Israel, once again facing political deadlock

Barely a year after the last parliamentary elections in Israel, it seems that nothing has changed in the political scenario of the Jewish state. Once again the Israeli population has been called to vote, and once again the final result of the elections is not at all flattering, with no clear winner, with a strong blockade in both blocs - anti-Netanyahu and pro-Netanyahu - forced to juggle with multiple parties of a very heterogeneous nature. Israel is on the verge of a fifth election.

But although history is repeating itself, the context is very different from a little over a year ago. Firstly, this is the year of the pandemic, in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has played all his cards in the race for the vaccine and has based his campaign on the success of vaccination. Israel has vaccinated 50% of its population with Pfizer's two doses. Netanyahu's election campaign has waved the slogan "We are back to life", claiming credit for the health ministry's success, and opening up social life, just in time, to convey an atmosphere of "normality" at the time of the vote. 

On foreign relations, "Bibi" - the nickname by which the prime minister is known - has managed to normalise relations with four Arab countries: the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. A major victory in the field of international politics for Israel's still prime minister who, with the help of his White House ally Donald Trump, managed to take the Palestinian question off the negotiating table as a prerequisite for establishing relations with the various Arab states.

However, one pandemic and four peace treaties later, the election results of March 23 do not reflect Netanyahu's victories, as his bloc has failed to win the magic number of 61 seats needed in the House to form a coalition. The deadlock in the Israeli political landscape is once again a reality, and as if it were Groundhog Day, weeks of intense contacts between the different parties, bizarre negotiations and even unlikely pacts are expected.

But this year's elections bring with them a few new developments. Benny Gantz's party, "Blue and White", has gone from being the second political force in the country with 33 seats in the previous elections to only 8. Israeli society has severely penalised the former army chief for having made a pact with Netanyahu in the previous legislature while selling himself as the alternative to the prime minister. Another major novelty is the strong entry into Parliament of the Religious Zionist Party, with 6 seats, the first time that a supremacist, strongly racist and anti-Arab organisation has entered the Knesset. So the right-wingisation of the Israeli parliament is a fact to be reckoned with.

Finally, with 100% of the votes counted, the Israeli Parliament will be formed as follows: Netanyahu and his partners would win 52 seats, while the anti-Netanyahu bloc would win 57. The keys to forming a government would be in the hands of the right-wing Yamina with seven and the Islamist Raam, led by Mansour Abbas, with four.

But the composition of a coalition is a constant obstacle course. The head of the Religious Zionist Party, Bezalel Smotrich, announced that "there will be no right-wing government with the backing of Mansour Abbas, period", closing the door to a possible union between Israel's Islamist and Jewish religious parties.

For its part, the anti-Netanyahu bloc, with a fair majority in parliament, can aspire to control the presidency of the House, and has already raised the possibility of passing a bill that would prevent an impeached candidate from running for head of government. Netanyahu would thus be barred from running again if he were to force a fifth election.

The political sphere in Israel is in turmoil, with Israeli President Reuven Rivlin announcing that he will not begin consultations on the formation of a government until April 5. On the same day, Prime Minister Netanyahu will have to sit in the dock on three counts of bribery, fraud and abuse of power.