Israeli annexation of part of the West Bank could lead to an Intifada
Faced with the possibility of Israel's annexation of parts of the occupied West Bank, two former directors of the Shin Bet, Israel's internal security service, told Efe that the Palestinian reaction could trigger an escalation of violence equal to or worse than that of the second Intifada. This was promised by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; authorized by the White House; included in the coalition agreement that formed the new Executive and now preparations are being finalized.
The annexation of part of the territory of the occupied West Bank seems more possible than ever and, although it has cooled down a little in recent days due to US domestic policy issues, everything seems to indicate that in the coming months Israel will declare its sovereignty over the Jordan Valley or over some of the main settlements. Although, so far, the pressure against this measure has been through declarations and diplomatic statements and some threats to interrupt cooperation or revoke peace treaties, the possible consequences on the ground have not yet been noticed and could be the most serious, warn analysts and experts.
"There is no doubt that the West Bank will take over, that there will be more attacks, many riots and an increase in the level of violence," Yaakov Peri, who in addition to leading the Shin Bet for six years was a member of parliament and minister of science and technology, told Efe. Asked about the magnitude of this possible escalation of violence, he said that the annexation "could cause a third intifada or something similar" and warned that "the security situation could worsen even before the annexation takes place, just with the announcement that the process is starting".
A few weeks ago, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas warned in a speech that he would disrupt security cooperation with Israel, an important factor of stability in the West Bank, where Palestinian security forces are actively working to thwart plans by the Islamist movement Hamas or other organizations to carry out attacks against Israelis.
"I think Abbas' words are just words, and I doubt he will carry them out, but if annexation becomes a reality, I do believe that cooperation can be disrupted, something that could trigger an uncontrollable chaos," Peri adds.
"I think it will start in the West Bank, around the settlements, and with attacks from Gaza. Then it will depend on the Israeli reaction, which will have to protect its citizens, but sooner or later, I think that if we don't create some kind of hope or political horizon for the Palestinians, we will see this violence in Israeli cities," predicts Ami Ayalon, who served for five years as director of Shin Bet.
Ayalon is part of a group of more than 200 former high-ranking officials from the army, police and intelligence services called Commanders for the Security of Israel, which has positioned itself against annexation. For him, the consequences on Palestinian politics would be reflected in the level of violence on the ground.
If the annexation takes place, he believes, Abbas will lose what little legitimacy he has left among the Palestinians, who already see him as a collaborator of Israel. "It is obvious that the Palestinian National Authority would cease to exist as a political power and, once it loses control over its organizations, there are hundreds of people with weapons, who use them today to fight Hamas and tomorrow will use them to fight us," he adds.
However, he warns, there is a worse scenario that differs from the internal popular uprisings of the past and consists of "large-scale (planned from outside) attacks by Salafist cells, linked to al-Qaeda terrorist groups or the Islamic state, which don't need thousands of unarmed people in the streets but only someone who thinks bigger".
One factor they both agree on as another possible trigger for violence is the economic crisis facing Palestinians in both Gaza and the occupied West Bank, which has been made much worse by the coronavirus pandemic. "There is no doubt that unemployment and the economic crisis in the territories could create more tension. The current situation is very deteriorated and the problem is not only unemployment, but they are very dependent economies, which need the help of Israel and other countries," Peri said.
Ayalon, for his part, emphasizes that the motivations of those who may carry out attacks are not as linear as is often thought, and draws parallels with the so-called "Return Marches" that took place in Gaza in recent years, where, he says, many "did not do so because they wanted to free the land they believe belongs to them, but because of a combination of humiliation, hunger, poverty and loss of hope".