Competition for international order and Europe's absence from the strategic chessboard

Efforts to gain control of as much space as possible have accelerated in recent times. Projects and initiatives such as the recent AUKUS show the importance of taking action in an increasingly complex context. While China, Russia and the United States - hand in hand with the British and Australians - are vying for control of the international order, Europe remains on the sidelines in the race to the background, highlighting the shortcomings that the Old Continent has not yet corrected.

If a war has not yet broken out between the great powers, it is because there are several factors that are holding back a confrontation whose outbreak could cease to be a figment of the imagination. Colonel José Luis Calvo Albero, Director of the Security and Defence Studies and Coordination Division (SEGENPOL), does not think so. The economic interconnection that exists between many of the world's most important countries prevents violence from being unleashed, believes Calvo Albero. The colonel expressed his views at the event coordinated by the president of the Ideas and Debate Association, Miguel Ángel Benedicto under the title "The World to Come: Reordering the New International Order and Global Technological Geopolitics".

Nuclear weapons is the other fundamental aspect that José Luis Calvo Albero believes prevents the unleashing of a war, given that it would provoke a conflict in which "there are no winners or losers, only victims". The colonel, together with Javier Fernández Arribas, director of the magazine Atalayar, were in charge of presenting the conference organised by the Complutense University of Madrid (UCM). Fernández Arribas also highlighted some of the keys that could mark the future of the geopolitical chessboard, giving rise to the first part of the conference, "The new transatlantic relationship after the arrival of Biden".

José María Peredo, Professor of Communication and International Politics, and David García Cantalapiedra, Professor of International Relations at the UCM, were in charge of shedding some light on this complex issue. Peredo highlighted the key objective of the Biden administration, which is to halt China's advance with initiatives such as AUKUS and "Build Back Better World". They want a convergence of existing theories, to reorganise the international order through a new bloc from which Europe, as a result of its inactivity, is moving further and further away. This was also Cantalapiedra's view, who asserted that "Europe has not been in the game of the International Order where China, Russia and the United States are arguing for a long time".

If there is one thing that seems to be clear, it is that we are not on the threshold of a process or a competition, we are already in it, it has already begun, and Europe, as usual, is late. The Americans are moving closer and closer to Asia because they know how important Asia is - and will become - on the international stage. This movement should be followed by the European Union which, says the Complutense University professor, "either we (Europe) align ourselves or the great powers will take care of aligning us". The Indo-Pacific is one of the keys to the future, and the Europeans do not have a strategy there.

The Indo-Pacific is not the only key region ignored by the Old Continent. David García Cantalapiedra explained that "Africa is vital for Europe and even more so for Spain, and we are just waiting to see what happens". The current trend does not invite European optimism. Meanwhile, the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia are making moves in response to French discontent and Chinese and Russian concern, who see a strong player in important positions. This was precisely the subject of another stage of the meeting organised by the Complutense University, moderated by Esteban Hernández, opinion editor of El Confidencial, entitled "China's role in the New World Order".

Gracia Abad, RRIUI professor at the Antonio de Nebrija University, and Georgina Higueras, director of Foro Asia, explained how China is managing to move in this context. The second largest economic power in the world - the first according to the International Monetary Fund - knows the importance of having other actors to support you and serve as a basis for turning your objectives into realities, such as changing the international order, as they consider that the current one is not favourable to them. And for this, the existence or not of the Chinese Communist Party, Higueras said, is not essential, as it is a goal that goes beyond, it comes from China's elites.

This goal, which could be said to be intrinsic to China, is close to being realised thanks to the efforts that Beijing has been making for years, despite the fact that "many deny China's rise because they want to prevent its return to the top of the international order", said Yao Fei, Minister-Counsellor of the Chinese Embassy in Spain. Juan Luis Manfredi, Prince of Asturias Chair, was another of the main speakers at the conference, and agreed that efforts should be focused on the Pacific region, since the future of international relations will largely depend on it.

"We are in the Pacific century," Manfredi stated emphatically. Europe must move and seek its place on the chessboard, otherwise its relevance will continue to fade as it has been doing in recent times. The role Europe plays and the way in which it aligns itself - whether willingly or not, as Professor Cantalapiedra explained - will be important for the future of a project such as the Union, which is increasingly raising doubts and whose raison d'être is more questionable than ever.