Iranian squad arrested for planning an attack on Israelis in the Emirates

Thousands of people commemorated the first anniversary of the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in various parts of the Middle East last day. Especially in Baghdad, the Iraqi capital where the missile that killed the Iranian leader was launched by the United States. A year after the attack, several Israeli media have gathered information pointing to an alleged attempt at revenge against the US allies in the region. 

The intelligence services of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have arrested an Iranian group located in the cities of Dubai and Abu Dhabi accused of planning a series of attacks on Israeli citizens present in the country, according to N12. Members of the faction are being investigated by the UAE authorities.

The first hypotheses suggest that the squadron had planned an attack outside Israel's borders, taking advantage of the increased flow of visitors from this country to the UAE following the normalisation of its diplomatic relations.

The assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh on 27 November near Tehran fuelled tension in the region. Iran pointed the finger at Israel for the attack, an accusation that has fuelled the Persian authorities' quest for revenge. 

This threat of an attack comes days after the Iranian foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, accused the still president of the United States, Donald Trump, of "seeking an excuse to start a war against Iran". "The intelligence coming to us from Iraq indicates that there is a plot to manufacture a pretext and start a war," the minister said on Twitter. In this way, Javad Zarif has stressed that Iran "is not looking for any kind of war, but will directly and openly defend its people, its security and its vital interests".

The Israeli response to these accusations was categorical. The Israeli energy minister, Yuval Steinitz, described these theories as "nonsense" and urged the country to remain in a "state of alert". "This is a warning sign that Iran is targeting Israel, it is looking for excuses to attack Israel," the minister said.

Chili Tropper, the Israeli culture minister, who is part of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's security cabinet along with Steinitz, confirmed his colleague's statements by saying that the Israeli authorities are on the alert because of the anniversary of Soleimani's assassination.

During the past months of the Trump Administration, the United States has been expanding its military presence in the region to prevent any kind of reprisal directed at both the US and its Israeli partners, who are responsible for Fakhrizadeh's assassination. Israeli media furthermore assure that their government has reinforced security at embassies around the world.

Protecting Israeli travellers is a challenge. Israel has been forced to do so after the exponential increase in Israeli movement in the UAE following the normalisation of its diplomatic relations. The UAE is one of the only destinations available to Israeli travellers as a result of COVID-19. It is estimated that some 25,000 Israelis will fly to the UAE during the Hanukkah holiday.

For its part, the country of the ayatollahs maintains a significant presence in Dubai. Trade links between Iran and the Emirates continue to be maintained, which has fuelled the theory that the city serves as a base for the Iranian intelligence services.

The most complex role is played by the Emirates. Its authorities condemned the attack on Fajrizadeh and warned of a possible escalation, though, guided by the United States, they established diplomatic relations with Israel, a factor that now worries the emirates. The country may be subject to Iranian reprisals like the attacks on the oil tankers suffered just a year ago.

The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, wished to visit the UAE and Bahrain in December, but his trip was postponed due to the agenda days before Fakhrizadeh's assassination. In principle the visit will take place at the end of January; however, Israeli and emirate officials say they are not clear whether it will finally take place, owing to security concerns and political sensitivity.