Global balances in the face of Beijing's entry into Latin America

For many years, China was Asia's sleeping giant. However, over the last few decades, China has awoken from its lethargy to gain strength on the international stage. Beijing's strategy seems to have shifted from political positioning in support of other powers to strengthening economic ties with other markets, which has allowed the country to carry out an unprecedented expansion of its trade alliances and partnerships.

So much so that the regions in which China has begun to pursue its investment and business policies range from the Middle East to Latin America, generating major shifts in the international balance of power and forcing other powers to redefine their positions in financial markets.

In light of all these changes, the Fundación para el Análisis y los Estudios Sociales (FAES) has launched an ambitious project entitled "China and Great Power Rivalry in Latin America: Repercussions for Spain", which will take place in six seminars - either in person or online, depending on the health situation - between 31 January and 14 March. The round of colloquiums opened yesterday with the conference 'The rise of China in LATAM: consequences for Spain, the EU and the USA', in which FAES Foundation was attended by Álvaro Uribe, former President of the Republic of Colombia. Together with him, Mira Milosevich, member of the Board of Trustees of the Foundation for Social Studies and Analysis, moderated the presentation. 

In his speech, the former Colombian President emphasised the change in China's tactics. Far from being the Maoist country of the 1940s that encouraged a "strong literature promoting the communist revolution", in Uribe's own words, the Asian giant has based all its growth on trade and investment. And, along these lines, Beijing has moved economically closer to a region that is increasingly interesting for its natural resources, its enormous population and the growth of its citizens' financial capacity.

The emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as problems related to vaccination and health supplies in Latin America, prompted the region to strengthen its ties with China. Especially after China responded to the needs of the territory, while the local population watched as North America and Europe left them behind in the race for collective immunisation.

However, for Álvaro Uribe - at least as far as Colombia is concerned - China's growing economic influence in Latin America should not be a political problem. "For the sake of objectivity, and as a defender of democracy and pluralism, I cannot say that China's entry into Colombia has given any sign of wanting to intervene or distort Colombian politics", said the former president, who repeatedly stressed that for Beijing "economic interests come before political interests", although this does not necessarily mean lowering its guard. 

While it is true that the Asian giant's investment in Colombia lags behind that of the United States and Spain, the import figures provided by Uribe shed a different light on the country's reality. In 2019, Beijing counted exports to the Latin American country worth 11 billion dollars, only 1 billion dollars behind the US. Furthermore, despite still being far below the investments made in other states in the territory, Chinese contributions of business and infrastructure capital in Bogotá have gradually increased in recent years.

As for the trade war between China and the US, although it is still led by Washington, it could lead to a rivalry that affects the economic and commercial partners of both powers. When asked about this hypothetical situation, Álvaro Uribe suggested three possibilities: "political and economic emulation" - a natural tendency of individuals and governments -, the creation of economic tensions, or the escalation of this into military mobilisation, although this scenario would be unlikely.

Finally, when addressing the question of Beijing's interference in the region's political conflicts, the former Colombian president stated that the relationship that should cause "most concern" - without being labelled "problematic" - is the one that the Asian country might have with the Venezuelan regime. Despite not doing anything different from other Western countries in terms of arms sales, the mention of possible military agreements between Caracas and Beijing by Nicolás Maduro should be a cause for concern, although so far China has not commented on the matter.

In global terms, the main objectives of the project "China and Great Power Rivalry in Latin America: Implications for Spain" will be to promote debate on Spain's geopolitical and commercial aims in Latin America, as well as to contribute to the analysis of Spain's foreign policy in the region, taking into account the relations between China and the other powers involved.

The round of seminars, which will be held weekly until mid-March, will include among its participants Nicolás Pascual de la Parte, Spanish Ambassador; journalists John Müller and Juan Pablo Cardenal; Román Ortiz, Vice President for Latin America and Head of Internal Security at Cordillera Applications Group in Washington; and Shiany Pérez-Cheng, associate researcher at Resilient Futures, London, specialising in Chinese sharp power. Also present will be Jorge Heine, professor of International Relations at Boston University; Pepe Jang, analyst and associate director of The Atlantic Council and Andrei Serbin Pont, director of the Coordinadora Regional de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales (CRIES) in Buenos Aires; among other experts.