Lebanon, an unpredictable future

Pessimism and despair have conquered every corner of Lebanon, one week after an explosion in the port of Beirut killed more than 160 people and injured more than 6,000. This tragedy has reopened old wounds in Lebanese society, which, over the past few days, has taken to the streets to demand answers. The demonstrators blame the incompetence of the ruling elite for this disaster and call for a complete reorganisation of the political system in Lebanon, which is dominated by family dynasties that have been in power for the last fifteen years. In this complex scenario, the Prime Minister of Lebanon, Hassan Diab, announced on Monday the resignation of the entire government after the increase of violence in the protests that have been taking place in the country after last Tuesday's explosion.

"Today we are responding to citizens' desire for transparency from those who have been responsible for the disaster that has been hidden for seven years and their desire for real change. In the face of this reality... I announce the resignation of this government," said Diab, who said this tragedy was the result of "endemic corruption" and has called for those responsible for this disaster to be brought to justice. 

"I discovered that corruption is greater than the state and that the state cannot dominate it." With these words, the former Lebanese Prime Minister presented his resignation, opening up a new scenario in a country already devastated by an economic crisis, which has left 75% of Lebanese inhabitants on the brink of the abyss, 33% unemployed and around 15%, in other words at least one million people, below the poverty line. "The resignation of Lebanon's government does not mean early elections. It means the appointment of a new prime minister by the existing parliament, and all the political problems that goes with it," warned Gregg Carlstrom of The Economist.

After his resignation, Reuters news agency released a report stating that Lebanese security officials had warned the prime minister and the president more than a month ago of the danger of storing such a large amount of ammonium nitrate at Beirut airport. A report by the Directorate General of State Security on the events leading up to the explosion included a small reference to a private letter sent to President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Hassan Diab on 20 July, according to information gathered by this agency. 

"There was a danger that this material, if stolen, could be used in a terrorist attack. At the end of the investigation, the attorney general prepared a final report that was sent to the authorities," an official who took part in drafting the letter and who has refused to be identified told this media outlet. "I warned them that this could destroy Beirut if it exploded," he added.  According to the same source consulted by Reuters, the letter sent to Lebanon's president and prime minister followed a series of memos and letters sent to the country's courts over the past six years by port, customs and security officials, repeatedly urging judges to order the removal of ammonium nitrate from the capital's port. 

The story of this tragedy began seven years ago, when a Russian-chartered ship with a Moldovan sloop travelling from Georgia to Mozambique docked in Beirut.  After a series of incidents, it was inspected by port technicians who allegedly found deficiencies and prohibited it from resuming operations. In Beirut, port authorities seized the ship after finding multiple deficiencies, according to a maritime news article published in 2014. A photo from the same year shows some of the 2,750 bags of ammonium nitrate, which seven years later have been photographed in the warehouse that finally exploded, according to the New York Times. The Rhosus was condemned to oblivion and its cargo was stored in the port of Beirut. According to this newspaper, this ship began to sink in February 2018.

In January 2020, according to Reuters, a judge decided to launch an official investigation when he discovered that hangar number 12 was not being guarded and was aware that the hazardous material being stored there could endanger the population.  On June 4, state security ordered port authorities to provide guards in this part of the port and to appoint a director for the warehouse, according to the state security report and security officials. "The problem has to do with negligence, irresponsibility, poor storage and judgment," the official interviewed by this agency said. 

The tragedy that struck Beirut a week ago has unleashed a wave of resignations and increased the anger of Lebanese society. Lebanese political investigator Nadum Houry explained to NPR that in the country of cedars "corruption has now become part of the DNA of the country's political system, the so-called sectarian consociational system. You can't appoint a single official, of whatever rank, without going through the clientelistic sectarian networks of what we call the zuama, the sectarian leaders. Now, why is this corrupt? Because that means that you cannot hold a single official accountable without going through these traditional sectarian patronage networks.

In his opinion, the only way out of this crisis is "to have a government made up of people outside the existing political class. "It would be an exceptional situation for two or three years just to stabilize the ship and pass a fair electoral law and have elections in two or three years, which hopefully will see the emergence of new political parties," he predicted. In this scenario of instability following the resignation of the government, France believes that Lebanon should opt for the rapid formation of a new cabinet that can deal with the current economic crisis and the reconstruction of the capital.  For his part, the President of Lebanon, Michel Aoun, has accepted the resignation of the government presented by the country's Prime Minister and has urged him to continue working in office until the formation of a new Executive. 

The Government's resignation has not appeased the anger of the thousands of Lebanese who took to the streets again yesterday, nor has it ended the sadness of the people who have lost their homes or their families in this explosion. This event has added to the collapse of the economy, endemic corruption and a health crisis caused by COVID-19 which, at this moment, threatens part of the population of the country of cedars, where more than one and a half million refugees live. 

Meanwhile, Lebanon continues to suffer the consequences of an unprecedented economic crisis. The executive director of the United Nations World Food Programme, David Beasley, warned on Monday that Beirut could run out of bread in two and a half weeks. "I am very concerned about the lack of bread in Lebanon, because 85 per cent of the grain passes through the destroyed port of Beirut," he said before noting that the port area could be operational in less than a month.  Beasley has also reported that his agency will supply over 17,500 tonnes of wheat flour within two weeks, which would be enough to put bread on every Lebanese table for about 20 days.