Jihadist terrorism hits far from the West and on the Internet
Jihadist terrorism, far from stopping, as the developed world has done during the pandemic, has increased its activity, although not in the eyes of Western public opinion, which is exclusively concerned with COVID-19. The increase in field operations in the Middle East, but also in Africa, and the intensive recruitment of young people via the Internet are the most exploited assets by Daesh, Al Qaeda and their related groups during the months of quarantine.
At a time of "transition" of jihadism, which had regained some power after its latest defeats, such as the fall of the EI caliphate or the death of its charismatic leader Abu Bakr Al Bagdadi, the health crisis offers "an opportunity for absolute chaos to try to impose its agenda". "If we analyse the communiqués issued in recent weeks in the wake of the health emergency, we see that they are going to take advantage of the crisis," as they did "in the wake of the so-called Arab springs, which sadly became a winter," Carola García-Calvo, a Senior Analyst in the Programme on Violent Radicalisation and Global Terrorism at the Elcano Royal Institute, told Efe.
But circumstances have changed a lot since then, and although "it is never ruled out", the option of jihadist groups committing attacks like those they have perpetrated up to now is for the moment "very complicated, apart from specific actions".
The current situation imposes unfavourable conditions for the commission of a major attack in Europe: no crowding, physical distancing and control of the streets by police and military. Even so, "the European intelligence services have not lowered their guard by a long shot," Spanish colonel Pedro Baños, an expert in geostrategy, security, intelligence and terrorism, told Efe.
Global terrorism is taking advantage of the moment to expand its operations in other parts of the world that have run out of Western soldiers, who have to deal with internal issues at the expense of an international dimension. Many countries have withdrawn their troops from the international coalition fighting against Daesh in Iraq, such as France, Germany, Canada and Spain, as well as in other places, such as the Sahel.
"There, France, for example, not only has to relocate troops for this reason, but also because its military has fallen ill," says the expert. The action area is the areas where, when pandemic arrived, jihadist terrorism "was very widespread, with Southeast Asia as an important area of activity (...) Also in Syria and Iraq with very high numbers, and Africa, not only in the West, but in other areas, such as the North, Libya and, especially, in the triple border between Niger, Nigeria and Mauritania".
Baños agrees that both Al Qaeda and Daesh are still very active. "Daesh is carrying out military operations of some importance in the specific case of Syria and Iraq, but also in areas of Africa, especially in the Sahel. Al-Qaeda is also present as its subsidiary in Syria," he explains.
In this context, it is very important that international cooperation is maintained and that Western countries do not abandon nations such as Iraq, which has warned of a significant increase in Daesh's actions on its territory in recent months, coinciding with a recent Pentagon report in the same vein. In the Kurdish area of Iraq alone, in the north of the country, 85 attacks have been recorded in the first four months of the year, resulting in 70 deaths, 161 injuries and 41 kidnappings, according to the region's security forces minister. And in May the actions have gone up in many areas of the country.
In addition to attacks, Daesh has begun burning down grain fields, which may reduce and even wipe out harvests and cause food problems in the coming months that terrorists could exploit on social networks. This is precisely where jihadism is getting the most benefit from the pandemic: the hardening of its discourse, with its message that COVID-19 is "a punishment from Allah", aimed at recruiting future warriors, explains García-Calvo.
Baños also refers to the messages launched by Jihadism that the pandemic "is a punishment for having been bad believers" and in which they "are happy to see this capitalist or mercantilist system of free trade damaged", which they consider "the enemy".
In this context, the recruitment of potential fighters is a top priority at a time when internet use has skyrocketed. "In terms of radicalization, the social distance imposed on us means that many young people, who are now its main target (and the figures tell us that they are the most vulnerable group for recruitment), are spending more hours at the computer and that this medium is being used to spread its message more and more to radicalize young people all over the world".
According to the international coalition in Iraq, 6,000 Twitter accounts belonging to Daesh's affiliates were removed in March and April, a decisive effort "to stem the tide of terrorism and extremism" currently sweeping the country.
García-Calvo also points out that "the precariousness of the states and their health and social welfare systems" in many of the countries where terrorism currently hits hardest "with holes that can be used by these organizations. "From a welfare perspective, they can also win the minds and hearts of their potential new recruits," she said.