Germany and pro-Russian influence

There is nothing strange about the sympathies that many German citizens may feel between Berlin and Moscow, capitals of countries with a common history that is still far too recent. A few decades ago there was still a part of the map showing the initials of the former GDR. However, the fact that sympathies for the Kremlin continue to be expressed in Germany after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and that several pro-Russian agents have been arrested for leaking data is already a serious danger for the current government of Olaf Scholz. 

"Russia's intelligence interest here in Germany has not only not been broken, but is increasing as the effects of the war continue," Thomas Haldenwang, head of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, said this week. "The current case also shows how real the danger of Russian espionage is," he added. 

The allusion is clear. On 22 November, the most important espionage case against Germany in recent decades was announced with the arrest in Berlin of an alleged double agent, identified as Carsten L., accused of the crime of high treason for supplying highly sensitive information from the Federal Intelligence Service (BND) to the Russian secret services. Carsten L. was only the tip of the iceberg.

A month earlier, the German government's cybersecurity chief, Arne Schönbohom, had been dismissed for "closeness" to Russian espionage circles. "Weeks ago I presented a cybersecurity plan and pointed out, especially in view of the threat of war from Russia, how vulnerable we are. These were the statements made by German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser when she dismissed Schönbohom from her post. 

These cases, according to Haldenwang, could be motivated by the reaction to the expulsion of members of the Russian embassy in Berlin, considered persona non grata by Germany. This was done by several European countries when the Russian invasion of Ukraine began in February last year. 

Several pro-Russian agents have been unmasked in recent years in Germany, but it is not only intelligence matters. The Kremlin has sought to undermine sympathies for the West within Europe's own heartland and support policies beneficial to Moscow from there. The most relevant example in these days of war is Nord Stream 2. The pipeline approved during the Merkel era is now producing dissent in the Bundestag as German policy seeks to reduce its heavy energy dependence on Russia. 

In this area, the Ministry of Economic Affairs is key to this policy shift and Moscow has been trying to influence it. Two officials in this administration were also investigated on suspicion of spying for Russia. Alarm bells were raised when they expressed 'sympathy for the Russian point of view' on energy policy issues.

In this respect, Russian influence is key. Germany is the EU's largest economy, and a policy shift towards rejecting aid to Ukraine would break the unity of the EU-27. 

If there is one thing Putin's inner circle is adept at, it is fomenting disinformation campaigns to help sway public opinion. In April a pro-Russian demonstration took to the streets of Berlin, while in September another took to the streets of Cologne. "We must stop being vassals of the Americans," said right-wing politician Markus Beisicht, waving to a crowd waving Russian and German flags, as reported by Reuters. 

Far from appearing to be a small group of people, Moscow is trying to influence Germans' decision to support Ukraine by highlighting the real importance of Germany's energy shortages, the rising cost of daily living and the money - more than a billion euros - spent on aid to Kiev. Fewer and fewer Germans are interested in expanding this situation in what is turning out to be a small triumph for Russia in its broad offensive against the West.