Iran nuclear deal heads into the home stretch for reissue

The reactivation of the nuclear deal could be a matter of days. After 16 months of negotiations with ups and downs, back and forth, interruptions and controversies, the parties are outlining the final conditions of the text presented last week by the European Union. The External Action Service, headed by Spanish diplomat Enrique Mora, Josep Borrell's number two, revived talks that were hanging by a thread. A deal now seems imminent, but it all depends on Iran and the US. 

Last week, Brussels put the final draft of the deal on the table and imposed a deadline on the parties to formalise its approval. Days later, Iran submitted a response that sparked optimism in the EU capital. For the first time, there were solid signs of a commitment to compromise. But it was not a definitive 'yes', but a conditional 'yes'. It was a green light, but only if three aspects of the draft were modified. 

In Tehran, the ball is in Washington's court. The Biden Administration would have the last word to seal the return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the agreement signed in 2015 that put a limit on Iran's nuclear ambitions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. In 2018, Trump unilaterally withdrew the US to instead impose a hard line with the ayatollahs' regime. His successor pledged to salvage an agreement he witnessed as Barack Obama's vice president.

"Right now Iran is waiting for the US response to its response on Monday," Andrew Ghalili, senior policy analyst at the Jewish Institute for National Security in America (JINSA), told Atalayar. Even if the US were to accept that response, I think Iran would find some more demands."

Versions differ. Washington claims that the Iranian response did not guarantee its approval of the immediate reactivation of the agreement, but in fact raised new objections to be studied by the Biden administration. But the parties have not waited to officially confirm the reissuance of the nuclear deal before selling their diplomatic gains. Both sides are boasting about the concessions made by their interlocutor. 

Iran's chief negotiator in Vienna, Ali Bagheri Kani, assured in a closed-door meeting with journalists that Washington had given in to the demands presented by Tehran in the latest draft, according to Iran International, related to the completion of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) investigation into the traces of uranium found in three Iranian atomic facilities and the guarantees of maintaining the agreement in the event of a change of administration, as well as those referring to the designation of the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organisation. 

However, according to official sources consulted by CNN, Iran was responsible for abandoning at least one of its demands. Specifically, the one related to the removal of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, an elite branch of the Persian Army known as the Pasdaran, from the list of terrorist organisations drawn up by the State Department. This was confirmed by Ali Bagheri Kani, who later clarified that this issue would be addressed once the JCPOA was signed.

"The terrorism designation was always an Iranian distraction from the nuclear deal negotiations, intended to delay the talks and drag them out while Iran advanced its nuclear programme and obtained additional concessions from the United States. The FTO designation is not a nuclear issue, and was placed in the IRGC after the JCPOA," Ghalili argues. "The US has repeatedly said that if Iran wants concessions external to the JCPOA, it would have to reciprocate by offering its own concessions external to the JCPOA."

In an interview with Israel's Channel 12 on his regional tour of the Middle East, Biden was adamant that he would not disqualify Pasdaran as an FTO (Foreign Terrorist Organisation) even if it meant breaking off negotiations to resume the nuclear deal. For Washington, this is a "red line". The Revolutionary Guard is a branch of the armed forces whose weight within the ayatollahs' regime has turned it into a parallel state, always in close contact with like-minded militias in the region that destabilise its adversaries. 

The JINSA analyst notes that "the Iranian negotiator [Ali Bagheri Kani] is trying to sell the deal to lawmakers in the Majlis, the Iranian parliament, by outlining all the concessions the US has offered. The US negotiator, Rob Malley, is doing the opposite, hiding from Congress." "The only 'victory' the US is touting in the media is the continued designation of the IRGC as the FTO, which has nothing to do with the nuclear deal and should never have been involved in the talks in the first place."

The only doubt that remains to be resolved is whether the sanctions on the dozens of companies and banks linked to the Revolutionary Guard will be lifted. In principle, up to 17 banks and companies will be exempted after the signing, but others will continue to be subject to the economic restrictions imposed by the Treasury Department. 

One of the leaked points, advanced by Iran International, includes a US commitment to guarantee that "all foreign companies that begin working with Iran" will be exempt from "possible US sanctions" for the two and a half years following the end of Biden's presidency, until 2026. A clause that would not be binding in the event of Washington's withdrawal, but would add international pressure in the event of a new abandonment. 

Domestically, strong Republican opposition has been reinforced by the revelation of Iranian plans to assassinate former national security adviser John Bolton and the knife attack in New York on Salman Rushdie, author of The Satanic Verses, which drew praise from Iran's pro-government press and the regime's top brass. A fatwa by the father of the 1979 Iranian revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, called for his assassination three decades ago. 

Externally, pressure from Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid has also been felt. The incumbent Hebrew premier spoke with the chairman of the US Congress' Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa and International Terrorism, Ted Deutch, and the US ambassador to Israel, Tom Nides, to persuade them of the dangers of reissuing the JCPOA. Lapid argues that the deal "goes beyond the 2015 agreement" and is not in line with Washington's interests. 

State Department spokesman Ned Price acknowledged "tactical differences" with its "Israeli partners", but qualified that "we are aligned in the firm belief that Iran must never be allowed to acquire or possess a nuclear weapon". "There is no doubt that a nuclear-armed Iran would feel an even greater degree of impunity, and would pose an even greater threat, a much greater threat, to countries in the region and potentially far beyond," he concluded.

"All the parties involved say this is the closest we have ever come to an agreement, but they have also consistently missed their deadlines throughout the negotiations," the analyst recalls. "I still think it is unlikely that we will see a deal signed until after the US mid-term elections, but for the last six months it has been said that a deal could be done in a matter of days. So it's definitely possible that it could happen soon," Ghalili finishes. 

Coordinator Americas: José Antonio Sierra