Erdoğan supports Ukraine's "sovereignty and territorial integrity"

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was the latest international leader to parade through Kiev in the midst of escalating tensions in Ukraine. After the visits of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Polish and Dutch Prime Ministers Mateusz Morawiecki and Mark Rutte, Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelenski received his Turkish counterpart at the Mariyinsky Palace on Thursday, who hopes to act as a moderator in a conflict where Turkey has several open fronts.

"We would never want a war between Russia and Ukraine. I hope we can resolve this peacefully," Erdoğan declared before taking the flight to Kiev. The move comes after Ankara's unsuccessful attempt to bring the Russians and Ukrainians to the negotiating table. A first attempt at mediation was rejected by both administrations, which start from 'a priori' irreconcilable positions.

Erdoğan's visit to Kiev had other motivations. On the table was the proposal to increase bilateral cooperation with Ukraine, launched in 2020. The Turkish president had planned to sign 10 new agreements in the areas of education and industry, raising their trade volume to 10 billion dollars. A goal that has been achieved and on which both leaders have proposed to move forward.

But all the focus was on the Ukrainian issue. And Erdoğan was adamant: "We continue to support the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine, including Crimea". The Turkish president insisted on his initial position at the end of the meeting, during the joint press conference with Zelenski, stressing that Turkey is ready to do its part to "put an end to the crisis between the two friendly neighbours on the Black Sea".

Ankara has made it clear that it wants to play a leading role and pre-empt the conflict before it can blow up in its face. Erdoğan has therefore sent Putin a new mediation proposal, although it is unlikely that a Kremlin that maintains the White House as its main interlocutor will accept. Moscow's priority is to bring Washington to the table, as only Washington can meet and implement its demands within NATO.

The United States is also keen to reduce the number of interlocutors with Russia and minimise divisions in the Western bloc. But Turkey is the organisation's second largest partner, and its weight within the Atlantic alliance legitimises its action in representing it, despite the mistrust of other members. Turkey's communications director, Fahrettin Altun, told Bloomberg: "We are a member of NATO and one of the most active in the decision-making mechanisms".

The Turkish president's visit to Ukraine was of vital importance. This is reflected in the conversation between White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Erdoğan's senior adviser Ibrahim Kalin on Tuesday, where they defined the joint strategy. In this regard, Erdoğan himself warned that there should be "no doubt" about his commitment to NATO.

Zelenski thanked Erdoğan for "the initiative to act as a mediator" at the press conference afterwards. The leaders gave a positive assessment of the meeting and emphasised their cooperative ties. However, some voices in Ukraine have questioned the interests of Turkey, whose geostrategic ties with Russia force it to adopt an ambiguous position in the conflict despite military support.

Despite rivalries in Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh and Crimea, where Turkey backs the Tatar community, Putin and Erdoğan maintain a mutual dependence, described by the European Council on Foreign Relations' senior researcher Asli Aydıntaşbaş as "competitive cooperation". The TurkStream pipeline carries gas from Russia to Turkey via the Black Sea, a route that in turn weakens Ukraine's role.

Military cooperation between the two is also key. Turkey's purchase of the Russian S-400 anti-missile system, whose procurement procedures are still souring relations between Ankara and Washington despite Erdoğan's rapprochement with the Biden administration, also plays a role. As does a possible cancellation of flights carrying Russian tourists to Turkey. A trump card Moscow is counting on to aggravate the Turkish economic crisis.

But Ankara is not resigned to losing manoeuvrability. The sale of Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones to the Ukrainian army as part of Turkey's effort to find new markets for its arms industry stands out in this regard. Moscow criticised the decision, arguing that the drones could be used to attack Russian-backed troops in the Donbass. In fact, one of these fighter jets destroyed a howitzer used by Donbass separatists in October.

To assuage Moscow's displeasure, Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar reiterated his commitment to respect the Montreux Convention, a treaty signed in 1936 that grants Turkey the right to regulate the transit of warships and other vessels through the Dardanelles and Bosporus if they pose a threat to stability. A key step for Russia's security, this agreement strictly restricts access by NATO forces.

The precedents of 2008, when Ankara refused to allow US warships into the Black Sea during Russia's invasion of Georgia; and 2014, when Erdoğan refused to join the West in imposing sanctions on Moscow following Russia's annexation of Crimea, serve as a compass for predicting Turkey's next moves regarding the current crisis.

The factor that could tip the balance is Crimea. Turkey supports the Tatars who populate the peninsula, united by historical ties, and for Erdoğan this is a decisive issue: "I attach particular importance to the situation of our kin, in particular the Crimean Tatars, who are an essential part of our relations with Ukraine. This issue, as has always been the case, will be at the top of our agenda during our talks in Kiev".