Egypt seeks a regional ally in Somalia

A high-ranking Egyptian delegation headed by the deputy foreign minister, Sherif Issa, recently visited Mogadishu to forge closer ties with Somalia, in a context in which Cairo is boosting its relations with the rest of the African countries. 

The visit took place at a complicated time for Somalia in view of the approaching parliamentary and legislative elections in a country characterised by instability. 

At the meeting held with the Somali foreign minister, Mohamed Abdirizak, they discussed the regional situation and the challenges to stability and security in the Horn of Africa, and bilateral relations between the two countries. In addition, on 7 December the Egyptian delegation took part in the opening of the Somali Partnership Forum. 

Egypt and Somalia have historically enjoyed good diplomatic relations even before the independence of the latter in 1960. But it is true that in the 90s the Somali civil war triggered a major instability that caused relations to stagnate owing to events such as the attack on several embassies, including that of Egypt, which led to the transfer of the diplomatic legation to Kenya to guarantee its security. "Relations have fluctuated since then," Rokha Hassan, a member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Relations, told Al-Monitor.  

The visit took place in the midst of the tensions unleashed by the expulsion of the Egyptian educational missions in Somalia in May this year. Egypt was accused of collaborating with Puntland, an independent state of Somalia, although without any international recognition, without coordinating with the federal government. 

Egypt argued that contact with the Puntland authorities was simply for the purpose of commercial exchange and no other issues were addressed. And it stressed that Cairo supports Somalia's unity, its stability, development and the reconstruction of the country.

Somalia has been a failed state since the fall of dictator Siad Barre in 1991 and the outbreak of civil war, which also gave rise to the birth of internationally unrecognised states, Puntland and Somaliland. The country has since experienced constant confrontation, and the Somali government is ineffective in practically no part of the territory, which is essentially controlled by warlords. 

Mogadishu, in retaliation for Egypt's negotiation with Puntland, did not support Cairo in its draft resolution submitted to the Arab League, which condemned any unilateral action Ethiopia might take on the issue of the Great Dam of the Ethiopian Renaissance. This is a matter of great concern to Egypt and Sudan as it could limit the flow of the Nile to their countries. 

Since Al-Sisi came to power in 2014, Egypt has been seeking to improve its image in Africa in order to protect its interests and strengthen its position on the issue of the Great Dam, an issue of great concern in Cairo. 

The tension triggered by the issue of the Great Dam has placed Somalia in a complicated position so as not to upset any of the parties involved. Mogadishu attempted to offer itself as a mediator, though Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt did not take the proposal too seriously. However, Egypt is now seeking Somalia's support from Ethiopia. 

Another point that arouses misgivings in Cairo is Turkey's growing presence in the country. In fact, three days before the Egyptian delegation's visit, the Somali foreign minister met the Turkish ambassador whom he thanked for his support in the form of military assistance, development aid and help in managing the health crisis of the COVID-19. Ankara even established a military base in Mogadishu in 2017. 

Mukthar Ghobashy, deputy director of the Arab Centre for Political Studies, when asked by the Al-Monitor media, pointed out that at the meeting held between the Egyptian and Somali delegations, Egypt was able to consider the option of establishing an Egyptian military base in the Somali capital. This would help Somalia combat the Jihadists of Al-Shabab and al-Qaeda, and would also create a balance between the presence of Ankara and Cairo.

Omar Mahmoud, an expert on Somalia of the International Crisis Group, also reflected for Al-Monitor that "framing Somali relations in a context of broader rivalry is a destructive strategy. Somalia should not be a scenario of competition between opponents".