Europe tries to mediate in the Middle East to avoid regional escalation
Amid fears of an imminent attack by the Islamic Republic of Iran against Israel in retaliation for the assassination in Tehran of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, several European countries have called for restraint in order to avoid an escalation of violence in the Middle East.
France, Germany and the UK have issued a joint statement on the regional landscape urging the Iranian regime and its allies to "refrain from attacks that could further aggravate regional tensions and jeopardise the opportunity to agree a ceasefire and secure the release of the Israeli hostages held in Gaza".
The Iranian authorities and their allies "will be held accountable for actions that jeopardise this opportunity for peace and stability", the European nations said in the note.
Meanwhile, Paris, Berlin and London also highlighted the "tireless work" of Qatar, Egypt and the US to achieve a ceasefire agreement and the release of the hostages, backing the joint statement by Qatari Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, Egyptian President Abdulfatah al-Sisi and US President Joe Biden calling for the immediate continuation of negotiations.
However, Hamas has already announced that it will not participate in a round of negotiations on the hostage agreement and ceasefire in Gaza that was scheduled for Thursday.
The terrorist group argued its refusal on the basis of new conditions recently presented by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the assassination of Haniyeh, and recent Israeli air strikes in Gaza.
Hamas accuses Israel of killing more than 90 people in an attack on a school this past weekend. The Israeli army has denied the figures, calling them "exaggerated" and claiming that they "do not match the information available to the IDF".
On the contrary, the IDF has claimed to have used "the exact ammunition" in a "precision strike" against a command room that members of Hamas and other terrorist groups set up in the school. According to Israeli military authorities, at least 30 terrorist operatives, including "senior commanders", were at the site when it was attacked.
Hamas's refusal to participate in this round of negotiations is seen as "a tactical move in the face of a possible attack by Iran and Hezbollah and in an attempt to get better terms for the deal", as a senior Israeli official tells Axios.
"Preparation and vigilance are not synonymous with fear and panic"
Regarding this possible attack, which US and Israeli intelligence already describes as "imminent", Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant recently announced that Israel has been reinforcing its defences in recent days, in addition to preparing for possible strikes in response or pre-emptive action if necessary.
During a meeting of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee, Gallant indicated that the threats from Tehran and Beirut "may materialise", but he wanted to clarify that "preparation and vigilance are not synonymous with fear and panic".
Israeli intelligence services expect Hezbollah to strike first and then the Islamic Republic of Iran to join in with a direct attack as it did for the first time in history last April.
However, there is disagreement within the Iranian regime over the intensity of this attack. While the newly appointed president, Masoud Pezeshkian, wants to avoid a full-scale war against Israel at all costs, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps wants to launch a larger attack than in April.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will have the final say on the timing and targets of the attack, although he is likely to choose to avoid a major confrontation so as not to jeopardise the survival of the Iranian regime.
The Islamic Republic could launch missiles and drones against Israeli military targets and symbols - such as the Knesset or the Prime Minister's residence - while Hizbollah could attack large urban centres such as Tel Aviv or Haifa.
The Tehran-backed Lebanese Shiite militia has been firing shells at communities in northern Israel since 8 October, prompting the evacuation of thousands of people.
In the midst of this delicate situation, and in order to protect Israel and its troops in the region, the United States has been moving fighter jets and warships to the Middle East for days. In the last few hours, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has also ordered the deployment of a nuclear-powered guided missile submarine, the USS Georgia, to the region.