La encrucijada del Frente Polisario

The war in Ukraine may affect the Polisario Front's already dwindling support on the international stage. The recent visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Algeria, the Polisario Front's biggest partner, once again raises suspicions in this context of increased tension between the Russian and Western blocs.

Even within the Polisario Front itself, factional tensions are reportedly growing. According to journalist Mohammed Jaabouk for the daily Yabiladi, in the Tindouf camp, a wing of the Polisario Front, self-proclaimed as the Groupe de Redressement Révolutionnaire (GRR), is reportedly opposed to the Polisario Front leadership. The political organisation is preparing for a general congress next December. According to Jaabouk, this group is the main rival to Brahim Ghali's core group. 

Still according to Mohammed Jaabouk, citing a statement from the GRR, this new political section of the Polisario calls for a greater separation between the Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic and the Polisario Front, as well as the election of a vice-president.

The Polisario Front's support would gradually dwindle, and this trend would accelerate in the context of the war. Following the United States and its recognition, the position of Germany, Spain and even the European Commission, which had already created a sort of Brussels-Rabat "front", annoyed by the cancellation of its fisheries agreements in Western Sahara, also changed. 

These fisheries agreements can be seen to some extent as the materialisation of the EU's frustration at the lack of real state regulation in Western Sahara. Morocco has been quick to present itself as the ideal partner to provide solutions. 

The Kingdom of Morocco has had effective control over the Saharawi coast for years. Its advance in the southern regions in recent decades has pushed the Polisario Front into the interior territories, always bordering Algeria and Mauritania. Meanwhile, the coastal strip running down from El Ayoun to Guerguerat is experiencing infrastructural gains, almost for the first time since Spain's exit from the Sahara. 

Gonzalo Alvarez-Castellanos, a Spaniard resident in the Sahara and an expert in the development of tourism in the region, said in an interview for Atalayar that ports such as Dakhla had seen a special investment in public works to improve their facilities. These facilities are awaiting international agreements and investment from private enterprise before they can be put into operation.
 
But without international recognition and regulation there is no business. In February 2019, the European Parliament voted in favour of a fishing partnership between the EU and Morocco in the waters of Western Sahara. The agreement gave fishing licences to European-flagged vessels for a duration of 4 years and stipulated a contribution of 208 million euros during this time. The monetary contribution was intended to promote sustainable fisheries off the coast of Western Sahara. 

Up to 130 vessels from 10 EU countries were expected to benefit from the European side, according to the document approved by the European Parliament. Around 900 European fishermen, estimated at an average of 6-7 crew members per vessel, would benefit from a surplus of product that local fishermen could not reach. 

The agreement did not in any way define a new consideration of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara. Despite this, the Polisario Front lodged an appeal with the General Court of the European Union, which two years later ruled in favour of the plaintiff, considering that the EU and Morocco were making a pact over the resources of a region that under international law did not belong to either party to the agreements. In 2021, after little more than a year in operation, the European vessels left the Sahara. 

Following the freezing of the fisheries agreement, the European Commission submitted a very favourable report to Rabat on the negative effects of the EU General Court's ruling, a sign of the Commission's goodwill with Morocco regarding progress towards regularising and normalising the situation in the Sahara.