José Manuel Sáenz Rotko: "Scholz could be as successful as Merkel"

Olaf Scholz has become the new chancellor of Germany, ushering in a new era in the country after 16 years of Angela Merkel's mandate. José Manuel Sáenz Rotk, professor of International Relations at the Universidad Pontificia de Comillas and expert on Germany, analyses the new German political horizon in "De Cara al Mundo".

As an expert on Germany, what is your assessment of the formation of this tripartite government?

First of all, we would have to talk about an exercise in normality. In Germany we have not been accustomed to complications in the creation of governments; sometimes it has taken longer, sometimes less. The first time we have had a three-party government we have seen that the negotiations have been relatively quick, also due to the circumstances of the crisis, which probably required it. We have a coalition never seen as such, a three-way, progressive coalition, in principle with the two social democratic and green components. However, with a third component, the liberals, who have the handbrake at their disposal through the finance ministry. A coalition, therefore, with slightly different worldviews, with different expectations, but with the capacity, as they have shown, to reach a consensus in terms of the programme for this legislature, and with the need for all three to hold out for four years, it is a diverse coalition, but none of the three can afford, in principle, to dissociate themselves from the commitment they have made.

How well the Germans do these political things, this handing over of power, this farewell to Angela Merkel, that shows high-class politics.

There is undoubtedly a high political culture in Germany. It has existed since the mid-1960s, since the time of Willy Brandt, and there is respect, as we have seen, all the members of parliament have been able to applaud Angela Merkel and to appreciate her management, with her successes and failures at the head of the government, with the exception of one party that has been treated with a cordon sanitaire by all the others in Germany.

Was alternation necessary after so many years of conservative governments, with Helmut Kohl and Angela Merkel at the head?

Well, let's not forget that Angela Merkel has been governing in coalition with parties that were not conservative.

Olaf Scholz was her finance minister until a few months ago?

He was vice-chancellor, the SPD had been a kind of junior partner and I don't think we can talk about the government led by Angela Merkel with one or the other parties either, as a conservative government has been a government of the centre and in fact, the situation in her own party, the CDU, the centre right conservative party in Germany, the disastrous situation in that party, The disastrous situation of this party, now without leadership and without a clear political vision, has to do with the fact that it did not clearly defend the traditional values of its party, but rather a pragmatic, very centrist and often very social democratic approach, and precisely this fact kept it in the leadership for a long time and made it impossible for social democracy in Germany to achieve good results. Who needs to vote for the Social Democrats if the chancellor already partly defended these positions.

This also led to tensions with her Bavarian partners on many occasions.

The Bavarian partners are the CSU, a little more conservative, perhaps based more on the defence of certain traditional values like Bavaria itself, and these differences have been particularly noticeable in the last few months of the election campaign and will be even more noticeable in the coming months, as there are elections in Bavaria next year and this is the first time in history that this party, the party that has always been in Bavaria, is putting its leadership on the line.

Is Olaf Scholz's personality and experience a guarantee that he will become chancellor and be able to govern this tripartite party? He is a candidate that nobody expected a few months ago.

It is true that not even he expected what has just happened, because just six months ago he started with a 16% share of the vote. He has been lucky, his opponent has made it easy for him, he has also had some successes, what is true is that he has a lot of experience, he has been mayor of Hamburg for many years, with all that that entails, leading a federal state in Germany. Moreover, he has been vice-chancellor and minister in a very important portfolio in the Merkel government, and he has experience. Personally, I think he has leadership qualities, and very similar to those of Merkel, without big words without big emotions and with a style that Germans generally like. Let's remember that when Merkel came to government 16 years ago she was considered the creation of Helmut Kohl, nobody knew her and there were doubts about her leadership capacity and she ended up proving it, so I think Scholz can have the same prospects and probably the same success.

Will the liberal Linder in finance be more flexible or will he apply his strict budget control concepts at all levels?

Probably both, he will have to suffer a certain schizophrenia from the point of view of his political principles and he should save and not spend more than he takes in while maintaining a zero deficit. On the other hand, to make this government work, which has set itself the transformation of the digitalisation agenda, to move forward in protecting GDP, to make the economy sustainable through a green transition, with this programme it needs to spend. Therein lies one of the key elements that will define the strength and stability of this government, the stress and the cost of implementing the 177-page programme that has been presented and the willingness or unwillingness of whoever is managing the money to open the coffers.

I was thinking of the European Union, for example, a country like Spain when it comes to debt, deficit, expenditure, recovery funds...

What the states, in more general terms, in the south, including France, advocate is the mutualisation of debt, contracting European debt and making us all responsible for it. Olaf Scholz in recent months has hinted that he might be flexible in making what is already being done right now with the bailout fund, which is to mutualise the debt, last over time. It is not so clear to me that the liberals are willing to go along with this vision, but that remains to be seen. For the moment, the coalition has reached a basic agreement for the onslaught and this basic agreement will have to be worked out in detail as we go along and we will see.

Perhaps the one who is a little out of her depth is the leader of the Greens in the foreign affairs portfolio on issues such as NATO....

She is inexperienced, but she is a good learner and can be given a vote of confidence. The Greens wanted to take on the foreign affairs portfolio, they believe that environmental protection and ecological transition policy is not a domestic policy, it is necessarily international because the climate is also international. Therefore, they will be advocates of increasing environmental production standards, the party's candidate is not a representative of the founders of the environmental movement and the green party in Germany, she is a pragmatic environmentalist, ecology is part of a global approach to politics, I don't necessarily see a contradiction between her party membership and representing Germany's interest in NATO in the line that Germany has been a member of NATO in the last decades. Incidentally, Joschka Fischer two decades ago was foreign minister for the Green party and Germany did not leave NATO and did not question the maintenance of American nuclear weapons on German soil.

Is this German government a priori good for the European Union?

The new government has defined Germany's role in the EU as an anchor of stability, the role it wants to play will be one of continuity, seeking a cohesive, strong and more autonomous European Union. It is becoming clear that Europe's role in the world must be strengthened as a global player; it is not easy, but the will is there. The other partners can look forward to a Germany that will continue and that, after 16 years of Merkel, has managed to reduce the suspicions of some of its neighbours and partners in the Union regarding the leadership it wanted to play. Because it has been a constructive and win-win leadership and I have no doubt that this will be Germany's foreign policy approach to Europe for the next four years.

There is talk that Germany could restore relations with Morocco - to what extent would this be good for everyone?

The impasse or hiatus that exists at the moment due to cyclical issues will be closed and will remain a hiatus. Neither side has any interest in prolonging this diplomatic disagreement over time; these will be discreet negotiations that will be conducted away from the public eye. The restoration of full diplomatic relations and the return of ambassadors will be announced in a few weeks' time.