IAEA Director General warns on Iran's nuclear programme: "We are flying blind"

"Iran has an ambitious and sophisticated nuclear programme under development," warned the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, during an interview with the US media Axios. For the head of the organisation, reactivating the nuclear agreement with Iran is "essential" because otherwise "we are flying blind".

"No, there is no information to indicate that at the moment," Grossi responded when asked about Iran's active nuclear weapons programme. However, the director-general qualified: "When you enrich [uranium] to 60 per cent, you are very close. It is technically indistinguishable from weapons-grade material."

The IAEA chief responded from the agency's headquarters in Vienna, a location that has been hosting talks between the actors involved in the nuclear deal since April. The sixth and final round of negotiations, divided into three separate working groups, also took place in the Austrian capital on Saturday.

Two of the groups are negotiating the lifting of Washington's sanctions on Tehran, while the third is trying to lay the groundwork for the agreement. To date, the parties have not found a common ground that would allow the resumption of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) reached in 2015.

In the absence of a maximum agreement, the IAEA managed in May to extend its monitoring of Iran's nuclear activities for a month after the Persian authorities tried to restrict their cooperation with the agency through parliamentary channels. The organisation will try to extend the monitoring as of 24 June, once the agreed deadline expires, and thus unblock the blockade.

In any case, this monitoring will be deferred. The data collected by the IAEA over the last three months will not be accessible until 24 June, although Iran will provide quarterly updates, as Grossi himself acknowledged. "When you combine [the significant increase in enrichment] with the fact that our inspection access is being restricted, then I start to worry," he admitted. 

The JCPOA was intended to prevent the Islamic Republic of Iran from developing nuclear weapons, so the agreement curtailed its uranium enrichment programme. However, Washington's unilateral withdrawal by unequivocal decision of former President Trump, as well as the subsequent imposition of sanctions on the Iranian regime, led to its non-compliance with the agreement.

Since then, Iran has enriched uranium to levels far in excess of the limits set by the agreement, an action that contradicts Tehran's initial version, which has always claimed that it has no plans to develop atomic or hydrogen bombs, and that its nuclear programme is peaceful in nature.

Spokespersons for France, Germany and Britain, which make up the E3 group, stressed the importance of Iran in allowing the IAEA to maintain its monitoring and verification work, and urged the two main players to "find a way forward". "IAEA access will, of course, be essential to our efforts to restore the JCPOA, as an agreement cannot be implemented without it," the group stressed.

The Biden administration aims to revive the deal, first and only reached during Barack Obama's tenure. However, Iran's demands include a full lifting of sanctions, a request that Washington rejects outright.

"Even if the JCPOA is reinstated, hundreds of sanctions against Iran, including those imposed by Trump, will remain in place. If those sanctions are not inconsistent with that plan and if Iran does not change its behaviour, they will remain in place," said US State Department Secretary Antony Blinken.

The US has the backing of the UN agency, which is also wary of Tehran. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi claimed that Iran's assurances were not transparent, a factor that would undermine the organisation's ability to guarantee the allegedly peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear programme. 

In this regard, the Persian authorities called on the IAEA director general to maintain a degree of impartiality in the talks and to distance himself from any political agenda by "adopting a unilateral approach".

The G-7 summit in Cornwall was quick to make pronouncements on this issue. The leaders of the seven major powers again guaranteed that Iran "will never develop a nuclear weapon". "A restored and fully implemented JCPOA could pave the way to further address regional and security concerns," they said in a joint communiqué.

Friday 18 June promises to be decisive for the future of the nuclear deal, as Iran holds a new presidential election marked by a pressing economic crisis and a demobilised electorate. The regime's veto of reformist-leaning candidates sparked outrage among Iranians, who refuse to go to the polls.

The participants in the Vienna talks have this date on their calendar, the outcome of which will irreversibly influence the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The candidates running to succeed President Hassan Rohani are hardliners in the regime, and are critical of Washington's demands on the agreement.  

Cleric and current Supreme Court Chief Justice Ebrahim Raisi is the front-runner in the election, thanks in part to the backing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Raisi, head of the judiciary and part of the regime's hard core, was defeated in 2017 by Rohani himself, who will eventually be removed from power after serving the maximum number of terms allowed.

The Iranian news agency IRNA reported statements by Raisi's campaign spokesman, Alireza Afshar, in which he said that his candidate believes in the need to continue negotiations on the nuclear deal, although he understands them "as a marginal issue" unrelated to the country's real problems.

Raisi is expected to act "within the framework of the system's policies" and follow the foreign policy line "with an emphasis on diplomacy". In any case, Raisi wields great power within the regime as head of the judiciary and defender of Iran's largest mosque in Mashhad, so he would - if he wins - have the ability to impose his own line in this regard.

The sanctions regime imposed by the international community over the past two decades has weakened Iran. For this reason, Tehran was forced to sign the 2015 nuclear deal to ease its domestic situation, although it has so far reneged on its commitments in this regard.