Haftar blocks oil sector to help Fathi Bashagha take power in Libya

Oil is one of Libya's main arguments and source of wealth. The North African country has significant oil reserves and these have also been used as a tool of pressure during the Libyan civil war. 

Now, Marshal Khalifa Haftar, leader of the Libyan National Army and ally of the eastern government in Tobruk, has decided to halt the production and export of crude oil as a pressure measure in the country and as a manoeuvre to support Fathi Bashagha, appointed new prime minister by the Tobruk parliament to replace interim prime minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibé, who came to power with the mission of ruling the Libyan executive from the capital Tripoli to develop a democratic process aimed at holding general elections after eight years of civil war. 

This manoeuvre may make the West uncomfortable, as it seeks to boost world oil production to cope with the rise in fuel prices caused by the invasion of Ukraine and to avoid energy dependence on Russia. Libyan production, although limited (around 1.2 million barrels), may affect prices, and this is causing concern. 

Since the war began in Ukraine, the United States and the European Union have pressured the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to further increase the currently agreed global oil production, but the member nations of the organisation have not yielded to pressure, and countries such as Saudi Arabia and the Emirates want to separate OPEC and OPEC+ (which brings together the main exporting countries and partner nations such as Russia) from political issues, such as those arising from the Russian invasion of Ukrainian territory.

OPEC members pointed out that there is balance now, that the oil market is governed by the rules of supply and demand and that the current price volatility is only due to geopolitical tensions. In this regard, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has held firm in its latest decision to increase its production from May onwards by 432,000 barrels per day over the total figure previously set, as opposed to the 400,000 barrels it has been increasing recently.

Despite Dbeibé's coming to power, due to political incompatibilities between the opposing sides, the elections scheduled for December 2021 could not be held, and from Tobruk it was understood that the mandate of the leader of the Government of National Unity had ended and that the time had come to appoint a new prime minister, in this case, Fathi Bashagha, former Libyan Interior Minister.  

Libya's civil war broke out in 2014 after the overthrow and death of Muammar Qaddafi between sides fighting to succeed him. In recent years, the conflict has been fought between the Government of National Accord of former Prime Minister Fayez Sarraj, based in Tripoli and supported by the UN, Turkey and Italy, and the Libyan National Army, led by Marshal Haftar and supported by countries such as Russia, France and Egypt. 

The Libyan conflict became internationalised with the participation of nations interested in the geostrategic position of the North African country and its oil resources. Some of these participants even sent paid mercenaries to fight on the ground, as various media and analysts have pointed out, in this case Turkey sent militiamen from the Syrian war, and Russia sent members of the private military company Wagner.

Thanks to international mediation by the UN and countries such as Morocco and Egypt, talks were held between the warring parties that led to the appointment of Abdul Hamid Dbeibé as interim prime minister with a view to organising elections, which were never held. The Tobruk parliament took the initiative and appointed Fathi Bashagha on the understanding that Dbeibé's mandate had expired as the electoral process failed to materialise, and it was even said that Bashagha had arrived in Tripoli on Friday to take power, as reported by the Al-Arab media.

Following this move, numerous armed groups entered the Libyan capital on Saturday to support Dbeibé and confront Bashagha. The confrontation that has been going on for years is being replicated here because Bashagha is supported by the Tobruk bloc with Haftar at the helm and Dbeibé has strong ties with Turkey, as he has had many business dealings with the Eurasian country.

This movement in Tripoli by pro-Dbeibé groups followed the mobilisation led by commander Osama al-Juwaili, loyal to Fathi Bashagha, who announced his intention to seize power peacefully, as reported by DW news agency. 

According to information published by DW, the forces supporting Bashaga are made up of parts of the al-Nawasi Brigades, affiliated to Mustafa Kaddour and hitherto linked to Tripoli, as well as groups from al-Zawiya in the northwest and Warshafana.

The moves come at a time when the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) is sponsoring negotiations in Cairo between the High Council of State - which has shown its support for Dbeibé - and the Tobruk parliament to agree on a constitutional basis for conducting an electoral process, with no date set due to the new institutional division between the opposing parties.

Haftar's manoeuvre over Libya's oil sector could pit him against the West, which needs more oil production in the world to deal with the energy crisis resulting from the war in Ukraine, and could in this case favour the side represented by Dbeibé, who would have Western support. 

The total production capacity in Libya is 1.6 million barrels of oil per day, and now stands at 1.2 million barrels, and most of it comes from oil fields in the east and south of the country, precisely in the eastern part of the country controlled by Haftar's forces, who can play the oil card in favour of his interests and exert pressure with it. 

This decision to halt oil production comes along with the fear of an armed confrontation in Tripoli following the entry of armed groups in support of Dbeibé and the presence of forces loyal to Bashagha. This would be terrible because it would reignite the civil war that has been going on since 2014 and has turned Libya into a real failed state. 

The Bashagha-led government issued a statement on Sunday morning confirming its commitment to start its work from the capital, Tripoli, in accordance with the law and by peaceful means. However, tension is palpable due to the presence of armed vehicles in the Tripoli capital, as reported by media outlets such as Al-Arab and Al-Ain News.