Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical analysis of 29 October 2025
- APEC in South Korea: energy transition, AI and power struggle
- Trump-Xi in South Korea: truce or structural hardening
- Gaza: the truce cracks
- Trump-Kim meeting in the DMZ? The value of the gesture
- Failure in Istanbul: Pakistan–Taliban break off dialogue
- Tanzania: ballot boxes without real competition
- New York: a close election
- North Korea ‘greets’ APEC with missiles
- Media rack (last 24 hours – curated sample)
- Analysis by region and media
- Global trends
- Final editorial note
APEC in South Korea: energy transition, AI and power struggle
Facts:
APEC enters its decisive phase in Gyeongju (South Korea) with the business summit (28–31 October) and the leaders' meeting (31 October–1 November). Donald Trump was received with state honours and a 21-gun salute, meeting with President Lee Jae-myung and announcing an imminent trade agreement. Xi Jinping will join shortly. The agenda focuses on three areas: energy transition, supply chain restructuring and artificial intelligence governance, against a backdrop of tariff wars and controls on critical minerals.
Implications:
If APEC manages to agree on a minimum framework for artificial intelligence and trade facilitation, it could alleviate regional investment paralysis. If not, the defensive relocation of value chains will persist. The summit is a turning point for rebalancing power in the Indo-Pacific: Trump's leadership seeks to counter Chinese expansion. The real litmus test will be the Trump-Xi meeting: without a trade truce, no final statement will suffice.
Trump-Xi in South Korea: truce or structural hardening
Facts:
The eagerly awaited bilateral meeting in Busan addresses five fronts: 1) control of fentanyl precursors, 2) partial tariff relief, 3) licensing regime for rare earths, 4) reciprocal port fees, and 5) the situation with TikTok and agricultural purchases.
Trump promises a ‘great outcome,’ with progress on rare earths and Russian oil. However, analysts anticipate a partial agreement—an extension of the ‘tariff pause’—without resolving structural decoupling, especially in technology and security (Taiwan).
Implications:
A partial pact linking anti-drug cooperation and tariff relief would give oxygen to markets and Midwestern agriculture, but would not reverse technological decoupling. If it fails, mirror measures will return; if it succeeds, the truce will last until 2026. It is a test of Trump's pragmatic realism versus Xi's strategic ambition.
Gaza: the truce cracks
Facts:
Israel launched attacks on Gaza City, Bureij and Khan Younis after accusing Hamas of violating the ceasefire. Washington maintains that the truce ‘remains in place,’ while recognising Israel's right to respond.
Vice President JD Vance, speaking from Jerusalem, described the agreement as ‘a critical piece in unlocking the Abraham Accords,’ assuring that the US will not deploy troops, except for 200 advisers and observers.
Implications:
The message is twofold: restraint towards Netanyahu and a warning to Hamas. The ‘Trumpian peace’ depends on bilateral discipline. If the exchange of remains and hostages accelerates, Arab normalisation could regain momentum. But internal Israeli volatility and humanitarian attrition threaten the stability of the truce.
Trump-Kim meeting in the DMZ? The value of the gesture
Facts:
Trump expressed his desire to meet with Kim Jong-un in the demilitarised zone (DMZ), but the White House dampened expectations, citing ‘timing issues’. The context is adverse: Pyongyang has strengthened ties with Russia and tested new cruise and hypersonic missiles, asserting its status as a nuclear power.
Implications:
A symbolic gesture could ease tensions and give diplomatic oxygen to APEC, but without a roadmap to denuclearisation, it would only be a tactical pause. The postponement reveals the limits of the personalist approach and the risk of over-rewarding Pyongyang.
Failure in Istanbul: Pakistan–Taliban break off dialogue
Facts:
After four days of talks mediated by Turkey and Qatar, the dialogue collapsed. Islamabad accuses Kabul of failing to contain Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP); the Taliban deny this. The Pakistani defence minister warned of a scenario of ‘open war’, while Kabul demanded formal guarantees from the US that never materialised.
Implications:
The breakdown maintains a high risk of cross-border incursions and military escalation. Turkey and Qatar will continue to mediate, but without guarantees on the TTP there will be no lasting stability. The collapse exposes the weakness of the Taliban regime and threatens the trade corridors connecting South Asia with the Middle East.
Tanzania: ballot boxes without real competition
Facts:
President Samia Suluhu Hassan (CCM) wins on a day of low turnout, following the exclusion and disqualification of opponents. Regional observers denounced a climate of fear and censorship.
Implications:
More coronation than contest. Reinforces the narrative of ‘stability first,’ but erodes legitimacy and complicates international financial cooperation.
New York: a close election
Facts:
The race for mayor enters its final phase. Polls show a narrowing gap: Mamdani (42%) maintains a lead over Cuomo (32%) and Sliwa (18%). The progressive candidate loses key support (UFT, AOC, Catsimatidis) while Cuomo capitalises on the vote for experience and management. Eric Adams and Dov Hikind back him; Hochul and Jeffries close ranks with Mamdani.
Implications:
The duel is between militancy and institutionalism. A Mamdani victory would alter the political balance of the largest city in the US, while Cuomo grows in support among the older and more moderate electorate. The outcome is uncertain, and the political climate tense.
North Korea ‘greets’ APEC with missiles
Facts:
Pyongyang launched sea-to-land cruise missiles just before Trump's arrival in South Korea. Seoul confirmed the tests.
Implications:
The gesture increases pressure on Washington and reinforces US-South Korea-Japan coordination. It is a reminder that, beneath the diplomatic surface of APEC, the Korean peninsula remains a critical point of nuclear deterrence.
Media rack (last 24 hours – curated sample)
- APEC / Trump–Xi: Reuters (agenda: fentanyl, rare earths, TikTok, tariffs) · official APEC CEO Summit website (Gyeongju, 28–31 Oct)
- Gaza: Reuters (bombings and Israeli response) · The Guardian (JD Vance quotes)
- DMZ / Trump–Kim: Reuters, Washington Post (low expectations)
- Pakistan–Taliban: Reuters (failure in Istanbul; risk of war)
- Tanzania: AP, FT, Al Jazeera (restrictive process)
- NYC: CBS New York (Suffolk poll; senior vote)
- North Korean missiles: Reuters (confirmation of launches)
Analysis by region and media
Anglo-Saxon (NYT, WP, Guardian, WSJ, FT, BBC, CNN, Fox, Politico, The Hill, Economist)
Consensus: Trump's tour of Asia is seen as an opportunity to reduce tensions with China, although there is scepticism about lasting results. On Gaza, division: progressive media denounce ceasefire violations; conservatives support Washington's firm stance. In Tanzania, agreement: elections without real competition. In New York, growing attention to Cuomo as a moderate alternative.
European (Times, Telegraph, Le Monde, FAZ, Corriere, Die Zeit, Libération, Helsingin Sanomat)
They agree on concerns about global volatility and the impact of the Trump-Xi axis on Europe. Le Monde and FAZ warn of the risk of European economic isolation. Libération and Die Zeit criticise the Israeli response in Gaza. Telegraph and Die Welt support a firm Western line against Beijing and Pyongyang.
Russian and Asian (RT, TASS, SCMP, China Daily, Yomiuri Shimbun, Times of India, WION)
Russia celebrates its ‘advances’ in Ukraine; China presents the Trump–Xi meeting as a US concession. Japan and Singapore warn of tensions in Northeast Asia. India emphasises the risk of instability due to the Afghan-Pakistani collapse.
Latin America and the Middle East (Clarín, El Mercurio, Reforma, Al-Jazeera, Arab News, Asharq Al Awsat, Gulf News)
Focus: Gaza. Al-Jazeera and Palestinian media denounce Israeli aggression; Gulf media advocate mediation. Latin America observes Trump's trade policy for its effect on migration and raw materials.
Europe, Israel and the Vatican (Gazeta Wyborcza, Ukrinform, Yedioth Ahronoth, Haaretz, Jerusalem Post, L'Osservatore Romano)
Ukrainian media report Russian advances and demand Western support. In Israel, division: Yedioth supports the Vance line; Haaretz criticises the handling of the ceasefire. The Vatican insists on a humanitarian approach.
Global trends
- Accelerated diplomacy, uncertain results: APEC and Trump–Xi shape economic geopolitics.
- Gaza redefines the post-Abraham Accords narrative.
- Elective authoritarianism (Tanzania) consolidates the African pattern.
- Political polarisation in the West: New York as a microcosm.
- Militarised Asia: North Korea, the constant reminder.
Final editorial note
The global chessboard offers a precarious balance between dialogue and pressure. Trump attempts to combine commercial muscle with diplomatic gestures; Xi calibrates his response so as not to lose control of the narrative; and the Middle East experiences a truce suspended in mid-air. The international order remains fragmented, and multilateral forums—such as APEC—are no longer sufficient on their own: only real political will can translate summits into stability.