Growing tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, joined by Egypt, threaten the Horn of Africa

Growing tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, accentuated by arms shipments, risk destabilising the fragile Horn of Africa and creating opportunities for Al Shabaab Islamist insurgents, experts say.

The region has been on high alert since January, when Ethiopia made the surprise announcement that it would lease a stretch of coastline in Somaliland, a breakaway area of Somalia, to build a naval base and commercial port.

Landlocked Ethiopia has long sought its own access to the sea, but the decision infuriated Somalia, which refuses to recognise Somaliland's claim to independence that it first declared in 1991.

Somalia has reacted by moving closer to Ethiopia's biggest regional rival, Egypt.

Egypt has its own conflicts with Ethiopia, in particular the massive Grand Renaissance Dam it has been building on the Nile, which Cairo sees as a threat to its water supply.

On 14 August, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud announced a ‘historic’ military agreement with Egypt.

Since then, Somalia has received two arms shipments, the most recent of which arrived in recent days.

Analysts say this raises concerns.

‘Somalia, a country already awash with weapons, is currently experiencing a surge in (arms) imports amid ongoing tensions. Given the widespread mistrust and weak controls, this is a worrying development,’ said Omar Mahmood of the International Crisis Group.

Ethiopia's foreign ministry said on Monday it was particularly concerned that the weapons would end up in the hands of Al-Shabaab militants.

Somalia has also threatened to expel Ethiopian troops deployed in an African Union mission against Al-Shabaab since 2007.

The mission will be restructured at the end of the year and Egypt has offered to replace the Ethiopian troops for the first time.

Somalia could also force Ethiopia to withdraw the approximately 10,000 troops it has stationed along their shared border to prevent Islamist incursions.

Samira Gaid, a Mogadishu-based security analyst, said such threats from Somalia were a ‘wild card’ designed to pressure Ethiopia not to become the first country to recognise Somaliland.

But the possible loss of experienced Ethiopian troops has already raised fears in southwestern Somalia, the area most affected by the Al Shabaab insurgency.

‘If Ethiopia and Somalia do not cooperate with each other, if there is a fundamental breakdown in their security relationship, Al-Shabaab is the winner... they can exploit the gaps,’ Mahmood said.

Attempts by foreign powers to lower the temperature have yielded few results.

Turkey has hosted two rounds of talks between Ethiopia and Somalia, in July and August.

But the third round scheduled for last week in Ankara did not take place.

‘It is difficult to see any progress because of this escalating rhetoric,’ Gaid said.

Analysts say an outright armed conflict remains unlikely, but obstacles are mounting.

Last weekend, Somalia accused Ethiopia of supplying arms to its northeastern region of Puntland, another breakaway province that unilaterally declared independence in 1998.

‘This activity constitutes a serious violation of Somalia's sovereignty and poses serious implications for national and regional security,’ Somalia's foreign ministry wrote on X-Day.