Kenya threatens a new election rerun after Ruto's narrow victory

One of the thousands of reviews that swarm the tourist websites describes the Bomas Auditorium in Kenya as an interesting place "to learn about the dance and dress of each culture, eat and drink". However, the user points out that, "if you come from visiting other places very early in the morning, you will fall asleep because the show lasts about three hours". The show offered on Monday by the country's top political representatives did not last that long. In the auditorium, located 10 kilometres from the capital, Nairobi, the presidential candidates gathered with their respective campaign teams to hear the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) chairman Wafula Chebukati announce the results of the 9 August elections. 

The hitherto deputy president, William Ruto, candidate of Kenya Kwanza (Kenya First, in Swahili), made good his initial lead over his rival, Raila Odinga, former prime minister and candidate of the Azimio La Umoja (Aspiration for Unity, also in Swahili) coalition. With the majority of the vote, but with a slim margin of 50.49% over Odinga's 48.85% and a mere 230,000 votes, according to the Electoral Commission's tally, Ruto was named president-elect in front of a packed Bomas of Kenya. The packed auditorium turned into a battleground as those present learned that there was no quorum within the IEBC to decree a winner. Rumours of ballot rigging spread again, as they did in the last presidential election five years ago.

Several members of Odinga's team pounced on Chebukati and two of his colleagues on the Electoral Commission to prevent them from uttering the words "Ruto winner". Afterwards, blows were thrown, chairs were thrown and insults were hurled. Discord. The security forces had to intervene to separate them and prevent further damage. In the end, Kenya First candidate William Ruto was able to be named the winner and sent a message of unity: "I will work for all Kenyans. We will strive to deliver on our promises. We will serve everyone equally. This will be your government, the government of the people of Kenya". The vice-president used the occasion to defend the fairness of the electoral process and a visibly favourable vote count.

In order to win in the first round and to avoid the second round, a candidate must win more than 50% of the vote and win at least 25% of the vote in 24 of the 47 counties into which Kenya's vast territory is divided, according to electoral law. According to IEBC figures, Ruto meets all the requirements. The 55-year-old wealthy maize businessman managed, in his first presidential bid, to displace Odinga, who had six unsuccessful attempts behind him and was backed by outgoing president Uhuru Kenyatta, an ally until 2018. Kenyatta gained a strong foothold in the central part of the country, wresting from his rival the stronghold of the Kenyan bush, the country's main national voting ground and home to the Kikuyu people. Although Nairobi province eluded him. 

Ruto's platform, Kenya First, did not only come out on top in the presidential onslaught. In the 9 August elections, the Kenyan people also chose members of Congress and the Senate, as well as governors and legislators for provincial parliaments. The Electoral Commission announced very positive results for the vice-president's movement, which is said to have beaten Odinga's party in both houses. In the Senate, with 33 seats to Aspiration for Unity's 32; in the National Assembly, with 147 seats to Odinga's coalition's 146.  

The vote count took a week, seven days in which the atmosphere on the streets began to heat up with nervousness about the outcome. "The process doesn't always take that long, but it was within the constitutional timeframe," Chatham House researcher Fergus Kell told Atalayar. One of the problems with the 2017 presidential election, which was annulled by the Supreme Court, was that the result was announced after only three days, before the transmission process was completed. "So the IEBC has tried to take its time this year to prioritise accurate verification and minimise errors," explains Kell.

But the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, which was singled out five years ago as being primarily responsible for the re-run election, has again missed the mark. The seven members of the body held a closed-door meeting hours before the results were announced, under tight security, in an attempt to reach unanimity and close ranks. To be sure, Chebukati avoided showing any cracks. But he was unable to do so. Minutes after naming Ruto the winner, IEBC vice-chairperson Juliana Cherera and three other commissioners distanced themselves from Chebukati's decision, calling the count "opaque". Kell reminds this media outlet that this is not the first time there have been divisions in the commission: "One commissioner even resigned in 2017 ahead of the October re-run vote." 

Taking advantage of the fracture within the Electoral Commission, the candidate harmed by the first count, Raila Odinga, has charged in an official statement against the chairman of the institution, Wafula Chebukati, for allegedly concealing the results: "We understand that only Mr Chebukati had access to the presidential vote count.  He denied all the commissioners access to that information until he suddenly appeared before the commissioners late in the afternoon to present them with a fait accompli". He also stated that "unless a decision is made unanimously, the decision (...) will be made by a majority of the members present and voting". A balance that now favours the Aspiration for Unity candidate. 

Odinga's candidacy is following "constitutional and legal channels and processes to invalidate the illegal and unconstitutional pronouncement" of the IEBC, according to the note. The opposition leader will challenge the results, initiating a new legal battle similar to the one experienced in 2017, when the Supreme Court, the country's highest court, annulled the results of the last presidential election and ordered a re-run after proving the Electoral Commission's negligence, which would eventually decree the re-election of outgoing president Uhuru Kenyatta, who is now serving the maximum number of terms. The same scenario is likely to be repeated. After that experience, few Kenyans trust the Electoral Commission.

"It is important that the judicial process and a likely challenge through the Supreme Court is respected," argues the Chatham House researcher. "We should applaud the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) for showing greater transparency, but we must also recognise that it is incumbent on the challengers to provide evidence for their claims of unfair treatment." The evidence shown by Odinga's campaign team will go a long way to shedding light on the process, although there has not yet been any disclosure in this regard. 

In its statement, Odinga's team opted to calm the waters after hours of heavy community clashes in the streets: "Let no one take the law into their own hands". Tension was simmering around Mathare and other pro-Odinga neighbourhoods in Nairobi, where a series of protests broke out just after the results were announced and left a trail of burning tyres, according to EFE news agency. Demonstrations have also been taking place in the western Kenyan city of Kisumu, on the shores of Lake Victoria, home to a majority of the Luo ethnic group, who would have held the country's presidency for the first time had Odinga won. 

Kenya has experienced turmoil during elections. In the 2007 presidential election, more than 1,200 people lost their lives, and another 100 died in 2017. "It is important not to generalise or stereotype about political violence in Kenya: it is true that there was significant violence after the 2007 elections, and some clashes with state security forces in 2013 and 2017, but the drivers of this violence are complex and linked to the intersection of ethnicity and inequality," says Kell. "On this occasion, the campaign and voting period was fairly peaceful, and ethnic identity politics has been a minor feature of national campaigns".