Iran fears US control over the Zangezur corridor following the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Iran fears for its security and its inability to respond to a possible US strategic encirclement of the Zangezur corridor following the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan brokered by President Donald Trump. 

In Tehran, this development is seen as a strategic encirclement that limits Iran's influence in the Caucasus and restricts its access to Europe via Armenia. 

Observers say the involvement of the Trump administration in facilitating understandings between Armenia and Azerbaijan was primarily aimed at securing a key strategic access point for the US to contain Iran. This fits within a wider strategy designed to block any Iranian economic opening to the outside world, including oil exports, while amplifying the effect of US sanctions. It also provides Washington and NATO with access to the Caspian Sea and the potential to threaten Iran should advanced forces or weaponry be deployed to monitor regional military activity.

The corridor, 42 kilometres long and running along Iran’s border, has been dubbed the “Trump Road to International Peace and Prosperity.” It will operate under Armenian law, with the United States managing the leased land for a 99-year renewable term. Its stated objective is to strengthen overland connectivity between Azerbaijan and Turkey, while expanding regional trade networks.

Historically, Iran, which shares borders with both Azerbaijan and Armenia, formed part of the transit routes linking Russia and Armenia, giving it both economic and political leverage. 

Beyond establishing a US presence on Iran’s borders, the agreement delivers strategic gains for Ankara, reviving the concept of a “Turkic world” and creating a long-term encirclement of Iran.

The corridor links Turkey with Azerbaijan’s Caspian coastline, and from there to Central Asia and China, granting Ankara unrestricted access to Central Asian oil and gas resources. 

Analysts also note that US control over the corridor, effectively cutting Iran off from Armenia, the Caucasus and Europe, could undermine China’s Belt and Road Initiative, in which Iran plays a central role. 

In a phone call with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned of “potential US actions seeking regional dominance under the guise of economic investment and peace guarantees,” according to a statement from Tehran. 

Iran opposes the corridor, fearing it will sever the country’s access to Armenia and other Caucasus states and enable the deployment of hostile foreign forces near its borders.

Pezeshkian stressed that Iran “welcomes any agreement that strengthens peace” between neighbouring states but highlighted the need to prevent “the intervention of any military or security power” in the corridor’s implementation, according to his office. 

On Saturday, a senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader warned that Tehran would not allow the corridor’s establishment, cautioning that the area could become “a graveyard for Trump’s mercenaries.” 

The Trump Road to International Peace and Prosperity will run through southern Armenia, providing Azerbaijan direct access to its Nakhchivan exclave and onward to Turkey. The United States will gain exclusive development rights for the corridor, which the White House says will facilitate increased exports of energy and other resources. 

How Iran might prevent the project remains unclear. However, comments from Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to the Supreme Leader, have raised security concerns. He noted that military exercises in northwestern Iran demonstrated the Islamic Republic’s preparedness and determination to counter any geopolitical changes. “This corridor will not become Trump’s road; it will be a graveyard for Trump’s mercenaries,” he said. 

Earlier, Iran’s ministry of foreign affairs had welcomed the agreement “as an important step toward lasting regional peace,” while warning that any foreign intervention near its borders could “undermine regional security and lasting stability.” 

Analysts and informed sources suggest that Iran, already under mounting US pressure over its nuclear programme and the fallout from last June’s 12-day war with Israel, lacks the military capability to close the corridor. 

Trump hosted Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the White House on Friday, where both leaders signed a joint declaration aimed at ending decades of conflict. 

Russia did not attend the meeting, despite its border guards being stationed along the Armenia-Iran border. Moscow has traditionally served as Armenia’s mediator and ally in the South Caucasus, where oil and gas pipelines converge. 

While Moscow expressed support for the summit, it suggested “solutions developed by the regional states themselves, supported by their immediate neighbours Russia, Iran and Turkey,” to avoid what it termed the “unfortunate precedent” of Western mediation in the Middle East. 

The Armenia-Azerbaijan dispute dates back to the late 1980s, when the Nagorno-Karabakh region, with Armenian backing, seceded from Azerbaijan. Nagorno-Karabakh is a mountainous region in Azerbaijan with a predominantly Armenian population. 

Azerbaijan regained full control of the area in 2023 through a military offensive, prompting nearly 100,000 remaining Armenians to flee to Armenia. Azerbaijani Ambassador to the UK Elin Suleymanov said: “The era of enmity has ended; we are now moving towards lasting peace,” predicting that the region’s prosperity and transport links would see positive transformation. 

Pashinyan has called this year for a constitutional referendum, though no date has yet been set. Armenia is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in June 2026, with the new constitution expected to be drafted beforehand. 

In a post on X, the Armenian premier stated that the Washington summit would pave the way to end decades of conflict and allow the operation of transport lines in the region, creating strategic economic opportunities. 

Joshua Kucera, senior South Caucasus analyst at the International Crisis Group, observed that the summit was not the easy victory Trump might have hoped for, leaving many questions unresolved in the agreements.