Could the war in Ukraine affect the Iranian nuclear negotiations?
There is no doubt that, in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, both the world order and the status quo of nations will undergo changes. At the same time that the US administration was warning of a possible Russian invasion of Ukrainian territory, delegations were negotiating the possible reactivation of the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal. Both the US and Iranian delegations announced earlier this week that the formalisation of the agreement is close, but the Russian invasion could jeopardise the diplomatic talks that have been going on since the end of last year in Vienna and will resume next week.
According to Bloomberg, as world powers learned of the biggest security crisis in Europe since World War II, two very distinct groups emerged. Despite this, the recovery of the Iranian deal is imperative, over the past weekend, Tehran government officials warned "about Iran's need for a quick decision on reviving the 2015 agreement, which eased sanctions in exchange for curtailing its nuclear activities". However, the negotiations are at a "critical stage", and "talk of a nuclear deal with Iran is premature speculation", a US official said because there are still a number of "difficult issues" unresolved.
"There are certain moments when a deal is possible, and sometimes if these moments are allowed to slip away, the deal starts to drift away, often for reasons beyond the control of the negotiators," Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney told Iranian Foreign Minister and Defence Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian at the Munich Security Conference. "The deterioration in relations between Russia, Iran's most important ally in the talks, and the United States threatens to jeopardise the outcome." "What has been real progress in recent weeks in Vienna has become more difficult to conclude," he added.
Experts believe that the war may be a pretext for Iranian leaders to reconsider the need to make concessions, as Russia and China have joined a security agreement, and their commitment to shift the country's economy eastwards. In addition, Tehran must decide whether to withdraw from the demand for assurances that the deal will not be blocked again, as happened four years ago with former president Donald Trump's exit from the agreement. In this regard, the US delegation has stated that it cannot commit that no nation will be able to opt out in the future if the agreement is formalised.
On the other hand, both Russia and the US have said they have worked together in the Iranian nuclear talks, avoiding differences at the negotiating table. In fact, Russian negotiator Mikhail Ulyanov has on many occasions posted photos of his meetings with his US counterpart Rob Mali on social media, showing their good relationship. "The Russians have good reason to make sure that the US pressure campaign policy towards Iran does not work." Throughout, diplomats from both nations have been able to protect the talks as hostility increased.
Commenting on the Russian-Ukrainian war, Bloomberg tweeted that Hossein Amir Abdollahian and Iran may be on a "diplomatic tightrope" on nuclear deals. Iran has blamed the US and NATO for the current crisis in Ukraine. "Unfortunately, the provocative actions of NATO, supported by the US, have complicated the situation in the region," said Said Khatibzade, spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry, before Russia began its attacks.
A day before the invasion of Ukraine, Western diplomatic sources told the Al-Sharq news agency that nuclear negotiations would resume next week until "an agreement is reached or the negotiations collapse". "The aim is to exchange ideas and discuss how to move forward at the final stage," Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's representative to international organisations in Vienna, said on Twitter.