Fears grow of Transnistria becoming Putin's next target

While Ukraine continues to resist the Russian offensive for almost 70 consecutive days, the advance of the Kremlin's army and recent developments in the region have also put the pro-Russian Moldovan territory of Transnistria in the spotlight. In recent days, the small self-proclaimed republic - bordering Ukraine - has suffered three so far unclaimed terrorist attacks that have raised alarm among Moldovan citizens and authorities. 

Theories about the responsibility for the explosions - against the headquarters of the Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol, as well as against some telecommunications antennas and near an arms depot - have pointed in all directions, and have been directed against all parties involved in the conflict. According to Transnistrian President Vadim Kranoselski, the traces of the culprits lead back to Ukraine, although this is a theory that many international analysts have dismissed for lack of evidence. 

"It is clear that this was a provocation by the Transnistrian secret services, which are subordinate to the Russian FSB," said Moldovan political analyst Victor Ciobanu to Efe news agency. Although Transnistria does not, as such, represent a threat to Ukraine's positions in the conflict, it does represent "a strong destabilising factor for the entire region: for Romania, Moldova and Ukraine", as the head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, declared in an interview for NV. 

"After all, this is a territory that Russia controls completely, but has no access to, as it borders Moldova and Ukraine," said Kyrylo Budanov. "And no matter what they say in that region, they can't achieve anything serious there. The units based in Transnistria are all they have, which is about 1,300. These are all the official Russian troops in the whole region," he added. 

Moreover, Russian General Rustam Minekheyev's statements, made less than a fortnight ago, have done nothing to allay suspicions. "Controlling southern Ukraine is also a way to reach Transnistria", he said, unwittingly fuelling fears that these attacks are nothing more than false flag attacks that will end up justifying the entry of more Russian troops into the region. Despite not being internationally recognised, the pro-Russian republic of Moldova is home to more than 1,300 troops of the Kremlin's army. In addition, there are about 20,000 tons of weapons in the Cobasna depot, one of the most important arms warehouses in Eastern Europe. 

The Transnistrian territory is strategically very important for the seizure of Odessa in southern Ukraine. The entry of Russian troops across the border into the small republic would make attacking the coveted port so easy that the British newspaper The Times has claimed that Putin has already decided to attack Moldova. 

"We believe the Kremlin has already made up its mind to attack Moldova. The fate of Moldova is very crucial. If the Russians start to take control, militarily we will be an easier target and the threat to Ukraine will be existential," a Ukrainian military officer told the newspaper, setting a possible date of 9 May for the offensive. "Victory Day" for Russian citizens celebrating the defeat of Nazi troops during World War II. 

It is now feared that, as happened with the Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts in the Donbas, Moscow will recognise the independence of the pro-Russian republic of Transnistria as a prelude to an extension of the conflict in a westerly direction. In this scenario, citizens in the region have already begun trying to leave the territory by crossing the river in their vehicles, and third countries such as Latvia have urged their nationals to avoid travelling to the region, and to leave if they are already there.  

Apart from military strategy, the Kremlin's control of the Transnistrian republic would mean curbing the pro-European tendency of Moldovan President Maia Sandu. A threat that Putin has already tried to put an end to in Ukraine, with an invasion that is now almost 70 days old, and in Sweden and Finland with the warning of suffering the same fate as its southern neighbour.  

"We cannot assume that Russia will not attack other countries," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said at a press conference with Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and her Finnish counterpart Sanna Marin on NATO membership. 

Meanwhile, the offensive in Ukraine continues. Although the defending Ukrainian forces have managed to halt the Russian advance in the Kherson administrative region - an advance towards Mykolaiv - the Kremlin's troops have announced their intention to continue the siege of Azovstal, the Mariupol steel mill that has been the embodiment of Ukrainian resistance in recent days. 

Although the evacuation operation coordinated by the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has managed to rescue hundreds of civilians who had been trapped in the city for months, "the operation must continue," said ICRC members. Inside Azovstal alone, more than 200 civilians are still trapped. "We have accompanied 127 people to Zaporiyia, some 230 kilometres northwest of Mariupol, where they are receiving care, including medical and psychological care," said UN representative in Ukraine Osnat Lubrani. "But we had hoped that more people could join in. Similar arrangements between the parties are urgently needed to alleviate the immense suffering of the civilian population," the ICRC stressed. 

However, the Azov Regiment reported today that Russian troops have begun the final assault on the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol. "All night long we were bombed from the air, two civilians, women, were killed, and now the assault on 'Azovstal' is underway," Svyatoslav Palamar ("Kalina") was quoted as saying by the Efe news agency in the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper.

"Tomorrow (Wednesday) we also expect traffic through the humanitarian corridors of Berdyansk, Tokmak, Vasylivka" in the direction of Zaporiyia, Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky said during his daily address.