Elections in Uganda: Tensions, protests and arrests

With 18 million registered voters, the presidential elections in Uganda are being held on January 14 amidst social tension between supporters of President Museveni and the opposition, led by the musician and politician Bobi Wine. The third candidate out of the 11 who are standing is Patrick Amuriat, a former member of parliament of the Forum for Democratic Change party of former leader Kizza Besigye, who until these elections was the leader of the opposition.  

President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, aged 76, has been in power since 1986 after a five-year armed struggle against the government of Milton Obote and General Idi Amin Dada. Museveni began his career with state policies after the conflict with Obote's and Amin's militias until it was liberalised in the 1990s, when he joined the programmes of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Ugandan economy grew in the 1990s and early 2000s to 7%, receiving foreign direct investment in the banking and telecommunications sectors. Since the mid-2000s, the Ugandan Parliament has been changing laws to allow Museveni to continue running for election. Examples of such legislative changes have been the two amendments to the Ugandan Constitution which established a limit of two five-year terms and a presidential election age limit of 75.  

Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, better known as Bobi Wine (38), entered politics after becoming famous as a reggae musician in 2017, when he ran for Parliament as an independent. He later joined the National Unity Platform party which he would lead and with which he has run in these elections. During the election campaign, Wine has focused on the issue of corruption, youth unemployment and investment in public services. Patrick Amuriat has been a member of parliament from 2001 to 2016 for the party of former opposition leader Besigye, replacing him as head of the political formation in 2017.  

In the latest 2016 election, the opposition accused the government of manipulating the results. In the months of campaigning for this election, the situation has worsened, with arrests and police brutality against opposition supporters. Bobi Wine has been arrested repeatedly and his campaigning activities have been prevented by the police under the pretext of anti-coronavirus measures. A week ago, he had to evacuate his children to the USA because he had received kidnapping threats. The candidate's campaign team has been arrested on two occasions: first, his entire team was arrested on New Year's Eve and then on January 7 his replacement team was arrested. On the other hand, Patrick Amuriat has also been arrested several times, including on the day he was nominated by his party. The Ugandan Electoral Commission has also been criticised for banning campaign events just where, according to local sources, the opposition was leading in the polls. Bobi Wine has decided to file a complaint against President Museveni at the International Criminal Court for being harassed by the State Security Forces and Corps, having arrested him, as well as the candidate Amuriat, for parking in a prohibited place or for reckless driving. In the case of Wine, a policeman sitting in the back of his car allegedly fired tear gas canisters at him. Facebook has had to close a number of accounts of members of the Ugandan government for trying to manipulate public debate ahead of Thursday's elections.  

According to Dennis Ssebugwawo, a Ugandan accountant and co-founder of the international non-governmental organization The Campaign for Universal Human Responsibilities: "Most Ugandans no longer believe in elections, but they do participate in all elections. Every time an election is held, there is a struggle between people who oppose the government and the security forces, many lose their lives and others are seriously injured, some are kidnapped, property is lost. (...) The environment in which the candidates have campaigned has been abnormal, characterized by constant partial arrests, killings, limitations due to the pandemic, disturbances of both the opposition and the government in power, the conduct of the security forces leads one to believe that this is not what one would call an environment in which a fair election can take place". Even so, in this election, unlike the previous ones, the opposition is hopeful of winning since it has the support of the younger electorate, the average age in Uganda being 17.  

Regional bodies such as the East African Community or IGAD have sent observation missions for the elections. The European Union, which did send observers to last year's elections, has decided not to send any this year, citing the Ugandan government's failure to comply with recommendations on transparency in the polls. For its part, the United Nations Human Rights Office has issued a statement expressing its concern at the arrests, deaths and police brutality that have taken place over the last two months. On November 18 and 19, 55 people lost their lives in demonstrations against the arrests of opposition leaders Wine and Amuriat. It is feared that, regardless of the outcome, instability will continue in the coming months.