Istanbul clears the stage for Russia-Ukraine negotiations

The content optimism of the previous day has been partially justified at the negotiating table in Istanbul. Hosted by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the talks between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations produced a timid rapprochement, defined by the two initial positions adopted by the parties: Moscow's reduction of military activities in Ukraine and Kiev's definitive renunciation of NATO membership. A starting point conditioned by Vladimir Putin's incessant aggression.

The three-hour meeting served as a thermometer to measure the temperature of the negotiating teams, prone to dialogue after five weeks of invasion. The full-scale Russian offensive has failed miserably, with only one oblast capital, Kherson, under control and even losing positions in recent days. Ukrainian forces have repelled the advance with force, still encapsulated in several enclaves in the country. But the aggression has provoked an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, leaving behind almost four million displaced people, in addition to thousands of unquantified fatalities.

Erdoğan called at the outset for "concrete results" in what was the first high-level meeting in three weeks, and the most successful to date. In all this time, the negotiating teams had not seen each other face-to-face, but had seen each other on screen. Videoconference talks have been commonplace, but have been shrouded in the utmost secrecy by the parties. And they promise to continue in the coming days.

Scheduled to end on Wednesday, the negotiations finally ended on Tuesday with a considerable distance between the two delegations. Peace in Ukraine does not seem close, but this was the first contact that at least raised expectations. Present at the talks, the Russian Minister of Culture, Vladimir Medinsky, who is of Ukrainian origin, assessed the meeting as a "constructive" step in the search for a compromise. President Zelensky's chief advisor, Mykhailo Podolyak, also described the meeting as "constructive".

Two significant developments have emerged from Tuesday's meeting that give cause for optimism. Russia assures that it will "drastically reduce" its military activity in the northern city of Chernobyl, close to the border with Belarus, and in the capital, Kiev, which is heavily besieged but still under the control of Ukrainian forces. This was announced by Russian Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin, the 'number two' of the recently reappeared Sergey Shoigu, who was also present at the negotiations.

Ukraine, for its part, definitively renounces NATO membership, as well as the right to host military bases and armaments belonging to the Atlantic Alliance, thus acquiring a neutral status. These conditions were accepted in exchange for a series of defensive guarantees. The Kiev government would henceforth be able to count on military assistance from a small group of countries in the event of a new Russian attack, including Turkey, Israel, Poland and Canada. There would be no veto in such a scenario for hypothetical EU membership.

The central issue in the negotiations now becomes the territorial status of the Crimean peninsula, annexed by Russia in 2014, and the Donbass, which is partially occupied by separatist militias backed by Russian troops. The recent U-turn by the Russian defence ministry, which said it had completed 'the first phase' of the offensive and would focus its military action on the Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts, puts the spotlight on the situation in both regions, which will be the subject of new demands from the Kremlin.

But there is no room for hope as long as hostilities on the ground have not ceased. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has questioned Moscow's concessions. With this move, Russia may be buying time to regroup its forces and supply troops deployed in the eastern part of the country, who are hampered by logistical problems. Although early reports have echoed a timid withdrawal of forces to the periphery of some cities by the Russian army, the attacks continue.

Plumes of smoke and debris remain the norm in artillery-ravaged Ukraine. The devastating siege of Mariupol is about to take effect, allowing Russian forces to cut off the exit to the Sea of Azov, establishing a corridor between the Crimean peninsula and the Donbass, encapsulating Ukrainian troops. A scenario that would strengthen its position at the negotiating table.

It is important not to lose focus. According to Amnesty International, the Russian army is alleged to have committed war crimes in Ukraine by applying scorched-earth military tactics. A common Kremlin strategy, previously used in Chechnya and Syria. Agnes Callamard, the organisation's secretary general, said that Amnesty International has documented "an escalation of violations of human rights and humanitarian law, including indiscriminate or deliberate attacks against civilians".

The negotiating teams see a summit between Vladimir Putin and Volodymir Zelensky as possible. "The results of today's meeting are sufficient for a meeting at the leaders' level," declared a member of the Ukrainian delegation at the end of the negotiations in Istanbul. David Arakhamia was not the only one to make such a statement; the Kremlin's negotiating staff also expressed this view a day after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that a meeting would be "counterproductive" without advanced agreements on the table.

But Washington remains Moscow's preferred interlocutor. "Sooner or later we will have to talk to the United States," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Relations between the White House and the Kremlin are not broken, despite the coarse words of President Joe Biden, who called Putin a "butcher" and said he could not be in power for another minute. These statements were later qualified by members of his administration.

French President Emmanuel Macron advocated a different approach to Vladimir Putin in order not to encourage escalation. The French leader, who is up for re-election in two weeks in a decisive context for Europe in which he wants to assume political leadership of the continent, will hold a new telephone conversation with the Russian president on Tuesday afternoon to discuss the humanitarian situation. The diplomatic efforts never disappeared.