Dbeibé stokes fears of renewed internal conflict in Libya

Dbeibé's move not to step down as prime minister puts parliament and Libya in general on the ropes. Since coming to power last year, the leader has devoted almost all his efforts to building a peaceful self-image.  

Parliament recently elected Fathi Bashagha as his successor until new elections are held. This decision did not go down well with the former head of government and he is prepared to lead his country into a new confrontation if he does not relinquish his powers. 

On Monday, Dbeibé reiterated that the path adopted by parliament threatens to divide the country again and inevitably lead to conflict.  In addition, he presented a roadmap that calls for parliamentary elections to be held next June. 

In recent months, the leader tried to dispel the idea of a change of government by putting pressure on the Council of State. As a result, Khaled al-Mashri, president of the Council, was forced to issue a communiqué calling on the Libyan parliament to coordinate the political process more closely. 

Several experts believe that some members of this institution had intimidated al-Mashri after a meeting with Dbeibé. Despite this, the president stressed that Bashagha's appointment is "a sensible and legal step". His support for this process of change underlines the clear position of the Council of State. 

During the sixth edition of the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries (FPEG) in Qatar, Dbeibé again raised fears of a possible proxy war. He also highlighted the important role that the outbreak of armed conflict plays with regard to the decline of oil and gas production in Libya. 

The balance of power is tilted in favour of the president elected by parliament. Some observers argue that the threat of war "is nothing more than a bargaining chip in the hands of Dbeibé, who dares not fight a battle he knows he will lose". 

Despite having the support of the army in the east and west, Bashagha is a clear advocate of the peaceful method. Both leaders have intensified their internal travel to meet with their colleagues and present their different points of view. During the celebrations commemorating the Libyan revolution, the politicians met in the city of Misurata without any clashes developing between their supporters.

The election of the new prime minister has taken on international overtones as countries such as Russia and Egypt professed their support for the formation of a new government. Turkey and the US, among others, have remained neutral throughout the process. This impartiality is a reflection of the state of confusion and isolation that Dbeibé is experiencing. 

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's president, has not come out in favour of either side, despite his initial rejection of the formation of a parallel government. Dbeibé's political sympathisers saw him as supporting parliament in its decision to set up a new cabinet. 

Bashagha's challenge now lies in trying to convince the UN and the international community of the legitimacy of his government. The Libyan leader's meeting with Stephanie Williams, UN Special Adviser to Libya, is seen as an important achievement towards this goal. 

Williams spoke of the need to make consensual progress in the transition of power. The unity government considered these statements to be biased. The US embassy in Libya said the UN approach is in line with "the basic principles of Security Council resolutions and international meetings on Libya". 

The Libyan institutional vacuum is already worrying senior officials in other countries, including the Moroccan foreign minister. Nasser Bourita pointed out that "the holding of elections is the appropriate framework to solve the problem of legitimacy" and that they should be a key point to strengthen stability in the country..