Donald Trump and the loss of international influence in the face of Russian aggression in Poland and the Israeli attack on Qatar

Donald Trump, President of the United States, promised to quickly end the main international conflicts currently underway, both the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza, thanks to his alleged influence over Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, and Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, but reality is showing that these are issues that may be slipping out of his hands.

Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, after four years of Democrat Joe Biden's administration, for a second term in which he promised once again to make America great again, especially on the international stage, thus restoring the United States' position as the world's leading political and military power.

The Republican leader claimed he could soon end the major armed conflicts currently raging around the world, particularly the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, to demonstrate that US leadership over the world is still intact.

It was well known that Donald Trump had a great relationship with Vladimir Putin, demonstrated during the first stage of the Republican leader's government, between 2017 and 2021, and also with Benjamin Netanyahu, thanks to the good historical relations between the United States and Israel, its main partner in the Middle East, and also thanks to the ideological harmony between the two, both leaning towards the right or conservatism.

However, the current situation shows that both Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu are ignoring the calls of American negotiators and peacemakers, and the wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue, with recent actions demonstrating that both the Russian and Israeli leaders are perhaps pursuing independent strategies.

Thus, there have been two recent episodes that have increased tension in both matters. On the one hand, the incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace as part of the attacks on Ukraine and the Israeli attack in Qatar against Hamas leaders who were in Qatari territory to continue peace talks aimed at achieving a truce in Gaza.

Russia sent drones into Polish airspace as part of its offensive against Ukraine, which began in February 2022 to seize Ukrainian territories claimed by Vladimir Putin. This was denounced by the Polish authorities as ‘an unprecedented violation’ of their airspace, to which the Polish Army responded with F-16 and F-35 fighter jets. The Polish government immediately invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), which states that member countries will consult with each other when, in the opinion of any of them, their territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened. This article allows member countries to request formal consultations with the Atlantic Alliance to analyse a threatening situation and agree on how to proceed, although it does not automatically imply a military response, as is the case with Article 5, which provides for an armed response if there is a direct attack on a NATO member state.

Meanwhile, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) also carried out bombings against Qatari territory, targeting Hamas leaders as part of Israel's war against the Palestinian extremist group in response to the terrible attacks of 7 October 2023 on Israeli territory that left more than 1,200 dead and 250 people kidnapped. This action also constituted an attack on Qatar, which was condemned throughout the Arab world, as Qatar is an important mediator in the indirect talks between Israel and Hamas to reach a truce that would end the war in Gaza. 

Israel stated that this was an independent offensive by the Israeli state. ‘Israel initiated it, Israel directed it, and Israel takes full responsibility,’ said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on social media.

Both situations may highlight Donald Trump's loss of influence over the two leaders, Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu, opening up a scenario of multipolarity in international power that would go against the thesis that the United States remains the world's leading beacon. In this vein, several major countries on the international stage, such as China, Russia and India, declare that there is a multipolar world in which the requirements of each party must be met.