Haftar announces an imminent counterattack in Libya

"You are now on the verge of witnessing the biggest air campaign in Libyan history"; a lapidary sentence with which the Libyan National Army (LNA) sends out a warning to navigators. The words were pronounced by Saqr al-Kharoushi, the head of Khalifa Haftar Aviation, according to Bloomberg. The rebel marshal is thus preparing to recover the territory that the combatants of the Government of National Accord (GNA), mostly jihadist terrorists deployed in North Africa by Ankara, have stolen from their ranks.

Al-Jaroushi has warned that his planes will give no quarter: "All Turkish positions and interests in all cities are legitimate targets for our air force fighters; we call on civilians to stay away from them".

In April 2019, Marshal Haftar began a campaign with the aim of conquering the entire country. Until then, sovereignty had been shared with the administration of the GNA of Fayez Sarraj, based in Tripoli, under the Skhirat agreements. Over the last year, the LNA has gradually advanced from the east of the country and controls important coastal urban centres, such as Benghazi and Sirte. 

A couple of months ago, it seemed that the LNA was in a critical situation, under siege in the capital and with the independent city of Misrata - a town close to Sarraj - also under siege. However, the situation has ostensibly improved thanks, in large part, to the arrival of Syrian mercenaries facilitated by Turkey. The fronts in Tripoli and Misrata have remained stable. The LNA offensive has not only stopped, it has been reversed.

At the western end of the country, along the coast from Tripoli to the Tunisian border, an air-land offensive supported by Turkish drones has enabled Sarraj to extend his dominance significantly. Moreover, towards the interior of the country, southwest of the capital, his fighters have managed to take control of a very important logistical and strategic point: the Al-Wattiya airbase. The conquest of this airfield has allowed the GNA to launch constant bombardments on the remaining LNA positions in the area.

The Haftar side therefore needed a coup of grace that would allow it to regain the war initiative in the west of the country. It is possible that the attacks will focus on this sector, although it cannot be ruled out that the bombing of Tripoli will intensify. 

The campaign announced by its spokespersons is also designed with a second purpose. Recent military setbacks had sown doubt in some of the marshal's most important allies.  Among them are Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. So far, the two countries, members of the so-called Arab quartet that also includes Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, had backed Haftar because they saw him as a reliable option to stop the expansion of the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya - and, by extension, on the southern shore of the Mediterranean. 

However, these alliances are becoming less and less clear, as the Egyptian daily Mada Masr recently reported. The newspaper also points out that the Elysée Palace, which is also located next to the LNA, is beginning to lose sight of its commitment. Haftar is therefore probably trying to put on a show of force that can convince his partners that they should continue to support him.

Pending the intensification of the offensive, the truth is that the troops of the GNA are continuing to be reinforced at a good rhythm. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan has already provided training on its own territory to more than 11,000 mercenaries from the Syrian war. More than 8,000 have already been transferred to the North African conflict and the number is expected to continue to grow steadily.

Thus, nothing assures Haftar that an escalation in air attacks alone will generate optimal results, at least not immediately. Moreover, the fighting in the major urban centres can take the form of guerrilla warfare, so that if the LNA wants to conquer major cities, it may have to fight for every house.