Election Day: The future of Europe is at stake at the French polls

Macron and LePen face off for the French presidency at the polls. This Sunday's elections pit the same people against each other as five years ago, but in a very different scenario. The current president of the French government and leader of the La Republiqué en Marche! party, Emmanuel Macron emerges as the favourite in most polls with 56.5% support. However, this does not necessarily mean a guaranteed success in the election results.

The National Rally candidate, Marine LePen has more voter support compared to what she gained in 2017. The far-right leader is closer than she has ever been to the Elysée after the first round of elections, held on 10 April, saw her obtain the best election result in her history. "I am the candidate of the France that works and whose life is not made easy by the government," she declared at a rally a week before the elections. 

The change in his discourse over the last month, now characterised by a more moderate approach, could be one of the keys to explaining his electoral reinforcement. In it, he has left aside migration and social issues to focus on economic discourse, something with which he is trying to hit Macron. And if there is one thing that has characterised both Macron's and LePen's electoral campaigns, it is that they have asked for votes against their rivals rather than for themselves.

What is clear is that the two-party system in France is now history. The extreme right of LePen's party and its increasingly evident rise has made this clear. In France, the results of the first round showed that Rassemblement Nationale's supporters came from the young, particularly those in the 25-34 age bracket. Another candidate who gained the most support from the young population was the leftist candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who managed to win over voters under the age of 25. 

Macron, on the other hand, derived support from voters between the ages of 50 and 65. What might this data reflect? Firstly, popular discontent, but above all among the youngest voters, who have been increasingly alienated from the neoliberalism of the current president. The extremes have apparently won over the French youth, a sector of the population that seems to be increasingly distancing itself from Macron and his policies.

Despite this, the centrist leader continues to win the polls, and here he may have been helped by the new situation in Europe after Russia decided to invade Ukraine under the pretext of "denazifying" the country. Over the past five years, the current president has demonstrated his desire to make France a country to look to when it comes to foreign policy, and the current crisis has succeeded in doing so. 

In this sense, the war has also played an important role, dominating the electoral debate, something in which Macron has a great advantage. In crisis situations there tends to be a closing of ranks behind the current leader, but this situation may be further strengthened by the fact that the president has maintained an important international agenda, centred above all on defence, security and diplomacy. Alongside this, the fight against terrorism remains high on the French agenda, even after the withdrawal of French troops from the Sahel and the end of Operation Barkhane.

Another key point is the constant dialogue he maintains with Washington, as well as his efforts to elevate France's international role as a reference country. In terms of European policy, Macron has demonstrated his ambitions to fight climate change, defend the energy transition and, in short, his commitment to common goods, with health, education and new technologies being priorities in his policies. 

Furthermore, on the European Union, Macron has defended a humanist and Europeanist vision, a far cry from LePen's proposals. During his term in office, the French leader has reiterated the need to renew international cooperation, which would be "a long and difficult fight". However, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has accelerated what seemed to be a complicated process, leading the EU-27 to agree on greater defence investment, in addition to providing international support to Ukraine both economically and militarily.

Macron has turned to the European Union from the moment he won the last elections. The president has tried to reach out to Europe with a humane and hopeful speech in which he stressed that "courage" should not wane. In contrast to LePen, the French leader pointed out that the far-right party is "pan-Islamic, anti-European, anti-European".

Undoubtedly, his defence of these sectors could be key to achieving what would be a second victory. However, the centrist leader maintains a smaller lead over his main rival, something that poses a threat and represents a social polarisation, regardless of whether he manages to win on this new day.

For the moment the polls in France will remain open throughout the day and it will not be until tonight that we will know who will hold the Elysée for another five years. In the event of an electoral twist and in the event that LePen manages to win, which for the moment is not likely to happen, it would be the first time that a woman would be at the helm of the French presidency.