Economy, migration and security: the focus of cooperation between Mexico, the United States and Canada

López Obrador has placed large doses of optimism in Biden. After the electric shock that the Trump Administration brought to the troubled relations between the United States and the countries of Latin America, the Democrat's arrival in the Oval Office has generated, almost by contrast, certain expectations among regional leaders to promote integration on a continental scale. 

Specifically, in the President of Mexico, one of the leading exponents of the Latin American left, whose country is hosting this week the tenth North American Leaders' Summit, popularly known as the Three Amigos summit, which will lay the foundations for cooperation in the coming months between Mexico, the United States and Canada. 

"This is the time for us to put an end to this abandonment, this disdain and this neglect of Latin America and the Caribbean", said a complaining López Obrador in his bilateral meeting with Biden, to whom he entrusted the challenge of strengthening ties between Washington and the rest of the American capitals. "You hold the key", he concluded, addressing the US president, who landed on Sunday in Mexico for the first time since he took office, specifically at the Felipe Angeles International Airport, recently built on the outskirts of Mexico City as one of the major projects of his six-year term, an infrastructure that has not been exempt from criticism from the opposition. 

The three-way meeting between López Obrador, Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the third in discord to arrive in Mexico, had a preamble during dinner on Monday at the National Palace, the seat of the executive branch, located in the megalopolis of Mexico City.

Beforehand, the Mexican and US presidents held a conversation that began aboard the beast, the black armoured Cadillac that transports the White House occupant. They agreed on many points, but there are still rough edges to iron out. Trudeau's position will also be important. 

In 2005, the Texan city of Waco hosted the first North American Leaders' Summit. After a five-year hiatus forced by Trump, and almost two decades after that first meeting, the heads of government of Mexico, the United States and Canada are resuming this week the agenda of their last meeting in Washington. Held in November 2021, the last summit focused on ending the COVID-19 pandemic, fostering competitiveness and coordinating a regional response to systemic migration and security issues. 

"A broader North American economic vision that includes strong labour standards, better environmental standards, and as much positive economic activity as possible". That is what Biden is seeking in his visit to Mexico, in the words of his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan. 

Trade ties between the three countries were solidified in 1994 with the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Renegotiations on the content of the pact began in 2017, including updates on industry, labour and anti-corruption.

The treaty reform has a sunset clause that terminates the agreement after 16 years unless each side expresses an interest in continuing, as well as a joint review every six years after implementation. It is in the interest of the parties to continue. Since its entry into force, the region accounts for one-third of global GDP, and its combined GDP has doubled in less than a decade. "Regional integration has turned North America into an economic powerhouse," stresses the joint report published by the Council of the Americas and the US-Mexico Foundation. 

But the trade alliance is far from perfect. There are more than a dozen disputes between the parties. The United States has filed nine against Mexico and two against Canada. Canada, in turn, has filed three complaints against the United States and one against Mexico, according to data from the Council of the Americas and the US-Mexico Foundation. 

The latest controversy is related to López Obrador's protectionist energy policies that favour Mexico's state-owned electricity company, the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), and the state-owned oil company PEMEX. The United States and Canada have filed a formal complaint that these policies violate the Free Trade Agreement, initiating a process that could lead to sanctions against Mexico. 

Migration levels are breaking records. US Customs and Border Protection has recorded an unprecedented volume of "border encounters", a term referring to apprehensions and removals, throughout 2022. "Without question, these migrant encounters, representing a 37% increase over fiscal year 2021, have overwhelmed processing capabilities, federal infrastructure, and border communities," writes analyst Ariel G. Ruiz Soto at the Migration Policy Institute.

The challenge is enormous, but there seems to be some commitment at the regional level. At the Summit of the Americas a few months ago, a score of continental countries committed themselves to addressing the root of the migration problem, as was signed in the Los Angeles Declaration. López Obrador missed the meeting in protest at Biden's decision not to invite the leaders of three authoritarian regimes on the continent, Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. 

However, the two countries have worked closely together on this issue. In fact, talks on this issue are ongoing between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard. 

Mexico has not requested financial support from the US to contain the bulk of migrants. AMLO believes that doing so would undermine the government's own decision-making capacity, although there are many internal voices calling for him to take a step forward in this regard. 

Biden, who visited the border wall a day before landing in Mexico, has been heavily criticised for his new security measures, which give the authorities the ability to expel migrants without allowing them to apply for asylum. The reform package also includes an agreement with Mexico under which the latter accepts the hot return of tens of thousands of Cubans, Nicaraguans, Venezuelans and Haitians who cross the border into the United States without authorisation.

"Despite measures to curb emigration, the enormous demand for North American labour is undeniable," says the joint report by the Council of the Americas and the US-Mexico Foundation. "The Canadian economy is estimated to lose $9.6 billion in 2021 due to a shortage of skilled labour in the manufacturing sector. In the same year, in the United States, more than 47 million workers quit their jobs during what is known as the Great Quit, contributing to a gap of 11 million job openings, but only 6 million unemployed. Meanwhile, 2 out of 3 Mexican employers reported difficulties finding talent in 2022". 

US-Mexico security cooperation was built on the controversial Merida Initiative. Launched under George W. Bush and Felipe Calderón, the programme transferred more than $3 billion from US coffers to Mexico's southern neighbour's accounts to combat drug trafficking and organised crime. 

The continuity of the security partnership was put at risk with the arrest of Salvador Cienfuegos in 2020. The former Defence Minister during Enrique Peña Nieto's turbulent six-year term was detained by the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) for an alleged drug trafficking offence after landing in Los Angeles without prior notification to Mexican authorities, a fact that infuriated López Obrador. In retaliation, the Mexican Congress passed a law restricting the operations of foreign security forces in Mexico. Washington eventually returned him to Mexico.

With the return to normality, Biden wants to address the challenge of drug trafficking, especially fentanyl, a synthetic opioid 50 times stronger than heroin and 100 times stronger than morphine whose use is causing a full-blown epidemic in the United States. The DEA estimates that it seized enough fentanyl for 379 million potentially lethal doses in the last year alone. The Drug Enforcement Administration has identified the Mexican Sinaloa and Jalisco cartels as the main players responsible for the production of fentanyl flowing into the northern neighbour. 

Mexican security forces have arrested several prominent leaders of transnational criminal organisations, most recently Ovidio Guzmán, known as El Ratón, one of Joaquín El Chapo Guzmán's sons, linked to fentanyl trafficking. He will not be extradited to the United States for the time being.

Coordinator America: José Antonio Sierra