Enrique Mora, Deputy Secretary General of the EU's External Action Service: "Putin is going to declare the annexation of the Donbas as soon as he gets the territory"
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed everything. First of all, it has brought the Ukrainian people down to hell. Then, it has overturned the European security architecture in place since the end of the Cold War and left the rules-based international order in tatters. It has also unleashed a crisis at all levels that looms large in Africa and the Middle East, the most vulnerable regions. Along the way, however, Putin's war has managed to politically bolster a European Union at a low ebb, turning it into a well-oiled machine to act forcefully, almost in unison.
In order to analyse the implications of the invasion of Ukraine in the European space, the summer courses of the Complutense University of Madrid (UCM) have hosted this Wednesday at its headquarters in San Lorenzo del Escorial the start of a conference organised by the Spanish Federal Council of the European Movement, chaired by the professor of International Relations of the University, Francisco Aldecoa, who was in charge of inaugurating the course in the company of the Secretary of State for the European Union, Pascual Ignacio Navarro Ríos.
The star guest of the day was the Deputy Secretary General for Political Affairs and Director of the European External Action Service (SAEA), Enrique Mora, the right-hand man of the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, and a veteran diplomat. A physicist by training, but a politician by profession, the Spaniard is a key figure in the EU's external organisation, involved in countless disputes and negotiations. This time, Mora has unpacked the role of the EU-27 in the aftermath of the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
The SAAS deputy secretary general started with an anecdote: "I was in Vienna in January, during the negotiations to resume the nuclear deal with Iran, when Borrell called me and told me to go to Moscow because we were flying blind. The origin of the problem, if you remember, is that Russia put three conditions on NATO, two of which were non-negotiable. When you put a condition and you know it's going to be rejected, you have to have a plan B, but they didn't have one". Mora later recounts how his interlocutors in the Russian foreign ministry told him why Moscow decided to heat up the atmosphere: "Why now? Because we are stronger than ever and you are weaker than ever".
"This was a preparation for invading Ukraine five weeks later. In principle, the offensive was going to be a surprise, but US intelligence was extremely precise. They didn't fool anyone like they did in Iraq, it just happened". In this period, Brussels was preparing the first round of sanctions. By the time they struck, the draft of the first restrictions was ready. "We have to appreciate the speed of the sanctions, imposed in three days, with resources that had never been used before and unanimously by all partners", the diplomat pointed out.
Mora made a plea for maintaining economic and military aid to Ukraine: "If Russia stops tomorrow, the war stops. If Ukraine stops tomorrow, it disappears. The intention of the sanctions here is to weaken Russia. Not like in Venezuela, where the aim is to change behaviour. No, the aim here is to weaken Moscow". "When Putin says "they are declaring war on us" he is right, we are," he concluded. The debate, however, is now focused on whether sanctions are effective or not. Whatever the answer, Mora is clear that Putin is not going to stop his campaign of aggression.
The EU is united on this issue, at least for the time being. The Western bloc has been strengthened, as demonstrated at the NATO summit in Madrid. The alignment between Washington and Brussels is evident. The West is united, yes, but it is alone. The so-called Global South has sent a different message, one that is geared towards the chrematistic. The SAAS deputy secretary general is aware of the crises facing this area, the new Non-Aligned: "The first to fall was Sri Lanka [with the outbreak of protests following the economic collapse that led to the resignation of the president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa], we estimate that there may be 12 to 18 countries following the same path". Even so, they have to be convinced.
"What has happened in Ukraine calls into question the European project based on peace, prosperity and partnership," Mora warned. The security architecture is shattered, the social market economy and free trade, which the Germans relied on to tame Russia's ambitions, called into question, and bilateral relations diluted by the total loss of trust. Although the diplomat acknowledges that the EU is keeping open avenues of dialogue with the Kremlin because "it would be a mistake not to do so". These talks are subject to strong security measures to prevent leaks.
"We have to prepare for a European Defence Union," Mora stressed. "If Trump or someone like him is president of the United States after 2024, 70 per cent of what was agreed in Madrid at the NATO summit will not work". The EU-27 have outsourced security to Washington, the founder and leader of the organisation. Borrell's number two is committed to developing strategic autonomy in this sense, which was initially only defined in terms of Defence, but today encompasses more areas.
"Putin proposed a modern war, in the style of the United States", added the assistant secretary general of the Foreign Action Service. "One of the details has been the incompetence of the Russian military. It bordered on the ridiculous, it wasn't capable of doing it, but Putin is not going to stop. If we continue with this model of war, the conflict will be prolonged", predicted Mora, who also maintained that Russia will declare the annexation of the Donbas as soon as it gets the territory: "In that scenario, the response must be brutal and immediate".