Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu questions the Erdoğan government's judicial manoeuvres

The Turkish Interior Ministry this week launched a judicial investigation against more than 500 officials linked to the Istanbul Municipality for allegedly maintaining links with terrorist organisations. This was confirmed by Minister Süleyman Soylu, who denied that the accusations were politically motivated and claimed that they were motivated by security concerns. A pretext used in the past has made it easier for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government to sift through the institutions.

The information in the Ministry's possession suggests that of the 557 people under investigation, at least 455 are linked to the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), some 80 are members of the Revolutionary People's Liberation Party-Front (DHKP-C), 20 are said to be from the Marxist-Leninist Communist Party (MLKP), at least two from the Maoist Communist Party (MKP) and the remaining people belong to the Gülen Movement (FETÖ), the main accused organiser of the failed 2016 coup d'état.

The ruling Islamist AKP's version of the story points in the direction of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, one of the most highly-regarded political leaders of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). The social democrat, seen as a potential rival to Erdoğan for the 2023 presidential election, is singled out for the recruitment of the officials under investigation. He has defended himself against these accusations from Ankara, at a press conference at the CHP headquarters, surrounded by 11 other mayors of the Kemalist party.

"I stand with my 86,000 comrades serving Istanbul, I will not let them oppress us," İmamoğlu assured. The Istanbul Municipality charged the central government for "being ruled by social media" and accused it of the presence of security threats: "If people with alleged links to terrorism wander around and find work in public institutions, it is not the problem of the Istanbul Municipality, but of the Ministry of Interior, which is primarily responsible for security.

İmamoğlu burst onto the national political scene after defeating Islamist Binali Yıldırım, his rival for the Istanbul mayoralty, in the 2019 municipal elections. The former prime minister, speaker of parliament and co-founder of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) with Erdoğan himself was eventually defeated by a virtually unknown candidate, who in recent months has been gaining ground in the public eye at a time when Erdoğan's leadership is more questioned than ever.

"If you detect people linked to terrorist organisations, let us know and we can do whatever is necessary. The most important ministries of the state should share information and documents related to the Istanbul Municipality, instead of fomenting political polemics," stressed İmamoğlu, who further stated that the mayor's office would protect the rights of its employees in court by fighting against those who have "committed crimes".

At the same time, the Turkish Public Prosecutor's Office is investigating the recruitment of PKK-related personnel in the Municipality of Istanbul. The thesis of the judiciary is that these recruitments have been made through an NGO called DIAYDER, close to the Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK), a group that serves as an umbrella for the various Kurdish branches. A group that serves as an umbrella for the various Kurdish branches. In the framework of this investigation, the authorities have arrested 23 suspects accused of transferring part of their salaries and municipal food vouchers to the families of PKK members.

Erdoğan's manoeuvre in Istanbul would be to consolidate his power in the most unfavourable context for the Islamist leader since he became president in 2014. Runaway inflation and the exponential fall of the Turkish lira against the US dollar have plunged Turkey into a deep economic crisis. A scenario in which the president's decisions have been decisive in terms of lowering interest rates at all costs.

According to the latest poll published by MetroPOLL, a pollster close to the AKP, if the presidential elections were held today, Erdoğan would get 36.6 per cent of the vote and Mayor İmamoğlu would amass 48.7 per cent. Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş is the leading political figure with 55.5 per cent of the vote. Today, the rulers of Turkey's two major cities, who belong to the opposition CHP party, would sweep the polls against the current president, who has been overwhelmed by the internal crisis.

These numbers would explain the proceedings against half a thousand workers of the Istanbul Municipality. A region that, along with Ankara, the ruling party lost during the 2019 municipal elections. The ballot boxes led Yavaş to control the capital, while İmamoğlu is gaining strength from Istanbul, the country's most populous city, which produces around 30% of the national GDP. These are decisive enclaves from which they are gaining ground to lead the country in the medium term.

For President Erdoğan, the loss of power in Istanbul not only had political implications, but also symbolic ones, as it is his hometown. It was also where he began his political career, serving as mayor between 1994 and 1998, and from there he made the definitive leap to the national stage. A trail that profiles such as that of İmamoğlu, the main target of the latest judicial proceedings against the opposition promoted by the executive, want to follow.