Iran in the face of Donald Trump's election victory

Iran tried to play down the significance of Donald Trump's election victory in the United States. 

“The US elections are not really our business. Our policies are steady and don’t change based on individuals. We made the necessary predictions before and there will not be change in people’s livelihoods,” said government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency. 

The Revolutionary Guards did not directly react to Trump’s electoral victory but tried to pull a defiant posture saying Tehran and its allied proxies in the region are ready for confrontation with Israel.

“The Zionists do not have the power to confront us and they must wait for our response … our depots have enough weapons for that,” the Guards’ deputy chief Ali Fadavi said on Wednesday, as Tehran is expected to respond to Israel’s October 25 strikes on its territory which killed four soldiers.

He added Tehran does not rule out a potential US-Israel pre-emptive strike to prevent it from retaliating against Israel. 

Tehran’s unconcerned and defiant facade is barely concealing the concerns of its establishment, say analysts who point to speculations that Trump may re-impose his “maximum pressure policy” through heightened sanctions on Iran’s oil industry and green-light Israel’s plans to strike its nuclear sites and hydrocarbon facilities and conduct “targeted assassinations” against Iranian targets. 

During his first mandate, Trump reapplied sanctions on Iran after he withdrew from a 2015 nuclear pact between Iran and world powers that had curtailed Tehran’s nuclear programme in exchange for economic benefits. 

The reinstatement of US sanctions in 2018 hit Iran’s oil exports, slashing government revenues and forcing it to take unpopular steps such as increasing taxes and running big budget deficits, policies that have kept annual inflation close to 40 percent. 

Iran’s national currency has weakened at the prospect of a Trump presidency, reaching an all-time low of 700,000 rials to the US dollar on the free market, according to Iranian currency tracking website Bonbast.com. 

Some, however, suspect Trump will be cautious about the possibility of war. 

“Trump is a businessman. He knows Iran is powerful and can turn the Middle East to hell if attacked. He wants to end wars in the region not fuel it,” said Reza Mohammadi, a member of Iran’s volunteer Basij militia in the central city of Isfahan. 

In 2018, the then-Trump administration exited Iran’s 2015 nuclear pact with six major powers and reimposed harsh sanctions on Iran, prompting Tehran to violate the pact’s nuclear limits, such as rebuilding stockpiles of enriched uranium, refining it to higher fissile purity and installing advanced centrifuges to speed up output. 

Efforts to revive the pact have failed, but Trump said in his campaign in September that “We have to make a deal, because the consequences are impossible. We have to make a deal.” 

It was the bite of US, EU and UN sanctions over Tehran’s nuclear programme that forced Tehran to reach the 2015 nuclear pact, under which Iran agreed to curb its nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions.

Trump’s tough stance could force Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say in the country’s foreign and nuclear policy, to approve talks “whether direct or indirect” with the United states, two Iranian officials told Reuters on condition of anonymity. 

After casting his vote, Trump told reporters that “I don’t want to do damage to Iran, but they cannot have nuclear weapons.” 

Iranian analysts and insiders did not dismiss the possibility of a detente between Tehran and Washington “without restoring diplomatic ties.” 

“Iran will act based on its own interests. It is possible that secret talks between Tehran and Washington take place. If security threats against the Islamic Republic are removed, anything is possible,” said Tehran-based analyst Saeed Laylaz. 

While facing off against arch-foe Israel, Iran’s clerical leadership is also concerned about the possibility of an all-out war in the region, where Israel is engaged in conflicts with Tehran’s allies in Gaza and Lebanon. 

In an election campaign speech in October, Trump stated his unwillingness to go to war with Iran, but said Israel should “hit the Iranian nuclear first and worry about the rest later,” in response to Iran’s missile attack on Israel on October 1. 

Israel retaliated with air strikes on Iranian military targets, especially missile production sites, on October 26.