no longer be a clampdown, it would be an unmitigated catastrophe if you had any kind of military tension in these regions. 

Moreover, US support for Morocco is clear, and was most recently reflected in the visit to Rabat by the US Chief of Staff, General Mark Milley, but just at the same time, a senior Russian security official also visited Algiers. But just at the same time, a senior Russian security official also visited Algiers. To what extent is this Cold War scenario likely to affect us? 

Well, I think it is affecting us already. We are entering a new Cold War, although there are many people who do not understand this. It is true that the alliances between China and Russia need to be very nuanced. While, on the one hand, Russian pressure on the West is obviously in China's global geopolitical interests, on the other hand, it is not in China's economic interests because the higher the price of energy, the more expensive it is to export Chinese goods.  

If there is any kind of tension, even in Taiwan, the Chinese economy would be completely squeezed by what we have called the Malacca Strait dilemma, i.e. 70% of Chinese trade, both energy and exports, goes through the Malacca Strait and it has no alternative at the moment. And that would be catastrophic for an economy that is currently cooling by leaps and bounds. For the first time in a long time, China may be starting to raise two very serious spectres. One is the demographic spectre of an extremely ageing population, and the other is that as the economy cools, banks are affected and unemployment figures are beginning to rise. For China this was not a problem until now.  

Why are the Algerian government and its highly influential military commanders determined to follow Russia's lead? 

I think it is a question of geo-strategic positioning, i.e. if their adversary is closer to the West, they feel they have to be closer to the others. However, there is a very clear contradiction because Algeria has excellent relations with many European countries and also has relations with the United States, so I think it is more a question of rhetoric than reality, and I don't think it would be in anyone's interest for the situation to get out of hand here. Let us imagine, moreover, that there were military tension between neighbours. As much as Russian instability might be in Russia's interest, I don't think it would be in Russia's interest for such a scenario to occur.  

Perhaps this whole situation could be one of the arguments that influenced Pedro Sánchez's decision to change the Spanish government's position on the Moroccan proposal for broad autonomy for the Sahara and to try to close this conflict in the midst of this situation of high tension. 

I think we have mentioned many times in this programme who are the allies of the one and who are the allies of the other. That is clear. Morocco is in a strong alliance with the United States, the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Italy and Spain. Obviously, the others have other allies, such as Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, above all. Moreover, it also coincides with Russia's allies. In any case, I also agree that we are facing a very fluid situation and I believe that things are not set in stone for any of the actors. I think there will be an evolution of geopolitical positions in Algeria, Tunisia or Egypt because they are happening all the time. Realpolitik has to prevail and the need for peace, stability and cooperation in the region has to prevail over the dynamics of tension. When the political situation stabilises, I believe that at that point this shift will take place. 

Yes, because the internal situation in Algeria is calm at the moment. The Hirak is calm, but in the economic situation there are many protests from various sectors. Instability could arise again in Algeria in the face of the crisis it is going through.  

There is a stagnation of the country's collective wealth, it is obvious. At the moment, for example, Morocco, which is not a producer of energy commodities, has the same per capita income as Algeria. Therefore, I think we are seeing how the monoculture is being overcome for many of the economy. Algeria necessarily has to diversify its economy because it also has a lot of talent and potential, and it is perfectly capable. Algeria has car production factories and has a young and highly literate population - more so than the Moroccan population, by the way. Therefore, the economic change that will necessarily come with the change of political mentality is underway and will only bring benefits. 

Political stability will necessarily bring more international investment. That will improve prosperity and hopefully when the war in Ukraine is over, the world economy will pick up and that will clearly also favour growth in the countries that need it most. Economic stability in North Africa is fundamental for Spain and for all countries.  

To the extent that prosperity and stability reign in Morocco, in Algeria, in Tunisia, in Libya - we are not going to mention it because it is currently impossible - in Egypt, this will clearly only benefit our interests in the short, medium and long term. 

And that the Algerian government takes the hand that the King of Morocco, Mohammed VI, has extended on many occasions to recover relations and understanding with the neighbouring country so that we can have the stability we are talking about.  

I believe that it would also be very important for the United States to take an important step to try to achieve détente between the two countries.