EU sees China as the solution to stop Putin

Ukraine continues to resist the Russian invasion. Moscow's attacks have not stopped and they have not even respected the ceasefire approved to allow civilians to leave through the humanitarian corridors. In recent hours Ukraine has also denounced the shelling of a children's hospital in Mariupol, where at least 17 people have been reported wounded.

The incessant Russian attacks have provoked condemnation from the European Union. The sanctions have been joined by the EU-27 sending arms and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and although in the short and medium term this is an effective measure, the Ukrainian country cannot sustain this war situation any longer, at least on its own. 

This is why the EU has turned to China for mediation and diplomacy. Aware of the Chinese giant's influence over Russia, Europe is now looking to China as a country that can play an important role in mediating between Moscow and Kiev. In the words of the High Representative for the European Union, Josep Borrell, China can play an important role "not as a mediator, because it is obvious that it is much closer to Russia's position, but it can play an influential role (...) it is a country that can play a very important role, if it wants to, in the search for a diplomatic solution to end the crisis".

It is necessary to be aware of how the world is currently configured in order to understand the game of 21st century diplomacy. Although the fall of the Berlin Wall marked a before and after in the geopolitical configuration, the rivalry between the United States and Russia has remained latent. To this must now be added the incursion of China, a country that seeks to expand its influence globally through trade, infrastructure building and investment. In this scenario, Russia and China have been able to maintain relations that have been characterised by convenience and utility rather than hegemony.

 This new order is also taking place at a time when the European Union is losing influence in the international arena almost exponentially, with all the consequences that this may entail in the political, economic and social spheres. Now, in the face of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, this order is coming to the fore, and it is here that we can observe the main movements of international leaders in pursuit of peace, but also for the maintenance of values and, therefore, of international influence.

In this case, the Asian giant continues to abstain from rejecting Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It did so at the first session of the Security Council last Friday when Russia decided to veto a possible resolution to the conflict. Subsequently, Beijing again reaffirmed its position at the UN General Assembly, where China maintained its abstention, thus demonstrating its position on the invasion. 

In February, a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping concluded with a decisive sentence: relations between China and Russia 'have no limits'. This was evidenced in a joint communiqué issued after the meeting in which Jinping put in writing his support for Russia's demand that NATO should curb its expansion into Eastern Europe, something Putin demanded last December in the framework of Moscow's proposed new security agreement with NATO and the United States.

In it, Putin demanded that NATO should commit to ending military operations in Eastern European, Central Asian and Eastern European countries. For this reason, the Alliance declared that any Russian incursion would have "massive consequences". Two months later, Moscow has launched a military invasion of Ukraine that is now in its second week. 

Initial reactions from the United States and the European Union were characteristically peaceful in military terms. Sanctions were the main responses from the West. However, Russia's massive attacks, not only against military but also civilian enclaves, have prompted the West to react beyond economic sanctions.

But how do economic sanctions actually affect Moscow? The reality is that these measures can do serious damage to the Russian economy, which, even with China's backing, will not be able to escape their consequences. Likewise, China does not want to jeopardise its harmony with Europe, but neither does it want to damage its relations with Russia. This is a complex situation that makes it take cautious steps when it comes to taking a position on Moscow's invasion. 

In this sense, China has given a somewhat cool geopolitical reception to the Russian invasion. In addition to abstentions, Beijing has called for "restraint". In a conversation with his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, and his German counterpart, Olaf Scholz, Chinese President Xi Jinping argued that the priority in this situation is to ensure that "it does not get out of control (...) China is hurt to see the flames of war flaring up in Europe", he declared.

However, China has not yet referred to the Russian incursion as an "invasion" and insists on both "respect for the territorial integrity of all countries" and Russia's "legitimate security demands". Beijing does not want a war, this situation is not in its own interests, and for this reason China is not in favour of it either.  Despite this, the reality is that, as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi pointed out, relations between China and Russia are "rock solid". 

From Spain, the government believes that the Chinese move "is interesting" in order to begin to build a peaceful solution. They maintain that China has no interest in backing an armed conflict and recall that trade relations between Beijing and European countries are much more important than with Moscow.

While the EU-27 increasingly support China's proposal to mediate in this situation, Europe has adopted by leaps and bounds a policy that many believed would remain paralysed: the European defence policy and the increase in the arms budget.

In this sense, Putin has achieved something that was not contemplated by the Union, and that is this shift towards a defence policy that is committed to increasing the arms budget, as well as reducing Russia's energy dependence. 

The heads of state and government will meet in Paris to discuss these new proposals, which include "strengthening and developing the European defence industry (...) substantially increasing defence spending" and making way for the "strategic compass" designed by Borrell.

In Borrell's words, "we all prefer butter to cannons, but 50 years ago EU countries spent 4% of their GDP on defence, and now they are at 1.5% of their GDP", a situation that clashes with the investments of the United States, Russia, China and India in the arms budget. Borrell told the plenary session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg that "Europeans need the sound of bombs falling on Kiev at five in the morning 15 days ago to wake them up from their dream of well-being". 

In the meantime, Ukraine is facing a complex situation. Russia's invasion has shown that Kiev does not have international allies but rather partners. Reflecting this situation are Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky's efforts to get the West to take a direct role in the conflict, for example by approving the no-fly zone or giving the green light for Ukraine to join the Union and NATO, which would bring Europe fully into the war.