France strengthens its influence in the Middle East in the face of European decline
Paris seeks to regain diplomatic weight in a key region as the international perception grows that Europe has lost relevance compared to other power blocs
- French tour of the Middle East and international context
- The debate on European decline in 2025-2026
- Lessons from Africa and loss of influence in the Sahel
- Regional challenges and first messages in Syria
- Lebanon: limits of French influence
- Economy, Gulf and strategic projection
- European security, diplomatic presence and objectives
French tour of the Middle East and international context
French Foreign Minister Jean Noel-Barrot is on a tour of the Middle East with the aim of strengthening France's role and underlining its international leadership. All this in a context in which its influence has declined in traditional areas – Africa – and in which the European Union is perceived globally as a less decisive player.
That is why France's presence seeks to project strategic autonomy, strengthen Europe's voice and prevent other players from occupying areas of influence that Paris still considers strategic.
The debate on European decline in 2025-2026
The issue of European decline has been the subject of recent debate. As was the case at the 2025 Munich Security Conference, where Charles Michel, President of the European Council, pointed out that Europe must regain control and be stronger in terms of security and defence. ‘Our power is based on our influence in the world,’ he clarified.
For his part, Emmanuel Macron, during the French Ambassadors' Conference in January 2026, warned: ‘There is a risk of weakening international cooperation mechanisms. Europe risks being wiped off the geopolitical map if it does not strengthen its internal cohesion and its capacity for action in the face of powers that impose rules by force.’
More recently, at the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos, Macron insisted: 'The European Union must use all the instruments at its disposal to protect its strategic interests and respond to external coercion. Europe cannot lag behind in a world where the major players define the rules.' These statements show that French diplomacy in the Middle East is part of a broader effort to project its own influence, even when the EU as a whole is perceived as weakened.
Lessons from Africa and loss of influence in the Sahel
The regional context reinforces the urgency of this strategy. France has lost ground in Africa, especially in the Sahel, where the withdrawal of military forces and the deterioration of relations with former allies left a strategic and symbolic vacuum.
According to Jean-Yves Le Drian, former French foreign minister: ‘The withdrawal from the Sahel taught us that absence in strategic regions quickly translates into a loss of voice and influence. We cannot repeat that in the Middle East.’ The African experience serves as a warning to France not to lose its presence in a region as complex as the Levant and the Gulf.
Regional challenges and first messages in Syria
The Middle East today faces multiple challenges: the war in Gaza, institutional fragility in Lebanon, the protracted Syrian conflict and nuclear tensions with Iran limit the capacity for action of traditional actors. Without military power comparable to that of the United States or direct influence like Iran or Saudi Arabia, France is committed to an active diplomatic profile based on mediation, multilateralism and the promotion of negotiated political solutions.
One of the first steps taken by Barrot on his tour of the Middle East was to reaffirm his country's support for the Syrian people in building their future, following talks with his Syrian counterpart, Asaad Al-Shaibani. He stressed the importance of the agreement reached between the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). ‘We discussed the mechanisms for implementing the comprehensive agreement between the Syrian government and the SDF, which is making significant progress,’ Barrot said.
Lebanon: limits of French influence
The case of Lebanon illustrates the limits of French influence. According to Hanna Youssef, an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations: ‘France remains involved in political and economic stabilisation efforts, but its ability to influence internal balances is now limited and overshadowed by the influence of regional actors.’ This shows that, although Paris maintains a presence, its room for manoeuvre is narrower than in previous decades.
Without the military power of the United States or the direct influence of Iran or Saudi Arabia, France prefers a very active diplomatic profile. Its approach has always been one of mediation, multilateralism and seeking negotiated political solutions. The case of Lebanon shows us the limits of what France can do there.
Economy, Gulf and strategic projection
France combines its diplomatic strategy with economic and strategic initiatives. Relations with Gulf countries, for example, are strengthened not only for commercial and energy reasons, but also as a way of projecting global influence. These relations allow France to remain connected to key decision-making centres, even without being the dominant player.
French policy in the Middle East is also linked to European security. On Iran, Emmanuel Macron stated: ‘Iran has direct responsibility for regional destabilisation. This affects not only the Middle East, but also European security.’ This link between regional politics and European security underlines the logic of strategic interest that guides the French tour.
European security, diplomatic presence and objectives
The Vice-President of the European Commission, Margaritis Schinas, reinforced the same idea: ‘Europe must strengthen its diplomatic presence in the Middle East. The region requires a coherent European commitment to ensure that our voice is heard in the peace and security processes.’ These statements show that France is also acting to compensate for the EU's limited visibility and capacity for action in critical international scenarios.
In this context, the French strategy pursues three connected objectives: to project its own autonomy in a world where the EU is perceived as weakened; to strengthen the European voice in multilateral processes; and to apply the lessons learned from Africa, where Paris's absence created power vacuums that were quickly filled by other international or regional actors.
France seeks to demonstrate that, even without leading blocs, it can articulate its own diplomatic initiatives and contribute to preventing the narrative of European decline from taking hold, projecting its presence in a scenario where politics, security and the economy are closely intertwined.