Imamoglu's arrest shakes Turkey and unleashes a political crisis

The arrest of the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, has shaken up the Turkish political scene, unleashing a wave of reactions both nationally and internationally. Imamoglu, the main rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was arrested on charges of corruption and aiding a terrorist group, in an event that the opposition has described as an attempted coup against the next presidential candidate. 

Specifically, the authorities accuse Imamoglu, 54, of having helped the PKK, outlawed as a terrorist group by Turkey, the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States. Earlier this month, the Kurdish organisation announced its decision to lay down its arms, a move that could mark a significant step towards peace in Turkey.

Imamoglu's arrest comes at a crucial political moment, when he was consolidating his position as the strongest candidate to face the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the upcoming presidential elections. With Erdogan unable to seek a new term unless he calls early elections or amends the constitution, many saw Imamoglu as a figure capable of defeating the current president's successor, potentially Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. 

The arrest has provoked immediate reactions within the Eurasian country. Hundreds of people gathered in front of the police station where he was detained, the Town Hall and the headquarters of the Republican People's Party (CHP), chanting slogans against the AKP. Despite the temporary ban on protests and the closure of key streets, such as the famous Taksim Square, popular indignation has not been long in coming. ‘The day will come when the AKP will be held accountable,’ the demonstrators shouted. 

In addition to closing streets, the authorities suspended traffic on several roads around Istanbul and banned demonstrations in the city for four days. In the capital, Ankara, thousands of people gathered near the Ministry of Justice to protest against the arrests. 

Imamoglu's arrest has also had repercussions on the fragile Turkish economy. The main index on the Istanbul Stock Exchange fell 7% following the news, which led to a temporary suspension of operations to avoid panic and stabilise the market. Operations were subsequently resumed, but were suspended again in the afternoon. The Turkish lira also lost approximately 3.5% of its value against the dollar.

On a political level, the leader of the CHP, Ozgur Ozel, reaffirmed his party's support for Imamoglu, announcing that he would continue to be their presidential candidate despite the circumstances. The mayor of Istanbul was to be named the party's official presidential candidate in a matter of days. 

‘We are witnessing a coup d'état against the next president,’ Ozel said, underlining the threat that Imamoglu poses to Erdogan's power. ‘Today, the will of the people is being usurped through a judicial coup against the citizens of Istanbul,’ he added 

The accusations against Imamoglu have also reached the academic sphere. Istanbul University invalidated his university degree, which could hinder his candidacy, as the Turkish constitution requires a higher education degree to run for president. Imamoglu has called this decision ‘illegal’ and has announced that he will challenge it in court. ‘We are facing great tyranny, but I want you to know that I will not be discouraged,’ Imamoglu said in a video posted on social media.

The mayor's arrest adds to a series of legal actions that many consider part of a systematic campaign of judicial harassment against Erdogan's opponents. In recent years, Imamoglu has faced numerous judicial investigations, and in 2023 he was banned from running for office due to a conviction for ‘insulting’ members of the Supreme Election Commission. 

Berk Esen, professor of political science at Sabancı University, explains to Al-Arab that this arrest could push Turkey towards an authoritarian dynamic similar to that of countries such as Venezuela or Russia. ‘What has happened is nothing less than a coup d'état against the main opposition party, with serious implications for the country's political future,’ Esen said. 

Meanwhile, the Minister of Justice, Yilmaz Tunç, has rejected any insinuation of a connection between Erdogan and the arrest, warning against the use of the term ‘coup’ to describe the legal proceedings and discouraging street protests. 

At an international level, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, expressed her deep concern about the arrest of İmamoglu and reminded Turkey of its obligation to uphold democratic values. ‘Turkey is a candidate country for EU accession and must uphold democratic values, especially the rights of elected officials,’ von der Leyen told reporters in Brussels. 

‘We want Turkey to remain anchored in Europe, but this requires a clear commitment to democratic norms and practices, and it is essential that Turkey respects these fundamental principles,’ she concluded. 

The United States has also urged the Turkish authorities to ‘respect human rights’ following the arrest of Imamoglu.

With an increasingly polarised and uncertain political landscape, the arrest of Imamoglu marks a turning point in Turkey's contemporary history. The outcome of this process could redefine the country's political future and determine the course of the next presidential election.