Hamas, fifteen years after an election victory that it will try to repeat this year
Fifteen years ago today, the election victory of the Islamist movement Hamas ushered in one of the toughest periods in Gaza's history. The group will try to repeat the results in the upcoming elections, the first Palestinian elections since then.
When the results were announced on 26 January 2006 (74 out of 132 seats for Hamas), many were shocked and few imagined that, 15 years later, the situation in the enclave and in Palestinian politics would have deteriorated so much.
After Hamas's victory, a period of misunderstandings and rapprochement began between the Islamists and the hitherto all-powerful nationalist Fatah party, which had been led by Yasser Arafat and is now headed by Mahmoud Abbas.
After months of tension and the creation of a unity government, Hamas seized power by force in Gaza and expelled forces loyal to Fatah, leading to the dissolution of the joint executive.
Since then, Hamas has ruled in the coastal enclave and Fatah in the West Bank. Israel imposed a tight blockade on the strip which, coupled with three large-scale military clashes, including a 50-day blockade in 2014, has only compounded the damage that political division has caused to the population.
Waseem al-Banna, a 27-year-old resident of the enclave, says the situation has never been so bad for Gazan youth.
Hamas corruption, he says, has given jobs, salaries and privileges to unskilled people, while scores of people are unemployed or left for Turkey or Europe "in search of a better life or just to preserve their dignity".
Others, however, still support the Islamists, mainly because of their armed struggle against Israel.
"Since Hamas's (electoral) victory, the movement has maintained its national stance and its methods of armed resistance against the Israeli occupation," Sadi Abu Halawa, 37, also a resident, told Efe, stressing the religious element of the movement, which "aims to establish the law of Allah on earth".
"Hamas achieved victory (in 2006) after convincing its voters that the strategy of armed resistance is the only way to recover the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people", recalls Gazan political analyst Talal Oukal.
In these 15 years, he adds, they have made major mistakes, including "violent control of Gaza", and have failed in attempts at reconciliation with Fatah, which still rules in the West Bank.
This situation, however, could change in the coming months, with elections to be held in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem in the middle of this year.
If they are held, which at this stage and after several failed attempts is far from a guarantee, these would be the first elections since those in 2006 - when the legislature should have lasted only four years - and would be evidence of a real rapprochement between the two factions, which will meet in Cairo in the first week of February to agree on the details of the elections.
"These elections are very important for Hamas, which could renew its legitimacy in power", believes another political analyst in Gaza, Mustafa Ibrahim, who also points out that members of the Islamist movement - considered a terrorist group by the European Union, the US, Israel and other countries - are confident that an election victory would help stabilise the economic situation in the enclave.
However, Ibrahim has serious doubts, both about whether the elections will actually take place and about a hypothetical acceptance by Israel and Fatah of a new Hamas victory, which he wonders could trigger episodes similar to the clashes that took place in 2006 and 2007.