Gaza ceasefire deal is closer than ever
- Hamas to hand over 33 hostages
- Progress, but no final agreement
- Possible obstacles
- Blinken's plan, key points
More than 15 months into the Gaza-Israel conflict, the prospect of a truce deal is more likely than ever after mediators handed Israel and Hamas a final draft of an agreement to end the war.
The signing of the agreement in Doha, Qatar, by both sides would mark the end of intermittent negotiations that have taken place since Hamas militias attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, killing more than 1,200 people and kidnapping more than 250 others.
Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari has provided an update on the ongoing Gaza ceasefire negotiations. ‘I can confirm that talks are taking place at the highest level here in Doha as we speak right now,’ Al-Ansari told a news conference in Doha. However, Al-Ansari cautioned against raising expectations too high until there is a formal ceasefire announcement, although major obstacles hindering the talks have been overcome.
‘We believe we are at a developed stage, we believe we are at a final stage, but obviously until there is an announcement, there will be no announcement,’ he said. ‘We shouldn't be too excited. But we are certainly hopeful,’ he said.
Hamas to hand over 33 hostages
Following remarks by US President Joe Biden on 13 January, negotiations are close to agreement as meetings intensify to free the hostages and mediate with Israel to stop the fighting and significantly increase humanitarian assistance inside the Strip.
According to an official, Hamas has reportedly agreed to the release of 33 of the 94 hostages, including children, women, men over 50, the wounded and the sick. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that negotiations are now ‘in Hamas’ court’ and that ‘they are very hopeful that a final agreement will eventually be reached’.
The Israeli government believes that most of the 33 hostages to be released in the first phase of the deal are alive, but, according to a senior Israeli official, ‘it is likely that among those released there will also be dead bodies of captives,’ he added.
The first phase would take place during an initial 42-day ceasefire. In return, Israel would be prepared to hand over more than 1,000 Palestinians held in Israel over the next 60 days. The next phase envisages a withdrawal of Israeli troops, although they would remain on the border perimeter.
If an agreement can be reached, the ceasefire would culminate more than a year of intermittent meetings. The success of such an agreement, of which both sides have a draft, would allow for the largest release of hostages since the early days of the conflict, when pro-Iranian Hamas militias freed half of the prisoners.
Progress, but no final agreement
According to Israeli radio, Kan, the text was handed over by Qatar to both sides, which included members of the Mossad, Shin Bet, the head of Egypt's intelligence agency, Hassan Mahmoud Bashad, and Qatari Prime Minister Mohamed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani. These mediators have tried to end the war on more than one occasion.
The official confirmed the presence of Steve Witkoff, who will become the US envoy when Donald Trump takes office in the White House next week, and who also attended the talks.
Israel's foreign minister, Gideon Saar, noted that the negotiations are on track for the first time and thanked the US mediators for the enormous efforts they are making.
Despite the favourable statements, one of the officials briefed on Hamas' progress said that 'a number of contentious issues remain to be resolved, including Israel's commitment to end the war, the details of the withdrawal of Israeli forces, the exchange of prisoners and the return of the more than 94 hostages still held by Hamas’.
Possible obstacles
Several informants have confirmed that both the US and Arab mediators have made significant progress, but ‘there are many obstacles to overcome’.
Lack of trust on both sides is the main problem. While Hamas does not believe that Israel will withdraw its troops from the Gaza and Lebanese territories, the Israelis do not trust the Hamas militias to release the hostages alive, as about a third of the hostages (some 34) still held in Gaza are believed to be dead.
According to the Gaza Ministry of Health, 46,565 Palestinians have lost their lives, more than 109,000 have been injured, and more than 1.2 million have been displaced since the conflict began on 7 October 2023.
Although, according to these reports, all that is missing is the approval of the leaders of both sides, both Netanyahu on the one hand and Hamas on the other have pledged to maintain the armed struggle until they achieve what both have called ‘complete victory’.
So far, the only one to speak out has been Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, who confirmed that ‘the situation seems to be the best since the beginning of the conflict’.
On the other hand, Israel's far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has described the proposal as ‘terrible’ and called on Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to join him in opposing the negotiations. He called the pursuit of a ceasefire a ‘surrender’ and ‘a catastrophe for the national security of the State of Israel’.
Blinken's plan, key points
In parallel to Joe Biden's speech, Antony Blinken proposed a forward-looking plan for conflict resolution to the Atlantic Council.
Key points of Blinken's plan include reform of the Palestinian Authority so that it is part of any future government in Gaza; the involvement of Arab countries in the post-war process in the Palestinian enclave, which will also include the participation of the Palestinian Authority; and opposition to an Israeli occupation of the territories of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
Within the White House, however, not everyone agrees with Blinken's projected plan. According to Reuters, senior US officials reportedly told the Secretary of State that such measures would serve the agenda of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and sideline the Palestinian Authority and its president Mahmoud Abbas.
Jack Lew, the US ambassador to Israel, said that ‘there is broad support from the Netanyahu government for a deal’ and that ‘Israel has the capacity to move it forward’. At the same time, members of the Israel Hostages and Missing Families Forum sent an official letter to the Israeli authorities to refrain from any statements that could endanger the lives of those held in Gaza by Hamas.
Although it is Joe Biden's administration that is pushing the truce agreement, the big change, according to official reports, is the arrival in power of Donald Trump on 20 January. Donald Trump's statements that if the hostages are not released, ‘all hell will break loose’ have resonated with the mediators.
Blinken confirmed that the negotiators ‘wanted to make sure that Trump continued to support the deal on the table’, making the attendance at the ceasefire talks of Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, along with Biden's envoy Brett McGurk, ‘crucial’.