Iran heads for a run-off election marked by abstentions
- Abstention will again be the protagonist in the second round of voting
- Conservatives call for a vote for Jalili
- "Without profound change, disaffection will continue"
The Islamic Republic of Iran is preparing for the second round of presidential elections after only 39.9% of citizens cast their ballots the previous week. This low turnout shows once again the general discontent of the Iranian people due to the lack of freedoms and the economic situation.
This Friday, after the withdrawal of the candidates with the fewest votes, the conservative Saeed Jalili and the reformist Masoud Pezeshkian, who have already participated in the first pre-election debate, will face each other at the polls.
The two candidates debated the economy, ethnic and religious minorities and foreign policy. On this point, Pezeshkian, who advocates improving relations with the West, stressed the importance of expanding Iran's international ties, prioritising first neighbouring countries and then other nations in order to achieve economic growth.
He also stated that his foreign policy would be based on "engagement with the world" and raised the possibility of participating in negotiations to lift the current sanctions.
Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator, argued for "a dynamic foreign policy", stressing that it should not be limited to those nations with which there are tensions and disagreements, referring to the US and the West in general. Instead, "Iran should look to the other 200 nations of the world where foreign relations should be improved", he said.
On the economy, the conservative said that "with the support of the people" Iran would achieve economic growth of 8% per year, while Pezeshkian asked why, despite huge oil sales, Iranians' standard of living remained low.
Another issue raised in the debate was internet restrictions. Jalili stressed that social networks that are already restricted, such as Telegram, X and Instagram, must comply with regulations to operate in Iran, while Pezeshkian, while defending internet limitations at certain times such as protests, argued that there is no justification for maintaining current restrictions.
Nevertheless, both promised to provide better and faster internet in order to capture the younger vote.
During the election campaign, Pezeshkian has also put forward measures that would relax the current hijab law. However, as political analyst Daniel Bashandeh points out, the compulsory veil "is a symbol of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the decision is not in the hands of the president". "The important thing is that we see more and more Iranian women going out on the streets without the veil in defiance of the authorities and the law," he adds.
Abstention will again be the protagonist in the second round of voting
Pezeshkian and Jalili also agreed that the low turnout in the first round - the lowest in the history of the Islamic Republic - should be analysed. "It is not acceptable that around 60% of citizens did not cast their vote," said Pezeshkian.
Despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's call for "maximum" mobilisation, turnout for this first round has declined compared to the 2021 presidential election, where 48% of Iranians voted, as well as the parliamentary elections three months ago, where it reached an all-time low of 41%.
Regarding this run-off, Bashandeh believes that turnout is likely to be low again as neither candidate has addressed the causes of the protests despite all the opportunities they have had in the debates. "The Iranian people are demanding more rights and opportunities. Without causes there is no mobilisation", he stresses.
"The conservative voter tends to turn out to vote and is loyal to the Islamic Republic, for political, religious and economic reasons", while reformist candidates "need a high turnout to have a chance", he notes. However, Bashandeh recalls that reformists have failed to mobilise the population despite the fact that the reformist political elite, such as Rohani and Khatami, have taken a stand in their favour.
Conservatives call for a vote for Jalili
In the first round, according to official figures, Pezeshkian received more than 10.41 million votes out of a total of more than 24.5 million ballots counted, followed by Jalili with 9.47 million votes.
Other candidates included parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who received 3.38 million votes, and cleric Mostafa Pourmohammadi, with 206,397.
Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani and former Vice-President Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi also initially ran for the elections but later withdrew in order to concentrate votes around the most likely candidates.
Ghalibaf, Zakani and Ghazizadeh Hashemi have all called on their supporters to vote for Jalili in Friday's run-off to ensure victory for the "revolutionary front".
"In the first round Pezeshkian won because there were two conservative candidates - Qalibaf and Jalili - and caused the vote to be split," explains Bashandeh, who stresses that "the key is where the votes of Qalibaf, who has already asked his voters to align with Jalili, will go". "If the two conservative candidacies are added together they will outnumber the number of votes obtained by Pezeshkian," he adds.
"Without profound change, disaffection will continue"
These elections are the first presidential elections to be held after the massive protests following the murder of young Mahsa Amini for wearing the Islamic headscarf incorrectly. These demonstrations have spread beyond Iran's borders, where Iranians have demanded stronger government action against the regime.
Although Amini's death was the trigger for these historic protests, other causes gradually came to the fore and brought people out onto the streets, especially the younger ones. Almost all of the demands were related to the lack of freedoms and opportunities, as well as the regime's heavy restrictions and brutality against protesters.
"The Islamic Republic needs structural reforms. The elections have made it clear that the system only represents a minority of the country. Without deep change, disaffection will continue", concludes Bashandeh.