Herzog's visit to Ankara marks 'turning point' in Turkish-Israeli relations

Israeli President Isaac Herzog's historic visit to Turkey marked the beginning of a new phase in bilateral relations between Jerusalem and Ankara, a habitual source of misunderstandings and regional instability. But on an international stage shaken by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the cascade of geostrategic consequences has stirred up the hornet's nest, forcing the various international actors to redesign their respective alliance policies.

Lacking executive powers, the presidency of the State of Israel has a strong symbolic component and is subject at all times to the designs of the Knesset, the parliament. However, its role is important at the diplomatic level, a prerogative that he wanted to demonstrate with his trip to Eurasia. There he was received by his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who, unlike the Israeli, pulls the strings of national politics in an aggressive exercise of power that does not seem to wear him down.

Isaac Herzog on Wednesday became the first Israeli president to visit Turkey in 14 years. The last Jewish leader to do so was Labour's Shimon Peres, who used his trip to Ankara in 2007 to explain in parliament his willingness to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, becoming the first Israeli president to address the House of a Muslim country. Israel was then a close ally of Turkey.

"We are ready to achieve the goal of two states for two peoples, a Palestinian state for the Palestinians and a Jewish state for the Jews," Peres said at the time. However, three years after the Labour leader's statements, diplomatic bridges were shattered when nine Turkish activists aboard the Mavi Marmara were killed by Israeli naval commandos while trying to break the naval blockade of the Gaza Strip.

The thaw came in 2016, when Israel financially compensated the families of the dead and Turkey dropped all criminal charges against those involved. But this timid rapprochement broke down two years later with the Trump administration's recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of the Hebrew state and the relocation of its embassy to this historic city. A move that hardened Erdoğan's rhetoric against Israel.

That hostile scenario for the Islamist leader's regional aspirations was soon to change. First with Donald Trump's resounding electoral defeat and then with the pyrrhic formation of a government in Israel with the alliance of more than eight different formations, one of them Arab, to oust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from power 12 years after he became Prime Minister for the second time. A hard-line leader.

For Erdoğan, the new conditions can hardly be improved. The Turkish president argued that the meeting with Herzog would be a 'turning point' for the future. An analysis shared by the Israeli head of state. In Herzog's opinion, the two countries "can and should" collaborate in different areas. A collaboration that he hopes will follow a "profound process of dialogue".

The profile of Isaac Herzog, who is compared in Israel to the late Shimon Peres because of his mood and his Labour political family, has facilitated the rapprochement with Erdoğan, with whom he has held several talks in recent months. His presidency, stripped of any autonomous decision-making in foreign policy, has been characterised by the regular consultations with the new prime minister, Natfali Bennett, in this regard, gaining weight in the government's stance.

This détente, intended and beneficial 'a priori' for both sides, can be explained by the rapprochement dynamic undertaken by Ankara for some time now, aimed at ironing out differences with its regional rivals such as Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Egypt. But above all, it responds to the renewed energy panorama that Russia's aggression in Ukraine has provoked. The invasion launched by the Kremlin pushed the West to punish Moscow with sanctions.

Europe's main gas supplier has lost all credit. And Brussels is working to wean itself off its enormous dependence on Russia as it seeks new energy sources. It is here that the eastern Mediterranean, waters with vast energy reserves in which both Israel and Turkey have interests, becomes duly important as a new avenue for supplying gas to the continent.

The Jewish state is a gas power. As a leading member of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF), Israel has forged gas alliances with countries such as Greece, Cyprus and Egypt, Turkey's regional rivals. A critical juncture from which Ankara wants to extricate itself. But the idiosyncrasies of the Turkish regime, with its markedly Islamist leanings, have not changed.

Israeli diplomatic sources told Al-Monitor of Erdoğan's hostile perception of what the state of Israel stands for: "We realise that Erdoğan has not changed. He doesn't like us, maybe the opposite, and he could turn against us at any time. But the AKP leader has no time to find alternative solutions and needs to mitigate the crisis plaguing Turkey.