Israel once again at an electoral crossroads

6.5 million Israelis are called to the polls for the fourth time in just two years. Polls opened at 7 a.m. and voter turnout was reportedly 14.8% at 10 a.m., higher than in previous elections. This is surprising news as several polls had pointed to a high abstention rate as a result of the weariness of a fourth election due to the inability to form a stable coalition government to deal with the pandemic.

The main polls give victory to the current prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, although his bloc would fail to win the 61-seat majority needed in the House to form a coalition. Netanyahu's campaign has relied heavily on the vaccination campaign, under the slogan "We are back to life", with 4 million citizens immunised, and a rapid economic recovery.

In the previous elections Netanyahu relied on his relationship with former President Donald Trump, and his normalisation of relations with some Arab countries. However, on this occasion, defence and foreign relations issues have taken a back seat, as has the Palestinian question, which has not featured in any debate.

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla has been the protagonist in these elections, where Netanyahu has appropriated the health ministry's slogan and went to the airport to receive the first vaccines. He was also the first to be vaccinated in Israel and lifted the third national lockdown at the ideal time for these elections to arrive in a situation of apparent "normality".

Israelis have had to go to the polls in April and September 2019 and March 2020. The latter follow the collapse of the unity government agreed in May 2020 by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition Blue and White leader Benny Gantz after seven months of bitter infighting. Finally, unable to pass the budget, the coalition government was dissolved.

The agreement between Likud and the Blue and White coalition stipulated a single budget for two years (2020 and 2021), but Likud proposed to vote on two different budgets and its partner did not accept. The coalition agreement also proposed turnover in the prime minister's position, and some local analysts interpreted this move as a strategy by Netanyahu to avoid handing over the prime minister's seat to his rival.

This coalition agreement has dealt a blow to the Blue and White party, led by former army chief Benny Gantz, which may go from 33 seats to not even entering the House. The strongest opposition to "Bibi" - the nickname by which the prime minister is known - is Yair Lapid, leader of the Yesh Atid party.

Polls point to a clear Likud victory and a parliament in which the ultra-conservative and religious bloc has a clear majority. The prime minister also has the undisputed support of the ultra-Orthodox Yamina and Tikva Chadasha parties. However, many analysts point out that if Netanyahu fails to win 61 seats, a fifth election would be precipitated, while "Bibi" would continue to serve as acting prime minister, offering him immunity from imminent trial on corruption charges.

A new face in these elections is Merav Michaeli, the only woman to head a list for these legislative elections. Michaeli has set out to revive the Israeli Labour Party, a somewhat complicated mission as polls do not expect her to get more than 5% of the vote.

For its part, the Joint List, which won 15 seats in March 2020, is predicting its worst results since the break-up of one of the parties in the alliance, which is the third largest force in parliament. Prime Minister Netanyahu, after convincing its leader, Mansour Abbas, that he could obtain better public services for his voters if he had the backing of the new government, brought about the departure of the Raam Party, the religious and conservative wing of the Joint List.

Benjamin Netanyahu has sought to take advantage of the power vacuum left by the break-up of the Joint List and to appeal to Israeli Arabs, who make up 20 per cent of the country's population, through the slogan 'Abu Yair'. Netanyahu has promised to improve their living conditions, and in particular to put an end to the citizen insecurity bleeding their communities. Some polls indicate that Netanyahu could win between one and two MPs in the Arab sector.

Both victory and a repeat election would benefit the current prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who would continue to enjoy immunity from corruption charges. The future of Israel, sharply divided into two blocs, pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu, will be decided again today.