The complicated negotiations to restart the Iran nuclear deal now have a date

On 3 November, Iranian diplomat and deputy in the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Ali Bagheri Kani, posted on his Twitter account that negotiations on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) would resume on 29 November in Vienna. However, hopes of salvaging the nuclear deal are dwindling. 

On the one hand, the Israeli official's announcement was accompanied by warnings from Israeli President Ebrahim Raisi, who stressed that his government would not allow 'excessive' demands from Western countries. "We will not leave the negotiating table", he said, "but we will oppose excessive demands that harm the interests of the Iranian people", according to La Vanguardia newspaper, which reported the president's statements at one of the events commemorating the 42nd anniversary of the occupation of the US embassy in Tehran. 

In the face of this, the position of Western countries must now consider the continuous violations of the clauses included in the agreement. Clauses that Iran has systematically violated since the US unilaterally abandoned the treaty in 2018. Some of the measures established by the JCPOA in 2015 were the limitation of enriched uranium reserves to 300 kg enriched to a low level or the restriction of nuclear research. 

In addition, the country's nuclear power plants were not allowed to enrich uranium above 3.67%, and it was determined that IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) nuclear inspection teams would have regular access to all nuclear facilities on Iranian territory. In return, the economic sanctions to which Iran was subjected by the Security Council, the US and the EU would be lifted for the duration of the agreement. 

Thus, while Bagheri Kani announced the reactivation of negotiations on the agreement, the Europa Press agency published data showing that Iran has doubled its reserves of uranium enriched to 20 per cent in just one month. Whereas in October of this year the country had 120 kg, it now has more than 210 kg. The same applies to 60% enriched uranium, which now amounts to 25 kg, and the mere stockpiling of which is already in breach of the nuclear agreement. The level of enrichment required to manufacture nuclear weapons is 90%. 

On top of all this, the IAEA is facing increasing complications in monitoring and controlling the country's nuclear activity. According to a report issued by Rafael Grossi, the organisation's director general, on 12 September, this "lack of access (to facilities) is seriously compromising the technical capacity to maintain situational awareness". 

Iran's development of nuclear energy has, for decades, generated enormous concern among its Arab neighbours and Western countries. However, Iran has always maintained that it does not seek to develop any nuclear weapons, and that all energy generated is for civilian use. 

Nevertheless, these assumptions have been questioned by the international community. Concerns that have only been heightened by statements such as that made by Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran, who recently stated that the country "has produced 25 kg of 60 per cent enriched uranium", something that until now only "nuclear weapons states" had achieved. 

For their part, several Western analysts believe that Iran's behaviour could be part of a strategy to strengthen its negotiating position, and that the management of the growing volume of enriched uranium would be nothing more than a bargaining chip to be used in reaching a deal. 

The American giant's stance on the JCPOA is the other axis on which the viability of the agreement hinges. Since the unilateral decision by former US President Donald Trump in 2018 to leave the pact, the authority of the other members - France, Germany, Russia, China, the United Kingdom and the European Union - has been called into question. 

The US exit was justified by the then president after the rest of the signatories refused to renegotiate the clauses. The Trump administration demanded an end to the point that allowed Iran to restart its nuclear programme, as well as limiting the ballistic programme and stopping Tehran's interference in the region. In the face of the refusal, Donald Trump announced that since leaving the pact, he would apply the highest level of economic sanctions on Iran. Sanctions that Bagheri Kani has described as 'unfair' and 'inhumane'. 

However, the arrival in office of Joe Biden at the beginning of 2021 seems to make an agreement possible again. While the president does not approve of Iran's demands - which include lifting all US sanctions on the country - he has stated that as long as Iran 'respects' the agreed measures, the US would be willing to negotiate its return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.